11th June Stats

[DEfromBC]

Again the NE getting let down by the rest of the country

Not the best day but the important stuff still isn’t going above and beyond what it was expected to.

Sunderland 7 day rolling average:
53.7 cases per 100,000 using backdated data. +30.0
60.9 cases per 100,000 using daily data. +35.7

Cases per 100,000 doubled in the past 7 days. How is the rest of the country affecting those numbers??

 

[DaveH]

This is starting to show a slow but steady rise in hospital numbers now. It has been a big lag behind case numbers but when you look at numbers for the last 14 days it is all upwards. Just a small rise but possibly the start of an upward curve.

Stats seem to show that is is mainly the under 50s, and a lot of people in their 20s going to hospital with it now compared to other age groups.

 

[DEfromBC]

So here it is: we know of 33,206 cases of Delta variant (28,917 with vax info)

1,785 were fully vaccinated and *still* got infected (6.2% of cases)

Not sure what period that covers but 1,785 fully vaccinated people getting it is a significant number. Of those 1,785, 12 actually died

This is starting to show a slow but steady rise in hospital numbers now. It has been a big lag behind case numbers but when you look at numbers for the last 14 days it is all upwards. Just a small rise but possibly the start of an upward curve.

Stats seem to show that is is mainly the under 50s, and a lot of people in their 20s going to hospital with it now compared to other age groups.

Mechanical ventilation beds 146, up 23% on the value of 119 a week ago.

So saying those catching it are not getting seriously ill is bollocks

 

[DaveH]

So saying those catching it are not getting seriously ill is bollocks

Agreed. There are those saying "oh but it doesn't affect younger people". It appears it is starting to now. Though thankfully although the younger age groups are getting ill and going to hospital, currently does not seem to manifest as deaths:

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page 54.

That still shows the vast majority of deaths are in the 80+ group

 

[the veteran]

They should just report the hospitalisations and deaths now man..not every snotty nose, sore throat and false positive result...
Instead ya get the nappy wetting on news broadcasts saying it like their lives depended on it..

 

[Frankel]

I’m not sure what people expect?

The vaccines are having the impact required but they were never going to stop 100%. There will still be people who either choose not to take the vaccine or have only had one jab. There’s also a percentage of young people who haven’t been offered the jab yet.

Add in that were opening up everything of course case numbers were going to rise.

Thankfully the death numbers are still relatively low, although every death is tragic. People shouldn’t shit themselves.

 

[Bears Beets]

Sunderland 7 day rolling average:
53.7 cases per 100,000 using backdated data. +30.0
60.9 cases per 100,000 using daily data. +35.7

Cases per 100,000 doubled in the past 7 days. How is the rest of the country affecting those numbers??

I meant the stats today, it was a tongue in cheek comment

 

[WHO WAS PHONE]

I’m not sure what people expect?

The vaccines are having the impact required but they were never going to stop 100%. There will still be people who either choose not to take the vaccine or have only had one jab. There’s also a percentage of young people who haven’t been offered the jab yet.

Add in that were opening up everything of course case numbers were going to rise.

Thankfully the death numbers are still relatively low, although every death is tragic. People shouldn’t shit themselves.

That's my take on things currently.

 

[lawe toppa]

Sunderland 7 day rolling average:
53.7 cases per 100,000 using backdated data. +30.0
60.9 cases per 100,000 using daily data. +35.7

Cases per 100,000 doubled in the past 7 days. How is the rest of the country affecting those numbers??

Saying doubled can say be from 2 to 4 so can be a misleading headline.
The lockdowns were supposed to be about preventing the hospitals being overrun and preventing deaths.
They are not being overrun and deaths albeit sad are very low.
What is putting opening up back 2 to 4 weeks going to achieve?
We just need to crack on with life, we can't keep hiding away every time a new variant comes along.
You will defo start to see civil unrest soon if these restrictions carry on much longer.

 

[TDalt]

All on Boris. He could've restricted Indian travel weeks earlier.

We should have had no travel into the country apart from UK residents and even then, regardless where they travelled from, they should have been locked up in a hotel for 21 days.

The last time we had a 6.4k average (which we do now) of daily cases in a 7 day period was in March.

When we had that rate of infection we had an average of 254 deaths per day (in a 7 day period). Even two weeks later in March, when cases were declining, we still had a an average death rate of 63 people per day (in a 7 day period).

Today our death rate is 8 (in a 7 day period). 9x less.

But surely that death rate was from the high numbers of people who’d contracted the virus in the second wave, weeks prior to that relevant infection rate in March? Whereas six weeks prior to today the daily case rate was much much lower than Feb, so you’d expect low deaths anyway at the moment? The real test of this variant is in 4-6 weeks when this high case rate has had time for people to go through the cycle. Which is why we should delay “Freedom day” for 4-6 weeks

Agreed. There are those saying "oh but it doesn't affect younger people". It appears it is starting to now. Though thankfully although the younger age groups are getting ill and going to hospital, currently does not seem to manifest as deaths:

Loading…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

page 54.

That still shows the vast majority of deaths are in the 80+ group

That’s because the delta variant is has a higher severity factor though. But we don’t want to ruin someone’s wedding though.

 

[Gaggoears]

The last time we had a 6.4k average (which we do now) of daily cases in a 7 day period was in March.

When we had that rate of infection we had an average of 254 deaths per day (in a 7 day period). Even two weeks later in March, when cases were declining, we still had a an average death rate of 63 people per day (in a 7 day period).

Today our death rate is 8 (in a 7 day period). 9x less.

But you know the virus was decreasing then so pretty pointless info really.

I think you knew that already ( or at least I hope so )

 

[scott934]

So here it is: we know of 33,206 cases of Delta variant (28,917 with vax info)

1,785 were fully vaccinated and *still* got infected (6.2% of cases)

Not sure what period that covers but 1,785 fully vaccinated people getting it is a significant number. Of those 1,785, 12 actually died

But being fully vaccinated means the majority of the 1,785 must be in the more vulnerable category. 12 dying from that group is almost to be expected surely. The vaccine is good and it works but it's not a live forever potion.

 

[daveydavey]

But you know the virus was decreasing then so pretty pointless info really.

I think you knew that already ( or at least I hope so )

He’s accounted for that in his post? How have you missed it?

 

[bomber]

So just like the last few weeks it's still over

Keep taking the tablets.

 

[TopCat]

This is starting to show a slow but steady rise in hospital numbers now. It has been a big lag behind case numbers but when you look at numbers for the last 14 days it is all upwards. Just a small rise but possibly the start of an upward curve.

Stats seem to show that is is mainly the under 50s, and a lot of people in their 20s going to hospital with it now compared to other age groups.

Do we know what "going into hospital" entails in terms of the numbers? Is it likely they are counting anyone that rocks up with covid symptoms? I'd imagine there are a lot of people turned away/released etc as the "people in hospital" figure is largely flat

 

[Gaggoears]

He’s accounted for that in his post? How have you missed it?

No. I'm still trying to work out the relevance to where we are today.

 

[Deleted member 43869]

Almost past caring. Given up on the 21st. Satisfied with things staying as they are as there is nothing anyone can do about it. Only hope we don't return to pre May restrictions.

 

[humbug]

All on Boris. He could've restricted Indian travel weeks earlier.

i think that's why portugal was taken off the green list. he and the government were absolutely sackless in not acting with india more quickly and i think it was in their minds about this 'nepal' variant that was supposed to have been discovered in some cases in portugal.
fwiw (and probably not worth anything) i've come to the mindset that this virus is just going to have to (hopefully) burn itself out if that's even possible. i don't think there's much we can do to stop it. i am convinced though that the vaccines will save millions of lives round the world and for that i'm so grateful to those f***ing amazing folk who have developed it.

 

[spoony]

Almost past caring. Given up on the 21st. Satisfied with things staying as they are as there is nothing anyone can do about it. Only hope we don't return to pre May restrictions.

Going backwards isnt an option like. Horrific if it happens

 

[Brian Griffin]

But you know the virus was decreasing then so pretty pointless info really.

I think you knew that already ( or at least I hope so )

It's irrelevant whether or not the virus is decreasing - those people still caught it.

And that's why I showed the death rate two weeks later too.

I think you knew that already.