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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

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It’s possible it just sleepwalks into a war. Lots of heavy shelling and fighting in Donetsk tonight. If it keeps ramping up then it won’t be long before all our fighting without any obvious Big Bang to suggest it’s started
 
MonkeyLove said:
It’s possible it just sleepwalks into a war. Lots of heavy shelling and fighting in Donetsk tonight. If it keeps ramping up then it won’t be long before all our fighting without any obvious Big Bang to suggest it’s started
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The civil war erupted on a military level in 2014 and is only on hold subject to the Minsk II agreement. Despite the pressures and dependence on military support from the larger powers, there are still local militias with their won agendas who may see this confrontation as an opportunity to further their own ends. It's nothing new.
 
r@mside said:
The civil war erupted on a military level in 2014 and is only on hold subject to the Minsk II agreement. Despite the pressures and dependence on military support from the larger powers, there are still local militias with their won agendas who may see this confrontation as an opportunity to further their own ends. It's nothing new.
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This is very true. Place has been a mess for a while.
 
r@mside said:
The civil war erupted on a military level in 2014 and is only on hold subject to the Minsk II agreement. Despite the pressures and dependence on military support from the larger powers, there are still local militias with their won agendas who may see this confrontation as an opportunity to further their own ends. It's nothing new.
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I don’t think it’s local militias. It appears to be Russian separatists (You call it a civil war others would call them terrorists) firing on the official Ukrainian armed forces.

The latter of who are being restrained and not retaliating
 
r@mside said:
They're not proving very illuminating, we've had at least two invasion dates come and go.

That wasn't what I referring to though. I should have been clearer, it was the claims of who is doing what across the dividing lines in Donbass which has been the latest area of alarm.
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Huge volume of data to analyse. The spreadsheet is overflowing.
 
r@mside said:
The civil war erupted on a military level in 2014 and is only on hold subject to the Minsk II agreement. Despite the pressures and dependence on military support from the larger powers, there are still local militias with their own agendas who may see this confrontation as an opportunity to further their own ends. It's nothing new.
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Disagree because I cannot see how they exist without the support or control of the Kremlin.

Given violations of the ceasefire now exceed over 2000 its untenable to think this isn't being orchestrated in tandem.
 
Getting closer and now moving large numbers at night.

A few days ago they were 20-30 km from the border. Then staged around 15km. Now they are moving in darkness to just a few miles from the Ukrainian border. Putin is either pulling a bluff to end all bluffs or it’s imminent.

You must be logged on to see media items
 
safcforever said:
It could be an exercise that’s to see how they would plan for an invasion. Come Monday endex will be called and everyone heads home for tea and medals
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its could be.

But other issues like the shelling and "false flag" issues to give a pretext to moving in has already started, its 50/50 atm.

We have seen other false flag evens become the pretext to an attack in the past, Germany and USA to name just two nations that used that to great effect.

I can also see this as a great option of a proxy war for the USA mind, get Russia bogged down in a difficult fight, while suppling money and weapons to "bleed" the Russians, again something we have seen many times over in history.

Either way I feel heart sorry for the locals catch in this terrible "game" thats being played out.
 
Pete the Pirate said:
Disagree because I cannot see how they exist without the support or control of the Kremlin.

Given violations of the ceasefire now exceed over 2000 its untenable to think this isn't being orchestrated in tandem.
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The first part of the sentence accepts that. The Donbass leader is more or less acting as a representative of Russia, he even had a ceremony where he joined one of the political parties. He openly states he wants to be part of the Russian Federation so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he acts against the interests of the Minsk agreement which if adhered to, might keep the region within the Ukraine authority.

On the other side, there are a few independent militias that are currently aligned with the government and funded in part by NATO countries. The infamous Azov battalion is one. We don't know if they share the same vision for Ukraine as the people who fund them either. The far right in Ukraine don't care much about democracy, the country as a whole has little experience of it and what it has seen has been manipulated by foreigners, most notably Russia, US and EU which ended up tearing it apart.

I wouldn't attempt to predict how this ends. I learned from the Syrian war that what we see and hear in the media, particularly the analysis, isn't an accurate reflection of the reality on the ground.
 
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