15th July Stats

DaveH said:
7 day average of deaths have doubled in the last 2 weeks, up to 33. If that trend continues then it will be
29th July 66
12th August 132
26th August 264

I'm not saying it will do that, but one thing that you get with exponential growth (cases and hospitalisations have been consistently growing at the same rate for a while) is that things increase slowly at first and then rapidly.

The last two weeks may have been a surge, but say the rate of increase slows down a bit, then it is still not unfeasible to be over 250 by the end of September.
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☝️This
 


Gaggoears said:
That's a

cool. So comical Ali above was wrong.

Yes they matter a lot to me, I don't want to see another 30k die needlessly to save the NHS in winter when it clearly won't save the NHS in winter.

Glad we agree.
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But just to be clear you are willing to throw a certain amount of lives under the bus so you can enjoy your holidays?
 
Scotland are a great guinea pig here - schools broke up here 3 weeks ago and were knocked out of euros 3 weeks ago. Cases peaked here around 10 days ago and 7-day avg of cases has been falling ever since, as has test positivity. Growth in hospital and ICU has slowed but not yet peaked, but deaths are still rising and growth rate still high. All the modelling in the world surely can't replicate such a good test case? The big difference is that we're being more cautious in opening up with our equivalent of 19th July coming on 9th August, all being well, with an interim step on Monday.
 
Teejay said:
Scotland are a great guinea pig here - schools broke up here 3 weeks ago and were knocked out of euros 3 weeks ago. Cases peaked here around 10 days ago and 7-day avg of cases has been falling ever since, as has test positivity. Growth in hospital and ICU has slowed but not yet peaked, but deaths are still rising and growth rate still high. All the modelling in the world surely can't replicate such a good test case? The big difference is that we're being more cautious in opening up with our equivalent of 19th July coming on 9th August, all being well, with an interim step on Monday.
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9th August makes more sense.
 
bomber said:
You'll find i was very active on here when being told its over,its nowhere to go,cases wont ever go above 1k etc etc.I'll do some bumping up if you want.
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Sometimes people are wrong because they have hope...their hopes hurt nobody, so best not to pretend they do.
 
bomber said:
It's certainly working @Epping @bahtat @offmenut have disappeared @42 and @Jap Stammer are very quiet.Onwards and upwards.😆
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Far from.it.. I'm still here... If you think most of Europe are through the other side then you are very mistaken... Portugal have been recording similar death to UK pro rata and that is without the delta variant hitting as massively yet.. Spain is also now rampant too . None can count chickens
 
Epping said:
If you think most of Europe are through the other side then you are very mistaken...
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I stated months ago I would encounter another lockdown before the years end.👍
Epping said:
If you think most of Europe are through the other side then you are very mistaken...
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I never said they wadnt...I knar they will.👍
Epping said:
Portugal have been recording similar death to UK pro rata and that is without the delta variant hitting as massively yet..
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It's hit hard enough,luckily there isn't a freedom day planned to send it into orbit.
Epping said:
Portugal have been recording similar death to UK pro rata
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I did warn the board to come have their jollies and get back ASAP.Sometimes folks just won't listen.🤔
 
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bomber said:
It's certainly working @Epping @bahtat @offmenut have disappeared @42 and @Jap Stammer are very quiet.Onwards and upwards.😆
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Excuse me?

You are obviously very selective in what you read (I know you're very selective in what you choose to quote or respond to) - I've posted on here every day for months.

Unlike you, I try to measure my responses and I try never to insult or denigrate anyone (doesn't always happen, I admit), but you, my Iberian wannabe nemesis, take the biscuit when it comes to that sort of thing.

Whatever floats your boat, I suppose.
 
Teejay said:
Scotland are a great guinea pig here - schools broke up here 3 weeks ago and were knocked out of euros 3 weeks ago. Cases peaked here around 10 days ago and 7-day avg of cases has been falling ever since, as has test positivity. Growth in hospital and ICU has slowed but not yet peaked, but deaths are still rising and growth rate still high. All the modelling in the world surely can't replicate such a good test case? The big difference is that we're being more cautious in opening up with our equivalent of 19th July coming on 9th August, all being well, with an interim step on Monday.
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What's the craic with the next easing of restrictions up there, pubs etc? Before 9th August? Up there weekend before.
 

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