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4th test Manchester

Wish I hadn't looked at that weather forecast, we had a clearish afternoon on Sunday and now it's showers all day.

We will need a good 90 minutes to clear the field from the heavy stuff on Saturday.

Don't want to be pessimistic but it's not looking good.
 

Brett said:
Wish I hadn't looked at that weather forecast, we had a clearish afternoon on Sunday and now it's showers all day.

We will need a good 90 minutes to clear the field from the heavy stuff on Saturday.

Don't want to be pessimistic but it's not looking good.
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Can't help the weather gods mate, England have approached this game perfectly.
 
there is even money knocking about gir the draw, England are 4/5 the win now that England win will drift if the rains arrives so at worse if you back the draw at evens Wait for the England to go odds against at worse you would get you money back . The Aussies are 100/1 and ain’t winning
 
Brett said:
I think we should have declared at lunch , we may have had to chase a small amount on Sunday which would have been easier then trying to get in overs to get 6 wickets
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We will find out come the result of the game bud, you could have a very good point 8-)

think England have enough time to win it though.
 
Ghfd said:
there is even money knocking about gir the draw, England are 4/5 the win now that England win will drift if the rains arrives so at worse if you back the draw at evens Wait for the England to go odds against at worse you would get you money back . The Aussies are 100/1 and ain’t winning
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This is really bad advice. Rain tomorrow is already priced into the odds. The odds on draw could go up or down depending on how the forecast changes compared to the current expectation, which is for loads of rain.

Great example of this was the 5th day of the first test. Draw was 8.5 at 10am. By 1.30pm there had been no play at all due to rain and yet the odds on a draw had lengthened to 10.5. Why? Because it had always been priced in that the first session would be a write-off, but the forecast for the afternoon had improved.
 
superhans1 said:
This is really bad advice. Rain tomorrow is already priced into the odds. The odds on draw could go up or down depending on how the forecast changes compared to the current expectation, which is for loads of rain.

Great example of this was the 5th day of the first test. Draw was 8.5 at 10am. By 1.30pm there had been no play at all due to rain and yet the odds on a draw had lengthened to 10.5. Why? Because it had always been priced in that the first session would be a write-off, but the forecast for the afternoon had improved.
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Sorry I did say at worst your money is returned if the England win goes odds against

good advice imo , you could double your money or get it all back

I never look for huge prices

if there is “loads of rain”. Doubling your money as advised is a good bit of advice as that won’t be around for very long
 
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Brett said:
Wish I hadn't looked at that weather forecast, we had a clearish afternoon on Sunday and now it's showers all day.

We will need a good 90 minutes to clear the field from the heavy stuff on Saturday.

Don't want to be pessimistic but it's not looking good.
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it’s not even showers now :( :(

Going to make a decision tomorrow on whether to bother travelling on Sunday. Already knocked the hotel on the head
 
Ghfd said:
Sorry I did say at worst your money is returned if the England win goes odds against

good advice imo , you could double your money or get it all back

I never look for huge prices
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You could also lose your money! If you bet on a draw and then the forecast improves, england go odds-on and you can't get your money back.
If you ever think there's a bet that will either double your money or at worse return your stake, your logic has gone wrong somewhere.
 
superhans1 said:
You could also lose your money! If you bet on a draw and then the forecast improves, england go odds-on and you can't get your money back.
If you ever think there's a bet that will either double your money or at worse return your stake, your logic has gone wrong somewhere.
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But the forecast ain’t changing , that’s the point as the evens will double your money and then the second England go odds against you can’t lose

11am tomorrow and it’s raining, England will go odds against by 1130am or earlier . Then you have a lock at money returned or a profit if England win

that’s my point here
 
Ghfd said:
But the forecast ain’t changing , that’s the point as the evens will double your money and then the second England go odds against you can’t lose

11am tomorrow and it’s raining, England will go odds against by 1130am or earlier . Then you have a lock at money returned or a profit if England win

that’s my point here
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Did you read my previous message?! I'll copy and paste: Great example of this was the 5th day of the first test. Draw was 8.5 at 10am. By 1.30pm there had been no play at all due to rain and yet the odds on a draw had lengthened to 10.5. Why? Because it had always been priced in that the first session would be a write-off, but the forecast for the afternoon had improved.

The same thing could happen tomorrow. It could be raining cats and dogs but England would still go odds-on if the forecast improves for Sunday. The current odds reflect the current forecast which is for god awful weather for two days, which means for England's odds to drift the weather forecast will have to turn even worse than that. Which might happen. But there's just as much chance of it going the other way.
 
superhans1 said:
Did you read my previous message?! I'll copy and paste: Great example of this was the 5th day of the first test. Draw was 8.5 at 10am. By 1.30pm there had been no play at all due to rain and yet the odds on a draw had lengthened to 10.5. Why? Because it had always been priced in that the first session would be a write-off, but the forecast for the afternoon had improved.

The same thing could happen tomorrow. It could be raining cats and dogs but England would still go odds-on if the forecast improves for Sunday. The current odds reflect the current forecast which is for god awful weather for two days, which means for England's odds to drift the weather forecast will have to turn even worse than that. Which might happen. But there's just as much chance of it going the other way.
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I did read it

yiu think it’s a bad bet , that perfectly fine . I’m on and personally happy to be so


let’s see what happens in the morning eh? If England odds go out and the draw goes long odds on

that’s enough before I get done for spoiling this thread
 
Steak Pie said:
M21 9QJ

That's Kensington Road in Chorlton. You can park round there, you'll see the parking restrictions closer you get to the ground, obviously don't go past them.

You're about 10 minutes walk from the ground, just don't block anyone's drive.
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Much appreciated 👍
 
Steak Pie said:
M21 9QJ

That's Kensington Road in Chorlton. You can park round there, you'll see the parking restrictions closer you get to the ground, obviously don't go past them.

You're about 10 minutes walk from the ground, just don't block anyone's drive.
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Cheers for this, will probably use this if I end up travelling
 
Ghfd said:
I did read it

yiu think it’s a bad bet , that perfectly fine . I’m on and personally happy to be so


let’s see what happens in the morning eh? If England odds go out and the draw goes long odds on

that’s enough before I get done for spoiling this thread
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And good luck to you! It's just that you were advising people to make a bet that you said didn't have a chance of losing. I just wanted to point out that your logic was totally flawed, as demonstrated by past examples. Neither you or I have any idea if the odds will go up or down in the morning, it's purely down to evolution of weather systems compared to forecasters' current best estimates. But fingers crossed it goes England's way!
 
superhans1 said:
And good luck to you! It's just that you were advising people to make a bet that you said didn't have a chance of losing. I just wanted to point out that your logic was totally flawed, as demonstrated by past examples. Neither you or I have any idea if the odds will go up or down in the morning, it's purely down to evolution of weather systems compared to forecasters' current best estimates. But fingers crossed it goes England's way!
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I didn’t say that at all, totally flawed :lol:

what I said the draw at evens doubles your money , I’m on . I think England win will go odds against

back the draw and at worst England win, you get your money back at least . Imo England will be odds against by 1130am tomorrow if the forecast rain is set in and the same stake as the double stake will give you a small profit

you accused me of not reading remember and you’ve misrepresented what I said

the only loser in the above scenario is Australia winning or the tie. Both highly unlikely

now that’s my whack.
 
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