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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

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MonkeyLove said:
Good to see the Ukrainians still have heavy weapon capabilities of their own. Artillery and shelling here a Russian forward base outside Kiyv

They had tons of artillery at the start of the war. They haven’t really used much partly due to the tactical way they are fighting.

But good to know it’s not been destroyed as could be invaluable for counterattacks or attacking Russian formations when they inevitably have to base

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Looking at that compound on google earth which looks to be in the village of Kozarovychi, it's roughly half way between Kyiv and the Belarussian border. If that's considered a forward base, the Russians really haven't made much progress at all. I know the paratroopers tried and failed to take the Hostomel airport. Hopefully this is a sign that the Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance, at least on this front anyway.
 
MonkeyLove said:
When you read that Fiona Hill article it highlights that NATO have boxed themselves into a corner a bit here. The idea of any direct challenge to Russia has been categorically ruled out and met with horror.

You only have to see the amount of leaders, politicians, experts etc… falling over themselves to say there will never be a no fly zone as it would risk a direct confrontation with Russia.

When you read that article it explains his personality and why that would potentially embolden him. He is fascinated with historical maps and his deep held belief is borders can and do change. He now wants them to change in his favour.

The West has telegraphed how horrified they are at the prospect of confrontation in Ukraine but really it’s just how horrified we are at the prospect at all. Particularly with Putins nuke statements.

All of the arguments used for not intervening now, even with a no fly zone, still apply if he goes into a Baltic NATO state. Because the terrible potential consequences are the same (A potential escalation to nuclear conflict).

So her basic argument is the differentiation of NATO might not mean much to Putin at this stage. It’s just different territory and terms on the current map. If he believes that NATO won’t challenge him at any point because we are too afraid of the consequences, which we pretty much have already telegraphed is the case, and his belief that borders can be changed anyway, then frankly a country being in NATO is possibly of little relevance in his mind.

As ever with dictators appeasement only works if you are willing to let them have the whole thing. No one challenged Hitler because of his conventional strength. Putin is relying on the modern nuclear version of the same.
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What he wants to do and what he can afford to do are 2 different things. Empires are fundamentally based on economic strength, which Russia doesn't have

The interesting thing for me about Fiona Hill is she talks about this being the latest step in a war that Russia has been waging on a number of fronts for years - information, political inteference, disruption, espionage.

Makes Russian interference in Brexit the hostile act of an enemy power. Which is pretty much what Carole Cadwalldr has been saying for a long time
 
Lankester Merrin said:
What he wants to do and what he can afford to do are 2 different things. Empires are fundamentally based on economic strength, which Russia doesn't have

The interesting thing for me about Fiona Hill is she talks about this being the latest step in a war that Russia has been waging on a number of fronts for years - information, political inteference, disruption, espionage.

Makes Russian interference in Brexit the hostile act of an enemy power. Which is pretty much what Carole Cadwalldr has been saying for a long time
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I don't understand how that and the attempted interference in the US election could be interpreted any other way. It's not like Putin was just doing that stuff for sheer jollies.
 
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