daily deaths

Hansel said:
For my back of a fag packet estimation I went with the 10% figure quoted for London rather than the 4% as that would give a more cautious result. Scary how your alternative way of calculation based on the size of the population and the % fatality rate give similar numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Your right that we don't know what the case fatality rate is going to be but I came across this briefing from the WHO where Dr Michael Ryan is saying that because the serology is now showing far fewer people have been infected than we thought then the percentage who get a serious illness is higher than we initially thought. Very worrying and I hope this doesn't mean a 1% fatality rate is optimistic.
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Hansel said:
Serology from Spain showing the same :cry:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1260663975978688519
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Just 5% in Spain and 11% in Madrid? :confused: This is similar to the 4% in UK and 10% in London from Patrick Vallance on Monday. However are the care home deaths 'inflating' the fatality rate temporarily in countries? They'd need to know the separate infection rates for non care homes and care homes. I think care homes will possibly have a higher infection % rate than national average. However, I'd still expect them to be a low percentage of UK infections overall even though they're quite a high percentage of deaths.

This is speculation of course but given how easy it can spread within the care homes then you'd expect a higher infection rate and death rate within the care homes. I wouldn't expect this to mirror the national statistics outside of care homes though. They should know how many of the antibody tests have included care home residents.

For example, in England using the ONS data, there's been 36,000 deaths at care homes in the last 8 weeks (4,500 a week) and at a rough estimate it would be 20,000 (2,500 a week). So there's been around 16,000 excess care home death in England. Some of those would die in hospital so just say a wild guess at 10,000 excess care home deaths which is a 5th of the excess UK deaths up to May 1st. I don't think the true infection numbers in English care homes is a 5th of overall infections.

If it's a small infection rate percentage for care homes then the fatality rate would be smaller for the UK if you took away the care home antibody tests and deaths. That's one positive in a shit situation I'm trying to work out and understand as I type. I hope people get what I mean as I've confused myself and can't be arsed to proof read! :confused:
 
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Spennymackem1981 said:
just to put it into perspective

so 432 or something today

450 patients die of cancer each day, 460 of heart failure to name just 2 diseases

this coranavirus scaremongering needs to end, this lockdown needs to end and schools should be open asap....this furlough madness needs to end. the love to see the state of the economy if this goes on a few more months good loo for people wanmting to buy houses borrow etc etc in the future.

25% deposits etc
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It’s the biggest scam in my the history of mankind, apart from religion of course.
 
Spennymackem1981 said:
i know one this some people are being massive fannies about the whole thing.. maybe im in the wrong who knows probably the numbers dont add up for me i think the Lockdown is doing more damage than covid 19 ever will

maybe i don't take it serious enough because apart from my sister who has had it and recovered within 2 weeks and had nothing other than what i would say was the flu didn't need hospital etc i don't actually know anyone else who has had the disease this includes family friends of friends everyone on Facebook etc.
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There are thousands upon thousands of people who know its a scam if that makes you feel any better. You are right about the lockdown doing more damage imho. The figures are wrong because, well its obvious, most people who die are getting covid put on the death certificates even though covid didn't kill them. It's a sad state of affaires but that's what happens when the majority of people on earth are thickos.
 
Spennymackem1981 said:
i know one this some people are being massive fannies about the whole thing.. maybe im in the wrong who knows probably the numbers dont add up for me i think the Lockdown is doing more damage than covid 19 ever will

maybe i don't take it serious enough because apart from my sister who has had it and recovered within 2 weeks and had nothing other than what i would say was the flu didn't need hospital etc i don't actually know anyone else who has had the disease this includes family friends of friends everyone on Facebook etc.
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You simply aren't understanding or not accounting for exponential growth. We would be on hundreds of thousands of deaths if we let this run rampant through society. In that situation I'm certain you'd know people who would come off badly from it.
 
James said:
You simply aren't understanding or not accounting for exponential growth. We would be on hundreds of thousands of deaths if we let this run rampant through society. In that situation I'm certain you'd know people who would come off badly from it.
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That is a theory.
 
Spennymackem1981 said:
i know one this some people are being massive fannies about the whole thing.. maybe im in the wrong who knows probably the numbers dont add up for me i think the Lockdown is doing more damage than covid 19 ever will

maybe i don't take it serious enough because apart from my sister who has had it and recovered within 2 weeks and had nothing other than what i would say was the flu didn't need hospital etc i don't actually know anyone else who has had the disease this includes family friends of friends everyone on Facebook etc.
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Even Covid19 wont go near Spennymore.
 
Spennymackem1981 said:
i know one this some people are being massive fannies about the whole thing.. maybe im in the wrong who knows probably the numbers dont add up for me i think the Lockdown is doing more damage than covid 19 ever will

maybe i don't take it serious enough because apart from my sister who has had it and recovered within 2 weeks and had nothing other than what i would say was the flu didn't need hospital etc i don't actually know anyone else who has had the disease this includes family friends of friends everyone on Facebook etc.
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Well I know three people who have died.
SPUFF said:
Dont entertain him mate.
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He can’t answer so he just looks a fool every time he tries to justify his theory and has to admit it is just opinion with no evidence to back it up.
 
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Old Timer said:
He can’t answer so he just looks a fool every time he tries to justify his theory and has to admit it is just opinion with no evidence to back it up.
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I've already gone through it with other posters on here and it results in nothing but bickering and people getting upset (warnings dished out etc).

This is a footy forum where people post their opinions, I'm posting my opinion, you post your opinion. I will be building a case study (it will take me about 8 hours to complete) and posting it on a conspiracy theory forum where it will be viewed by millions of people, this isn't the place for it. Just let me have my opinion and you are free to disagree with me. If everyone on here had to back up their opinions with evidence every time we'd never get nowt done.
 
Spennymackem1981 said:
just to put it into perspective

so 432 or something today

450 patients die of cancer each day, 460 of heart failure to name just 2 diseases

this coranavirus scaremongering needs to end, this lockdown needs to end and schools should be open asap....this furlough madness needs to end. the love to see the state of the economy if this goes on a few more months good loo for people wanmting to buy houses borrow etc etc in the future.

25% deposits etc
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So the number you quote is not even halve tbd peak of the virus , after 7 weeks of lock down

What would that number be if there was no lockdown ?
 
niceonemarra said:
I've already gone through it with other posters on here and it results in nothing but bickering and people getting upset (warnings dished out etc).

This is a footy forum where people post their opinions, I'm posting my opinion, you post your opinion. I will be building a case study (it will take me about 8 hours to complete) and posting it on a conspiracy theory forum where it will be viewed by millions of people, this isn't the place for it. Just let me have my opinion and you are free to disagree with me. If everyone on here had to back up their opinions with evidence every time we'd never get nowt done.
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But as I have said to you on another thread your opinion if listened to could kill 500,000 people so every time you give your opinion I will challenge you. If your theory is only going to be published on a conspiracy theory site , that about sums it up.

Also this is not the football board that is pure football, so don’t try to use that as a way to defend you not defending your arguments.

At times like this opinions like yours are a danger to others and must be called out.
 
Old Timer said:
But as I have said to you on another thread your opinion if listened to could kill 500,000 people so every time you give your opinion I will challenge you. If your theory is only going to be published on a conspiracy theory site , that about sums it up.

Also this is not the football board that is pure football, so don’t try to use that as a way to defend you not defending your arguments.

At times like this opinions like yours are a danger to others and must be called out.
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The key word in your statement is could, you are talking about a theory here. In my opinion The Lockdown is killing thousands of people and this will be in my case study when I release it. Are you aware that thousands of people are starving to death due to the lockdown? Probably not as the main stream media don't seem to give a shit about it. If you have been getting your information from the government and MSM it's no wonder you don't know what's really going on.
 
niceonemarra said:
The key word in your statement is could, you are talking about a theory here. In my opinion The Lockdown is killing thousands of people and this will be in my case study when I release it. Are you aware that thousands of people are starving to death due to the lockdown? Probably not as the main stream media don't seem to give a shit about it. If you have been getting your information from the government and MSM it's no wonder you don't know what's really going on.
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Nutcase or huge attention seeker. Cant decide.
 
niceonemarra said:
The key word in your statement is could, you are talking about a theory here. In my opinion The Lockdown is killing thousands of people and this will be in my case study when I release it. Are you aware that thousands of people are starving to death due to the lockdown? Probably not as the main stream media don't seem to give a shit about it. If you have been getting your information from the government and MSM it's no wonder you don't know what's really going on.
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Thousands starving to death, does anyone on here know of anyone , or anyone who's heard of anyone, starving to death because of this? Or any news reports of thousands starving to death?
 
SPUFF said:
Nutcase or huge attention seeker. Cant decide.
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See @Old Timer ^ this is why I resisted to speak to you in detail about it on the other thread. You seem like a level headed poster so apologies I cant discuss it with you but I've had a mountain of abuse from people like SPUFF who just resort to childish name calling.
 
niceonemarra said:
See @Old Timer ^ this is why I resisted to speak to you in detail about it on the other thread. You seem like a level headed poster so apologies I cant discuss it with you but I've had a mountain of abuse from people like SPUFF who just resort to childish name calling.
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Wind your neck in with some of the attention seeking comments as you are on very thin ice

Take my comments on board this is not a discussion I am having with you
 
R***** agrees with TVOR on these grounds: likely to offend

OK I trust Rogers word so will resist to post my thoughts about the corona virus.

I here by promise to never post on the coronavirus sub forum again or make any reference to it anywhere else.

Sorry if I have offended anyone.

nobody is perfect and for that reason I'm always looking to improve on everything I do
 

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