I think he will hang by his own people to be clear, what he is doing now is condemning his own people to the most harsh and brutal conditions...and it's simply a different world we live in to the 20th century where he could control the narrative around that, he will be brought to heel regardless of what he says.
Regarding intelligence, everything we have seen so far is that the irrespective of the political leadership on this mess, the intelligence agencies can see what is going on way before it happens. Our intelligence has been pristine. Russia would surely have anything it had to defend taken away from it if Putin was that way inclined.
What is more interesting to me is how deep rooted western intelligence is within the Kremlin, outstanding!!