daily deaths



yamar1 said:
Iv no doubt it is possible. Again, just asking the question, post 56 if you want to read what he said.
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Yes that doesn't add up. I was referring to people who are unwell. Only comment I would make is that we wouldn't allow anyone in for a surgical procedure without doing a test to confirm they weren't asymptomatic and infected before they were allowed on the ward so the 'no tests done' doesn't make sense either.
 
DoctorMick said:
Yes, I know that but my point is if you look at this year against 2018 it isn’t as severe a jump (about 20k I think). Not that it matters really as everyone is talking about excess deaths.
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Fair enough, that is why I think the excess deaths is the number to be looking at. There is a lag and yes you can always have anomalies as per your point but it seems as good a method, if not better, than others.
 
cluffy said:
Weird how all the right wing posters doubt the death figures
something's always "not right"
other countries "figures aren't clear"
A lot of deaths "maybe aren't covid deaths"

embarrassing
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Lot less vocal overall though. They will soon be telling us how Johnson fucked up the COVID-19 pandemic response and he needs to go before it is time for an election.
 
Voice of fair play said:
Just most know diffrent people from me.

My take on it is politics full stop should be put aside altogether to be united in stopping the virus.
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I have always felt the people in charge of dealing with this virus should be experts not these idiot politicians who have shown themselves to be totally incompetent.
 
Gaggoears said:
I have always felt the people in charge of dealing with this virus should be experts not these idiot politicians who have shown themselves to be totally incompetent.
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Well seen as this virus has only existed a few months good look finding these experts.

Aren’t the politicians taking advice from the so called experts, you can’t really expect politicians to suddenly become experts at something they have never come across before.

Then again tbf up to now they seem to be making a bad job off it granted,
 
Voice of fair play said:
Well seen as this virus has only existed a few months good look finding these experts.

Aren’t the politicians taking advice from the so called experts, you can’t really expect politicians to suddenly become experts at something they have never come across before.

Then again tbf up to now they seem to be making a bad job off it granted,
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So they say. Let's go herd ! Nope change the plan.
Face mask do nothing ! Wear face masks.
I don't know what is going on if I am honest.
 
DoctorMick said:
Yes, I know that but my point is if you look at this year against 2018 it isn’t as severe a jump (about 20k I think). Not that it matters really as everyone is talking about excess deaths.
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The 2017-18 year is higher due to the severe flu outbreak we had. You can see in the 1st image below as it's the green line. I don't think we've had a flu outbreak this year though looking at the 2019-20 red line as it dropped from Jan 10th until Feb 7th when it levelled off. So it is a severe increase and if anything it was below the 5 year average up until Feb 28th. That means the excess deaths is possibly more given it was below the average (4 year on this as I couldn't be arsed to do 5 year). For the 8 week period from 24th Jan to March 13th there were 4,446 less deaths in total than average so averaging 550 less deaths per week yet 2019-20 crossed the average on March 20th. If we didn't have COVID-19 would we have around 500 less deaths per week from then?

This is just the ONS numbers and I had to 'fiddle' the end of year data for Dec 27th as it's less than normal so just ignore that blip in all years. The axis on the bottom is just this year's dates but it is lined up with the previous years week numbers. They aren't precise but it's just to give a general idea of the trends. (click to zoom)

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This is up to March 27th when ONS figures started to rise for 2019-20 just to show how the years vary in closer detail over start of Dec to end of March. You can see the gap from Jan 24th to March 13th between the average black line and red line.

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This is just 2017-2018 compared to 2019-20. It seems to be a 1,000 less deaths for most of it. I don't know why 28th Feb is low for 2017-18 but it then went up on 6th March.



Looking at this, I think the impact of COVID-19 deaths started sometime in mid February for this year given the red line levels off while most years it drops off a little around that time. The first death was announced on March 5th in the UK but according to the NHS files I saw that it was Feb 28th in the Midlands. I think the 1st case was January 31st or thereabouts and it's bound to have been here a short while before, though not months in my opinion like some think.

I also posted here showing the different years for deaths but I can't remember what it was all about :lol:

https://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/deaths-by-age-group.1516233/post-31636368

@wisemensaysteve & @spitfire here you go, some graphs to look at ;)
 
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Hansel said:
For my back of a fag packet estimation I went with the 10% figure quoted for London rather than the 4% as that would give a more cautious result. Scary how your alternative way of calculation based on the size of the population and the % fatality rate give similar numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Your right that we don't know what the case fatality rate is going to be but I came across this briefing from the WHO where Dr Michael Ryan is saying that because the serology is now showing far fewer people have been infected than we thought then the percentage who get a serious illness is higher than we initially thought. Very worrying and I hope this doesn't mean a 1% fatality rate is optimistic.
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Serology from Spain showing the same :cry:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1260663975978688519
 

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