Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

[Az*]

My marra went to work in Tallin yesterday and all his sites had half the staff. 15/20k Ukrainians according to him have left for home to fight.

I’m sure he’s exaggerating a little bit even so a lot have gone.

 

[den]

I’m still not sure what the Russians are planning as a next step.

It’s inevitable at some point in the next few days they will roll tanks into central squares in the Eastern cities - Kiyv, Kharvik, Mariupol. Putin will claim he has liberated Ukraine. Then what?

It’s been so quick there has been very little degradation of the Ukrainian forces. Even higher estimates maybe 1% of the combined armed, security and civil defence.

Ukraine can’t replace quickly the heavy equipment but the tactical stuff that’s been invaluable to them is on an indefinite supply line from the West for as long as they can keep their borders open with NATO.

Zelensky will flee. Not because he wants to but because he will agree with the West it’s better to be in exile then dead or captured and undermine the legitimacy of any puppet state.

Then Russia will have to continue to fight a war on two fronts. Likely with retreated armed forces in the West and likely an insurgency in the East. Plus massive civil disobedience and potentially violence.

Plus Russia is in day two of many years of the toughest sanctions ever handed out and can’t even open their stock market.

Putin will claim victory when he gets into and ‘takes’ Kyiv. But this is barely getting started.

Exactly, for an occupying army to control the whole of Ukraine will need hundreds of thousands of troops if not more.

 

[errant]

Looks like they are also using illegal weapons against Ukraine.

I don’t think illegal weapons is a term putin recognised

 

[r@mside]

Are they waiting for the jets we’ve promised them? And if so, if that why Putin said yesterday if they use European weapons then he will see it as a sign of aggression? Is he baiting us?

It's more difficult to use NATO military personnel under the guise of technical advisors when it comes to high tech equipment like that. The assumption will be Ukrainian pilots can't fly the jets, so NATO personnel will be directly involved in attacking Russian troops. It'd be another notch up in escalation if it happens.

 

[monkeytassle]

I guess you’ve answered your question in the first paragraph though? If this convoy contains supplies and a new government, why wouldn’t they try and bomb the fuck out of it? Or as someone has said, the first couple of them to stop them, or slow them down?

I guess laypeople like me look at the “17 mile convoy” and think fuck that’s scary, that’s a lot of weapons. And the fact that it’s just allowed to waltz through to the capital with no resistance looks strange, hence why I asked the question.

I actually know this.

1 battle tank (4 crew) requires half a standard fuel lorry (so one as you can't cut them in half), a lorry for shells and other ammunition, 2 supply lorries for stuff like tracks and other maintenance gear and a water lorry. So for one tank you're looking at 4 support vehicles.

 

[Deleted member 48353]

Slightly political but any sneaky laws or legislations been passed in the last few days?

Wrong thread, you’ll have to ask on the politics board for that shite

 

[Sweeper]

Exactly, for an occupying army to control the whole of Ukraine will need hundreds of thousands of troops if not more.

Aye there was a foreign policy expert on LBC over the weekend saying just that. If this was Estonia you could kind of see Putin’s end game - occupy long term. He could do that in a small country like Estonia with a relatively modest armed presence.

However Ukraine is an enormous country with over 40 million people in it. The majority of whom clearly hate Russia and will resist until Russia is gone. As you say, Russia would need to “chase out” the elected government all across the country to the west, effectively conquering the entire Ukraine. That would be a long and costly process for Russia - look at the logistical problems they are encountering now, supplying their soldiers near Kyiv. Imagine how much tougher it would be for them to press soldiers as far west as Lviv?

Then even if they did take the whole country, they would need to leave tens (hundreds?) of thousands of Russian troops behind long term, just to hold on to it and prop up a puppet government.

The whole thing makes no sense. Putin really does seem to have backed himself in to a corner.

 

[Suomifinland]

I don’t think illegal weapons is a term putin recognised

Yep true. This is the daft thing. To be illegal, the user had to have signed a treaty to declare them as illegal. UK etc did, Russia etc didn't.

So if UK used em = illegal
Russia = nasty but not illegal

International law is shite man. Like having to sign up to recognise a speed limit.

 

[Lord Potts]

After the shit show of a withdrawal in Afghan. I don’t think so.

Although you are right about the shit show in my view that was more of political origin than a military one. A new US administration trying to show that it meant what it said but I don't think that it will ignore the military advice that it getting now.

 

[redandwhiterob]

You said you don’t agree with it, either you do or you don’t, if you don’t then surely you’re of the opinion that you’d do it differently ?

Are you seriously comparing the two?

 

[sonson]

Cos its a f***ing war zone man. Its pretty obvious they mustn't have the capabilities or think its not a good idea

It's not pretty obvious at all

War isn't a case of "if not this, then this". You've heard of the Fog of War?

And even if you think you can do something, it's not like noting that a football team is weak on the counter or something. You have to orchestrate and execute masses of intricate details simultaneously, and if you fail to, the consequences are always dead people, and worst case in this scenario possibly the end of your nation's existence as you know it.

Russia *thought* they had the capabilities to conquer Ukraine swiftly as did most of us. We were wrong.

If you can say one thing about the war so far is that basically nothing at all has been obvious without hindsight and the things we thought were have turned out not to be at all.

 

[Suomifinland]

Aye there was a foreign policy expert on LBC over the weekend saying just that. If this was Estonia you could kind of see Putin’s end game - occupy long term. He could do that in a small country like Estonia with a relatively modest armed presence.

However Ukraine is an enormous country with over 40 million people in it. The majority of whom clearly hate Russia and will resist until Russia is gone. As you say, Russia would need to “chase out” the elected government all across the country to the west, effectively conquering the entire Ukraine. That would be a long and costly process for Russia - look at the logistical problems they are encountering now, supplying their soldiers near Kyiv. Imagine how much tougher it would be for them to press soldiers as Far East as Lviv?

Then even if they did take the whole country, they would need to leave tens (hundreds?) of thousands of Russian troops behind long term, just to hold on to it and prop up a puppet government.

The whole thing makes no sense. Putin really does seem to have backed himself in to a corner.

I think the next plan might be to use Belarus to shut off the West Ukraine to EU. Ukraine forces are so stretched that I'm not sure they could pivot & engage a whole new army attacking them on a different front.

 

[Keawyeds]

I see that Warner Brothers are holding back on releasing The Batman in Russia.

Frankly, I'd have thought now was the exact time to release vigilante justice on a corrupt overlord, but there we go.

 

[gazc24]

Reports that 75% of Russian military is now in Ukraine. Appears they are going for the hammer approach

 

[Deleted member 48353]

Surely you don’t need to be within sight to destroy that convoy

I’m presuming it’s not going to use one route all the way to the capital, watch it split and then destroy the roads way infront.

 

[chrismisterx]

I’m still not sure what the Russians are planning as a next step.

It’s inevitable at some point in the next few days they will roll tanks into central squares in the Eastern cities - Kiyv, Kharvik, Mariupol. Putin will claim he has liberated Ukraine. Then what?

It’s been so quick there has been very little degradation of the Ukrainian forces. Even higher estimates maybe 1% of the combined armed, security and civil defence.

Ukraine can’t replace quickly the heavy equipment but the tactical stuff that’s been invaluable to them is on an indefinite supply line from the West for as long as they can keep their borders open with NATO.

Zelensky will flee. Not because he wants to but because he will agree with the West it’s better to rule from exile then dead or captured and undermine the legitimacy of any puppet state.

Then Russia will have to continue to fight a war on two fronts. Likely with retreated armed forces in the West and likely an insurgency in the East. Plus massive civil disobedience and potentially violence.

Plus Russia is in day two of many years of the toughest sanctions ever handed out and can’t even open their stock market.

Putin will claim victory when he gets into and ‘takes’ Kyiv. But this is barely getting started.

Some very good points, reminds me of Vietnam.

The US was winning the war funny enough at a large cost ( according to generals on the ground ) the Tet Offensive was a last throw of the dice and played into the US's hands as it was a massive loss of equipment and fighters, but it was the first war on the telly 24/7 and seeing that offensive convinced the people at home the north was stronger than it was and that there wasn't any end in sight, was interesting reading, damned if I can remember the Generals name or where I read it. But that action broke the political will and actions and thoughts at home did it for the US.

The same is going to happen here, the PR value is off the scale, Putin cant win the PR war, thats already lost he still can get a military victory of sorts, but the cost is going to be massive, but we live in the information age and losing the narrative so quickly and then the PR war, you right what is the end goal now, cant claim it was for the peoples own good, cant claim it was to rid the country of Nazism, he has misjudged the world completely, the same as Vietnam, it quickly turned into the US was the bad guys and all was lost from that moment onwards.

Now look at Iraq, the west spent an age setting the ground work of why it was important to invade, convinced countries before going in and won the PR war, so had support for action, only years later did that start to unravel, but by then it was done and dusted and hindsight.

Putin is now damned if he does , damned if he doesn't, he cant save face and will struggle to sell this as anything other than an embarrassment of his forces abilities, the only thing that comes to mind is he is surrounded by yes men who were too scared to tell him the truth, pretty much the same thing that happened to Hitler, maybe Putin thought one thing and the generals knew another?

 

[Sweeper]

Some very good points, reminds me of Vietnam.

The US was winning the war funny enough at a large cost ( according to generals on the ground ) the Tet Offensive was a last throw of the dice and played into the US's hands as it was a massive loss of equipment and fighters, but it was the first war on the telly 24/7 and seeing that offensive convinced the people at home the north was stronger than it was and that there wasn't any end in sight, was interesting reading, damned if I can remember the Generals name or where I read it. But that action broke the political will and actions and thoughts at home did it for the US.

The same is going to happen here, the PR value is off the scale, Putin cant win the PR war, thats already lost he still can get a military victory of sorts, but the cost is going to be massive, but we live in the information age and losing the narrative so quickly and then the PR war, you right what is the end goal now, cant claim it was for the peoples own good, cant claim it was to rid the country of Nazism, he has misjudged the world completely, the same as Vietnam, it quickly turned into the US was the bad guys and all was lost from that moment onwards.

Now look at Iraq, the west spent an age setting the ground work of way it was important to invade, convinced countries before going in and won the PR war, so had support for action, only years later did that start to unravel, but by then it was done and dusted and hindsight.

Putin is now damned if he does , damned if he doesn't, he cant save face and will struggle to sell this as anything other than an embarrassment of his forces abilities, the only thing that comes to mind is he is surrounded by yes men who were told scared to tell him the truth, pretty much the same thing that happened to Hitler, maybe Putin thought one thing and the generals knew another?

As I saw someone say on Twitter last week - it would be nice if we could just skip straight to the part where Putin kills himself in a bunker.

 

[Harry Angstrom]

Was just pondering it actually. If they're a column heading into a bottleneck, all the Ukrainians need to do is set up a single ambush at the pinch point. Take out the first few vehicles and you've essentially blocked the entry for the entire column. I think this is the plan.

Some military expert on 5 live was saying just that. He reckons that faced with a whole city motivated and armed is extremely difficult.

 

[Suomifinland]

Aye there was a foreign policy expert on LBC over the weekend saying just that. If this was Estonia you could kind of see Putin’s end game - occupy long term. He could do that in a small country like Estonia with a relatively modest armed presence.

However Ukraine is an enormous country with over 40 million people in it. The majority of whom clearly hate Russia and will resist until Russia is gone. As you say, Russia would need to “chase out” the elected government all across the country to the west, effectively conquering the entire Ukraine. That would be a long and costly process for Russia - look at the logistical problems they are encountering now, supplying their soldiers near Kyiv. Imagine how much tougher it would be for them to press soldiers as far west as Lviv?

Then even if they did take the whole country, they would need to leave tens (hundreds?) of thousands of Russian troops behind long term, just to hold on to it and prop up a puppet government.

The whole thing makes no sense. Putin really does seem to have backed himself in to a corner.

There was a military expert on TV saying that there's some sort of ratio of invaders to population that is generally agreed on as being needed to successfully occupy.

He showed numbers from relatively successful campaigns & they were all well above that. Russia was something like 1:10th of it. Just no way it can happen unless Putin has something up his sleeve like nuclear blackmail.

 

[beverly macca]

Although you are right about the shit show in my view that was more of political origin than a military one. A new US administration trying to show that it meant what it said but I don't think that it will ignore the military advice that it getting now.

You’d like to think so.