Jason Roy

[Mainze]

Burns
Denly
Root
Stokes
Roy
Buttler
Bairstow
Woakes
Broad
Archer
Leach

Is how they could line up. Not sure they will change it though just yet.

 

[Comeback_Kenwyne]

I don't think you get my point either. I don't think you ever go just with gut and data is clearly a really important guideline. It has to be a combination of consistent performance but good judges / coaches knowing the strengths and weaknesses of players, do they get hard runs under pressure? For example from a bowling perspective nobody got more wickets at a better average that Martin Bicknell but it was felt, probably rightly that his 80mph bowling wouldn't cut it against test quality batsmen. Simon Jones averages way over 30 in first class cricket (not a patch on Bicknell) but they recognised that his pace and ability to reverse it would get could quality players out. He ended up with a test match average better than his first class.

The runs and average that a batsman makes clearly matters and as people who aren't in a position to see players regularly (you and I) its understandable that we would use that as our main benchmark on the quality of batsmen on the county circuit. There are too many variables for them to be more than a strong indicator though - does batsman A play half of his games on a featherbed? do they have any obvious flaws that dont get exposed much against 80mph seam bowling but are likely to against higher quality quicker bowling? How do they play spin on turning surfaces? Have they played enough games for their average to be a true sample? Pope mind looks a good example of someone who has a great average and just looks technically great but there will be reasons why the likes of Hildreth with excellent FC averages havent been given the opportunity.

Good debate tho

I think, at least on batting, the moneyball stuff is trying to suggest that people are more likely to get this approach wrong than otherwise. Of course the technical discussion is important - and I think bowling it is quite clearly even more of an art. You have to take pitches, fitness, attack balance and yes definitely speed into account there too. Speed is a decent rule of thumb and Duncan Fletcher wouldn't pick anyone under 80mph. And yet the most successful seam bowler of all time spent most of his career under 80mph, so - it's really difficult. I also think I'm write in saying that having a better test bowling average than first class one is much much more common than it is for batting.

When it comes to making my selection for opener though, I only really have stats. I haven't seen Sibley or Crawley but Crawley's numbers are not where you would want them to be. We don't want to be hoying in a guy too soon. For me, Gubbins is a player I've always thought looked technically very sound against seam (though potentially dodgy against spin). But that'd be a gut pick - Sibley's numbers are impressive and ultimately that's all I personally have to go on. As I say, the only other thing we know about him is that he went well against the Aussies for Warwickshire - got about 40 and 80 iirc.

Rory Burns is a good example of where the technical analysis might be wrong. He's been ignored for years because of his technique, despite having a better record than a whole host of openers who were tried before him. And yet he looks a better bet than more technically orthodox batsmen to me. Joe Denly goes the other way - the stats would say: why the fuck are you picking this lad. But his technique is pretty solid.

Ultimately, Sibley would be a punt - but everyone opening would be a punt. Would you pick Crawley? Have you seen him - I certainly haven't.

 

[mackembhoy]

Bayliss admits he's suited to playing in the middle order.

My question is why the fuck are you still coach, despite clearly knowing he's not an opener.

Literally says he was picked due to ODI opening performances and goes onto say. But then says they are very different.

Unbelievable admission to be honest.
He also thinks we have the 7 best batsman in the available in the side. Also a pile of crap.

 

[Voice of fair play]

Bayliss admits he's suited to playing in the middle order.

My question is why the fuck are you still coach, despite clearly knowing he's not an opener.

Literally says he was picked due to ODI opening performances and goes onto say. But then says they are very different.

Unbelievable admission to be honest.
He also thinks we have the 7 best batsman in the available in the side. Also a pile of crap.

Regarding your last line, fail to see how it’s a pile of crap, as there is not one other batsman knocking the door down who is a obvious pick and better than the current 7 not one!

 

[mackembhoy]

Regarding your last line, fail to see how it’s a pile of crap, as there is not one other batsman knocking the door down who is a obvious pick and better than the current 7 not one!

Ollie Pope averages 66 since the start of last season. Got two tests and put on the scrap heap. Despite numerous others getting far more time.

Roy is never an opener while you have Sibley, Crawley, Daniel Bell Drummond scoring tons of runs.

Denly was outshone by Sam Northeast at Kent and is in fine form for Hampshire, Sam Hain would have been a better shout too.

Jos Buttler isn't in the best 7 red ball batsman. He has 5 first class tons ffs, woakes is a better bat.

 

[rentaghost]

Ollie Pope averages 66 since the start of last season. Got two tests and put on the scrap heap. Despite numerous others getting far more time.

Roy is never an opener while you have Sibley, Crawley, Daniel Bell Drummond scoring tons of runs.

Denly was outshone by Sam Northeast at Kent and is in fine form for Hampshire, Sam Hain would have been a better shout too.

Jos Buttler isn't in the best 7 red ball batsman. He has 5 first class tons ffs, woakes is a better bat.

Ollie Pope has been unselectable all season due to having a shoulder injury. He was 19 or 20 when selected last year. he will be fantastic but he wasn't a realistic selection for this series as he hasn't been fit and available. Yesterday was his first knock in this format for 3 or 4 months. Your other suggestions just smacks of knowing nowt, looking at county averages and going 'he looks a good bet'. Do you not think the selectors look at all of these players, do you not think they judge their temperament and make judgements on how they can handle 90mph top class bowling rather than 80mph English seamers? Was Buttler not one of the best 7 batsman last summer when batting against top class Pakistani and Indian attacks including Bumrah, Shami on very bowler friendly conditions and averaging close to 50?

Its always the same. A player has a bad run and they're shit.

 

[mackembhoy]

Ollie Pope has been unselectable all season due to having a shoulder injury. He was 19 or 20 when selected last year. he will be fantastic but he wasn't a realistic selection for this series as he hasn't been fit and available. Yesterday was his first knock in this format for 3 or 4 months. Your other suggestions just smacks of knowing nowt, looking at county averages and going 'he looks a good bet'. Do you not think the selectors look at all of these players, do you not think they judge their temperament and make judgements on how they can handle 90mph top class bowling rather than 80mph English seamers? Was Buttler not one of the best 7 batsman last summer when batting against top class Pakistani and Indian attacks including Bumrah, Shami on very bowler friendly conditions and averaging close to 50?

Its always the same. A player has a bad run and they're shit.

Buttler batted at 7 in a counter punching role last summer. He's never a test match number 5.

Buttler proved a lot of people wrong last summer, but players can have purple patches. Seen enough in the rest of his England red ball career to know he's not the answer, certainly not as a number 5.

Good option at 7 if you have 6 excellent batsman above him

Roy is clearly not the answer to open the batting. Bayliss has admitted that, so you have to look at who is doing well in county cricket that opens.

Denly isn't the answer at 4 as he's an older James Vince, Joe Root is. So again you have to look at who could realistically come in at 3/4.

Roy, Buttler, Denly and Vince all been selected via time spent in white ball squads with Bayliss. Not based off red ball performance.

 

[Bri]

Ollie Pope averages 66 since the start of last season. Got two tests and put on the scrap heap. Despite numerous others getting far more time.

Roy is never an opener while you have Sibley, Crawley, Daniel Bell Drummond scoring tons of runs.

Denly was outshone by Sam Northeast at Kent and is in fine form for Hampshire, Sam Hain would have been a better shout too.

Jos Buttler isn't in the best 7 red ball batsman. He has 5 first class tons ffs, woakes is a better bat.

Out of that lot I'd have Sibley on my perhaps list and Crawley on my 'keep an eye on him' list but the rest, very good County players but I've seen no sign that they can step up.

Roy and Hales were/are good enough imho, but only in the lower middle order. Don't know what Hales is doing right now though and I rarely hear his name.

 

[mackembhoy]

Out of that lot I'd have Sibley on my perhaps list and Crawley on my 'keep an eye on him' list but the rest, very good County players but I've seen no sign that they can step up.

Roy and Hales were/are good enough imho, but only in the lower middle order. Don't know what Hales is doing right now though and I rarely hear his name.

He no longer plays red ball cricket. A trend that unfortunately will get more common.

I haven't seen any of the players I mentioned in first class cricket regularly. But as fans if someone isn't performing you have to look at who could replace them, such is the nature of cricket.

I do know you can't select players based on white ball performance for test cricket and expect miracles. Something Bayliss and the selectors haven't grasped.

Archer being the exception, but he was getting rave reviews for Sussex in championship and ran through the Pakistan team on his FC debut.

 

[rentaghost]

Out of that lot I'd have Sibley on my perhaps list and Crawley on my 'keep an eye on him' list but the rest, very good County players but I've seen no sign that they can step up.

Roy and Hales were/are good enough imho, but only in the lower middle order. Don't know what Hales is doing right now though and I rarely hear his name.

Maybe but not necessarily so. In test cricket you still have to be able to leave the ball and have good defensive technique whether you are batting 1 or 6. You are still facing quality bowling hitting the top of of stump time and time again with no one day get out shot of running it down to 3rd man. Roy has a batter chance batting down the order but i'm not convinced he would be successful their either. People have to see one day cricket and test match cricket as two different sports IMO.

 

[mackembhoy]

Maybe but not necessarily so. In test cricket you still have to be able to leave the ball and have good defensive technique whether you are batting 1 or 6. You are still facing quality bowling hitting the top of of stump time and time again with no one day get out shot of running it down to 3rd man. Roy has a batter chance batting down the order but i'm not convinced he would be successful their either. People have to see one day cricket and test match cricket as two different sports IMO.

Which the coach pretty much said when talking about Roy yesterday.

 

[rentaghost]

He no longer plays red ball cricket. A trend that unfortunately will get more common.

I haven't seen any of the players I mentioned in first class cricket regularly. But as fans if someone isn't performing you have to look at who could replace them, such is the nature of cricket.

I do know you can't select players based on white ball performance for test cricket and expect miracles. Something Bayliss and the selectors haven't grasped.

Archer being the exception, but he was getting rave reviews for Sussex in championship and ran through the Pakistan team on his FC debut.

But the selectors and coaches have, very regularly. They have seen many of them at really close quarters on A tours and all of them week in, week out yet they haven't selected them. Yet you look at cricinfo see who has the highest figures and assume they are better than the current players and the likes of Vince, Malan, Stoneman, Ballance etc. I'm excited about Pope he has tons of time and reminds me of a young Ian Bell. I think the selectors felt they had put him in too early last year (he had only played 8 first class games) but he will get back in and be hugely successful IMO.

 

[mackembhoy]

But the selectors and coaches have, very regularly. They have seen many of them at really close quarters on A tours and all of them week in, week out yet they haven't selected them. Yet you look at cricinfo see who has the highest figures and assume they are better than the current players and the likes of Vince, Malan, Stoneman, Ballance etc. I'm excited about Pope he has tons of time and reminds me of a young Ian Bell. I think the selectors felt they had put him in too early last year (he had only played 8 first class games) but he will get back in and be hugely successful IMO.

The selectors picked a bloke whose never opened in red ball cricket to open in an Ashes series. I'd also be surprised if Denly last the series(although I hope he turns them starts into a big score). So there judgement can be questioned.

But at the same time Ed Smith as a test failure and good county player. Is best placed to know if certain players can make the step up, based off his own career.

 

[rentaghost]

The selectors picked a bloke whose never opened in red ball cricket to open in an Ashes series. I'd also be surprised if Denly last the series(although I hope he turns them starts into a big score). So there judgement can be questioned.

But at the same time Ed Smith as a test failure and good county player. Is best placed to know if certain players can make the step up, based off his own career.

The selection of Roy IMO was ridiculous and they do make mistakes mainly because the lack of depth of talent in the county game. Mistakes in selection will be made because most county players will never make the step up because it is so vast and if they don't have the time and backfoot game to play against high class bowling then they wont get picked even if they have good averages in the county game. The selectors are however in a far better position to judge and have far more information at their disposal than you or i when making a choice. I mean you were just making a case with great authority for players you have never seen play based on averages some of which have been obtained playing against second division county bowling attacks.

 

[mackembhoy]

But the selectors and coaches have, very regularly. They have seen many of them at really close quarters on A tours and all of them week in, week out yet they haven't selected them. Yet you look at cricinfo see who has the highest figures and assume they are better than the current players and the likes of Vince, Malan, Stoneman, Ballance etc. I'm excited about Pope he has tons of time and reminds me of a young Ian Bell. I think the selectors felt they had put him in too early last year (he had only played 8 first class games) but he will get back in and be hugely successful IMO.

Pope now in squad as cover for Roy.

 

[smoker]

You're missing my point.

You can go with gut and get it right sometimes. But the moneyball approach - successful in baseball and now football - suggests best thing to look for is a career average of over 40. That's what the data says.

My point isn't: the data will always be right or the gut will always be wrong. My point is the data will be right more frequently than the gut.

And given I haven't really seen Sibley or Crawley bat, I can only really go with that. I think it's definitely too soon for the latter.

As for the 'late developer' scenario you sketch, the data does seem to suggest that real test players are more likely to look statistically more like Pope - they come in and even at an early age they start piling it up. The problem is that this is also what Graeme Hick or Gary Ballance look like. So, I'm not saying technique and gut don't matter - but you get my point now I hope.

To some extent I'm going on gut with Foakes - he has a decent average, but the data would suggest Pope is a surer bet long-term. I think Foakes has something though - grit.

I also think that batting in England we should accept that openers are going to have lower averages than middle order players, so it's not a hard rule on that even then. I'm just trying to be more educated given I haven't seen the two openers in question.

The only thing I know about them is that SIbley got good scores for Warwickshire versus the Aussies.

Tl;Dr

Roy isn't a FC opener, the players quoted are.

Roy has a worse FC average than Sibley, despite batting middle order.

 

[SAFC11]

Foakes, pope, hain and ballance are probably all ahead of roy as a middle order batsmen in red ball cricket. Hes got in the squad just because he opened in white ball, if hes not going to be the opener its massively unfair on all these lads who are working hard in the format. Im sick of bayliss and the ECB just selecting test players based on white ball stuff

 

[Voice of fair play]

Ollie Pope averages 66 since the start of last season. Got two tests and put on the scrap heap. Despite numerous others getting far more time.

Roy is never an opener while you have Sibley, Crawley, Daniel Bell Drummond scoring tons of runs.

Denly was outshone by Sam Northeast at Kent and is in fine form for Hampshire, Sam Hain would have been a better shout too.

Jos Buttler isn't in the best 7 red ball batsman. He has 5 first class tons ffs, woakes is a better bat.

None of them and I mean none of them, are quality players knocking the door down.

Foakes, pope, hain and ballance are probably all ahead of roy as a middle order batsmen in red ball cricket. Hes got in the squad just because he opened in white ball, if hes not going to be the opener its massively unfair on all these lads who are working hard in the format. Im sick of bayliss and the ECB just selecting test players based on white ball stuff

What was massively unfair was putting Roy in as a opener when doesn’t even do it for his county, hence setting him up to fail, making his debut and in the Ashes, totally unfair on the lad.

He should have started in the middle order clearly has something about him.

 

[SAFC11]

None of them and I mean none of them, are quality players knocking the door down.


What was massively unfair was putting Roy in as a opener when doesn’t even do it for his county, hence setting him up to fail, making his debut and in the Ashes, totally unfair on the lad.

He should have started in the middle order clearly has something about him.

It was unfair, but the gap was there so they took a punt. Be he does not have the temperment for test cricket. And thats not a slight. Theres many who dont

 

[Voice of fair play]

It was unfair, but the gap was there so they took a punt. Be he does not have the temperment for test cricket. And thats not a slight. Theres many who dont

Think he should have and is still worth a punt in the middle order, to me he has more about him than the players you mentioned.

Throwing him in the lions den in a position he is unfamiliar with, and then totally discarding him as a test player after just 2 games is just bad crack imo.