My view on this is this… I think if Putin uses the russian speaking people of the two regions in the east as a reason for invading and ‘protecting people‘ who feel more russian, then this is a pretext and introduction to his wider aims. There is little strategic objective in eastern Ukraine. Apply this to the Baltic states and there is much more reason to apply the same thinking, with between 25 and 35 percent russian speaking people in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
I don’t understand his military objectives but see it more as a military gain to assert wider pressure on the international playing field where he can then influence economics by force. Belarus, Ukraine are a good starting point for him, but pushing into Europe is key for him in my opinion.
This is the first test for NATO, and unfortunately the European states are too weak and divided to stop him. He sees this and will roll in regardless. I don’t particularly like to use historical examples to demonstrate this, but Munich and appeasement are a lesson we have not learnt from. Today, as in the 1930’s, there is no appetite to stand up to Putin. But it will lead to greater demands. He has nothing to loose. He’s an old man wanting to build a legacy as a despot. This is the perfect time for him. He see’s Europe full of weak leaders, divided by their own economic agenda. We have an idiot as PM, France has a little Napoleon and Germany has an unstable government with an untested Chancellor. THe rest have no real power. The EU itself has no interest in standing against Russia. Only NATO has the means, but not the power.
There’s only the US then, and only Sleepy Joe can make a stand. Iraq and Afghanistan have removed the appetite for more conflict. He will roll on in and then look west I’m afraid.