Covid end-game - does it even exist?

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forzamilansafc said:
Travel restrictions are the main issue personally, apart from that I’m not really fussed with how things are. Masks don’t bother me the short time we have to wear them and pubs have been better since they re opened, as you say no standing ten deep at the bar and instead it’s table service (at most places) like on the continent which is far better
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Yup. Travel is a good shout.
 


Doberman said:
it's not worth the hassle tbh. We've considered meeting at my mate's house. Only 7 of us. My mate has just moved into his new place though, doesn't really know the neighbours, and doesn't want to risk any local snitches getting their kicks out of reporting us.

That's the World we live in.
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I'm f***ing amazed you can get 7 of you free to meet up at the same time. Don't think we've managed that outside of stags for the last 5 or 6 years.
dangermows said:
They not flirt with you when they come over like? :(
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The Mrs is scary. Resting **** face.
 
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rudd said:
I'm all for getting busy living, but it has to be with changes at the moment. SARS-CoV-2 is here and we need to live with it, I doubt it will go away for many years.

Hygiene and distancing is the primary weapon against the virus at the moment, it won't always be. We have a far better understanding of influenza viruses which has enabled treatments such as oseltamivir and zanamivir to be found in addition to the primary medical intervention, vaccines, as well as supportive care. We only really have prevention and supportive care for COVID-19.

Vaccine will be a huge part of the "end game", when they're available, and it won't be anywhere near as long as the post fears.

The influenza vaccine is extremely effective against the viruses it's targeted against and comparing vaccines for flu and covid-19 doesn't really make sense imo.
Flu is caused by hundreds of different types of influenza viruses, each with their own surface proteins which are what the body reacts to to attack and kill. There's 4 strains A, B, C D with multiple subtypes of each. Type A in theory has almost 200 different combinations of surface proteins (different combinations of H and N) and we have seen about 2/3 of them. We simply can't vaccinate people against all influenza viruses.
SARS-CoV-2 is one virus and whilst there may be slightly different strains, the surface proteins are the same. It doesn't take a genius to see the difference between flu and covid-19 vaccinations.

The difficulty we have with Covid-19 is that you pass it on before you show symptoms whereas with flu you are most infectious after symptoms show so, again, the best weapon we have is prevention. Reducing the chances of transmission by simple means, by as many people as reasonably possible is the main intervention at the moment. So in order to protect your elderly mam, your mate with diabetes, the carer who comes in to see your nana and everyone else they have contact with, we must follow simple preventative measures.
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Please explain in the same detail as to why humans have become the most susceptible species on the planet to both viral and bacterial infection.
 
Can't go on holiday (to many places)
Can't meet up with multiple groups of friends (up here anyway)
Can't go to weddings/funerals
Can't go to the football
Can't listen to music in the pub
 
Edinburgh Black Cat said:
Can't go on holiday (to many places)
Can't meet up with multiple groups of friends (up here anyway)
Can't go to weddings/funerals
Can't go to the football
Can't listen to music in the pub
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Good lead in to what I was going to say. What we have lost with Covid is freedom and a huge amount of social contact, across the board. Living the other end of the country to my family, I have only seen them once this year and with the new rules it is unlikely now I'll be going up in October as there are too many of us. Same for meeting friends with kids. More than 6, all out.

Anyone saying the world has changed for ever or "this is the new normal" is talking bollocks. History has shown that people want more and more freedom and people never accept having those freedoms restricted for long. Yes there is a clear reason for it now, but it is unsustainable from a economic point of view, but mostly from a social point of view.

Then there are masks. People put up with them, get used to them but really don't like them. For me, the best evidence is supermarkets. Put on in one doorway, taken off the second they leave the shop. There are very few who continue to wear going across the car park. When outside, mask usage is very low. I cycled across a coastal path last weekend and saw perhaps 2 people - it was fairly busy.

We will get back to how we were because there is the overall will in society to do so. The differences will be, perhaps more attention to hygiene & hand washing and working from home being more accepted. People want the freedom to wear what they like, go where they like and meet who they like. It will happen, the question is when.

Covid-19 leaves many people unaffected, so the big question is, does that bread immunity. If so then it will help protect the vulnerable as the virus has nowhere to go. Or the ultimate is a vaccine. Even if a minority of anti-vax people refuse, a low proportion of people in society is fine when the R rate is not that high. Although they may puff up their chest and refuse to ever have it done, when they find other countries will deny entry, making the stance against THEM or being able to go on holiday - holiday will win for most.

This bit sounds heartless and I'm aware this could involve people I know and care about, but ultimately everyone will get this at some point. If we can not generate some sort of immunity then people will die like many other diseases. As social people, it is difficult to protect the vulnerable for ever, short of locking them away. Even then people are still getting it through relatives, carers etc. It will hit a lot of old people more and perhaps reduce overall life expectancy but there is only so far the general world wide population will go. Personally i don't think it will come to that and a vaccination will be the answer.

I think in 2 years time we will be looking back at this thinking '2020, what a shit year' but carrying on like we mostly did in 2019, remembering things that seemed crazy like field hospitals for testing and treatment in Ikea car parks.
 
DaveH said:
Good lead in to what I was going to say. What we have lost with Covid is freedom and a huge amount of social contact, across the board. Living the other end of the country to my family, I have only seen them once this year and with the new rules it is unlikely now I'll be going up in October as there are too many of us. Same for meeting friends with kids. More than 6, all out.

Anyone saying the world has changed for ever or "this is the new normal" is talking bollocks. History has shown that people want more and more freedom and people never accept having those freedoms restricted for long. Yes there is a clear reason for it now, but it is unsustainable from a economic point of view, but mostly from a social point of view.

Then there are masks. People put up with them, get used to them but really don't like them. For me, the best evidence is supermarkets. Put on in one doorway, taken off the second they leave the shop. There are very few who continue to wear going across the car park. When outside, mask usage is very low. I cycled across a coastal path last weekend and saw perhaps 2 people - it was fairly busy.

We will get back to how we were because there is the overall will in society to do so. The differences will be, perhaps more attention to hygiene & hand washing and working from home being more accepted. People want the freedom to wear what they like, go where they like and meet who they like. It will happen, the question is when.

Covid-19 leaves many people unaffected, so the big question is, does that bread immunity. If so then it will help protect the vulnerable as the virus has nowhere to go. Or the ultimate is a vaccine. Even if a minority of anti-vax people refuse, a low proportion of people in society is fine when the R rate is not that high. Although they may puff up their chest and refuse to ever have it done, when they find other countries will deny entry, making the stance against THEM or being able to go on holiday - holiday will win for most.

This bit sounds heartless and I'm aware this could involve people I know and care about, but ultimately everyone will get this at some point. If we can not generate some sort of immunity then people will die like many other diseases. As social people, it is difficult to protect the vulnerable for ever, short of locking them away. Even then people are still getting it through relatives, carers etc. It will hit a lot of old people more and perhaps reduce overall life expectancy but there is only so far the general world wide population will go. Personally i don't think it will come to that and a vaccination will be the answer.

I think in 2 years time we will be looking back at this thinking '2020, what a shit year' but carrying on like we mostly did in 2019, remembering things that seemed crazy like field hospitals for testing and treatment in Ikea car parks.
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Maybe I'm pessimistic because I'm preparing for the worst but I love this post.
 
Doberman said:
Remove the masks, remove the testing and read this with an open mind using common sense.

Anyone out there who can tell me what our end game is with the covid 19? What is the magic formula that is going to allow us to sound the all clear?

Is it zero cases?
The only way that will happen is if we just stop testing and stop reporting.

Is it a vaccine?
It took 25 years for a chicken pox vaccine to be developed. The smallpox inoculation was discovered in 1796 the last known natural case was in 1977. We have a flu vaccine that is only 40 to 60% effective and less than half of the UK population choose to get one, and roughly 20,000 British will die of the flu or flu complications.

Mandate it?
We already have a growing number of anti vaxxers refusing proven, tested, well known vaccines that have been administered for decades but aren’t necessarily safe!

How long are we going to cancel and postpone and reconsider?? What if October's numbers are the same as August's? You moved football to summer? What if next March is worse than this one was? When do we decide quality of life outweighs the risks? I understand Covid can be deadly or very dangerous for SOME people, but so are peanuts, strawberries, and so is shellfish. We take risks multiple times a day without a second thought. We know the dangers of smoking, drinking and eating fried foods, we do it anyway.

Is hugging Gran really more dangerous than rush hour on the motorway?

When and how did we so quickly lose our free will? Is there a waiver somewhere I can sign that says, "I understand the risks, but I choose a life with football Concerts and Parties." I understand that there is a minuscule possibility I could die, but I will most likely end up feeling like crap for a few days. I understand I could possibly pass it to someone else, if I'm not careful, but I can pass any virus onto someone else. I'm struggling to see where or how this ends. We either get busy living or we get busy dying.

I guess I would rather spend my time enjoying it and living in the moment and not worrying about what ifs and maybes, and I bet I'm not the only one.


(interesting post stolen from elsewhere)
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Couldn't agree more, but my concern is not f***ing up our economy as opposed to missing out on football, concerts and parties.

Get the economy firing again and plough the money we are currently spunking up the wall on helping the vulnerable to shield and giving the NHS sufficient resources to give it the best chance of saving as many people who get really sick as possible.

It's not a popular opinion and I've had people calling me callous, despicable and saying I am wishing them/their loved ones dead on other threads, but there comes a point that we need to realise that hiding healthy people from this disease is not the correct response.
 
Frijj said:
We may never know the true number but we can make very good guesses based on antibody tests and modelling of cases.
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You'd think, but they don't. The modelling output has been very sketchy and inaccurate and has been behind most of the indecisiveness and misinformation.
 
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