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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)
- Thread starter chunkyshanhawk53
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If Russia invades Ukraine they will be committing themselves to years of occupation.The Ukrainians will cause as much trouble as they can and keeping control will cost lives and be expensive. The west would almost certainly help any resistance to the occupation and impose economic sanctions. Putin has to keep the people of Russia happy too. If the body count rises and the shops are emptier then public opinion will turn against him. He’s not universally loved at home as it is and the expectations of Russians have risen.
It may be that Putin has put himself in a position where he feels he has to invade or look weak but it could be a very expensive mistake. If he just takes the part of Ukraine with a large ethnic Russian population that might make the position of ethnic Russians in other Eastern European countries difficult - the enemy within and seen as an excuse for Russia to invade. Cutting gas supplies will hurt Western Europe but will also have an impact on Russia. Western European countries are already moving as quickly as they can to becoming self sufficient in energy and they won’t put themselves in this position again - lessons are being learned and possibly outside Europe too. Putin’s actions are concentrating minds in the rest of Europe and large civilian casualties in Ukraine will increase anti Russian feelings in the rest of former USSR states where Russians are not particularly liked in any case.
It may be that Putin has put himself in a position where he feels he has to invade or look weak but it could be a very expensive mistake. If he just takes the part of Ukraine with a large ethnic Russian population that might make the position of ethnic Russians in other Eastern European countries difficult - the enemy within and seen as an excuse for Russia to invade. Cutting gas supplies will hurt Western Europe but will also have an impact on Russia. Western European countries are already moving as quickly as they can to becoming self sufficient in energy and they won’t put themselves in this position again - lessons are being learned and possibly outside Europe too. Putin’s actions are concentrating minds in the rest of Europe and large civilian casualties in Ukraine will increase anti Russian feelings in the rest of former USSR states where Russians are not particularly liked in any case.
Was supposed to be going out there a few times this year myself.
Cant see that happening now, sadly.
Cant see that happening now, sadly.
Sinbad Skullhead
Central Defender
Its funny all the commie sympathisers are all jumping award the putin express just remember the posters when they try to jump off when their woke point scoring piggyback journey ends and the realism hits.
APH
Central Defender
Any occupation would be more straightforward than Iraq or Afghanistan. For a start there will be a portion (how big would be the question) of the population who would be all for it, more so in Eastern Ukraine. Culturally they have alot in common.
I do wonder whether it's a case of now or never for Putin. Similar to Brexit (more likely to be pro EU), the younger generations are increasingly leaning toward the West.
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Alcoholic_Author
Striker
The ace card in this discussion is China, if there is a conflict between Russia and the US, Europe will start off as a US proxy but end up doing the bulk work. Europe cannot defeat Russia in a serious conflict and if the US get stretched China will have gains to make by joining the conflict.
The Albanian
Winger
Any war that pitted the US and NATO vs China and Russia - fought without the use of nukes - would be a whitewash in favour of the US and NATO.
Most of russias military tech is on its last legs. And if china’s is built like everything else they build, it’ll be cheap tat that breaks within minutes of use
Remember the problems we had in Northern Ireland? It doesn’t matter if some of the population support the occupation as long as a significant minority don’t there will be problems. Increasingly those problems tend to be taken to the occupying country. A few well placed bombs in Russian cities and suddenly the civilian population takes notice. Troubles abroad are one thing but troubles at home are another. Bomb hoaxes are almost as disruptive as bombs and less risky. I remember being unable to use the university library on several occasions because of bomb threats and that was in Dundee not one of the most prominent targets. That went on for decades - it almost didn’t feel like Christmas without the annual bombing in London and other cities to keep Christmas shoppers on their toes. I’m sure those lessons have been learnt by Ukrainians.
Alcoholic_Author
Striker
We don’t agree then, the political strife in the US and Europe, the mere fact we can’t agree on anything suggests to me we wouldn’t have any appetite for any sort of drawn out conflict. NATO contains Turkey doesn’t it? NATO could fall apart due to internal conflict. Iraq and Israel could go all in, Israel might lose its head and go first if things were collapsing. The West is done, it cannot contain the world under it’s hegemony like the past.
The Albanian
Winger
Alcoholic_Author
Striker
With respect, I disagree.
The European armed forces can certainly defeat our Russian equivalents, particularly if we are defending. The Russians risk absolutely catastrophic losses if they advance any further than the contested areas of eastern Ukraine.
I was hugely impressed and humbled with the UAF when I was teaching in their university last year. They’re proud and capable, not to mention determined.
He messed up the title.Your finest yet.
No one will remember once it’s finished though
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Mercia Blackcat
Striker
A full scale conventional war for China against the USA and its Eastern allies would be risky for China. They have a large army but the number of combat troops is much lower than what they quote as they include those working as regional police and other roles in the total. The places they could go is limited. They would probably attempt an invasion of Taiwan but that would be costly. They could move against South Korea but that is well defended. The Chinese do have some modern technological weapons but nowhere near the level of the USA. Even if they combined naval operations with the Russians I doubt they could be much of a match for the US Pacific Fleet. On their own doorstep they would face South Korean, Japanese, American and Australian forces and even Vietnam is now leaning towards being more sympathetic to those forces than China's who who they hate with a passion. China would be better off staying out of such a conflict for a good few years yet.
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lets indulge this fantasy for a moment
in a war with Russia, the US heavy lifters would be the Air Force and the Army
in a war with China, the US heavy lifters would be the US Navy and US Marines
America would not be stretched in any meaningful way if involved in a limited war in Europe and the Pacific, and the minute they start to feel stretched is where they'll threaten to escalate with nukes
Alcoholic_Author
Striker
Consider a European war effort that contains the different nations, some will naturally be dissenting, it will cause political strife and a bogged down bureaucracy and if Germany/France override protocols due to necessity it causes further break downs in a war effort. Europe cannot fight effectively against a major power for these reasons.
The Albanian
Winger
There’s zero chance of China entering a full scale war against the countries that all the cheap shit it exports
On the flip side, many European countries have joint battalions and squadrons, so can cooperate together when needed.
Alcoholic_Author
Striker
If they resort to nukes everyone loses, the US doesn’t win in that scenario.
Not in the way the Russian, Chinese or US armies can.
Arfa Sleep
Striker
Yes it can, that's why they exercise and work together so they can be effective when needed.
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