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Where can we finish? compendium thread?

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GipseT said:
Since the move to a 20-team league in 1995, the average points tally for the 18th-placed team (the highest to go down) is 35.6 points.

We are currently on 36 points after 24 games... We have already reached the "average" safety mark with 14 games to spare. Historically, 36 points is enough to stay up in more than 50% of all Premier League seasons.


The "2-Sigma" Safety Net represents a threshold that covers 97.7% of all likely outcomes.

Based on 30 years of data, the standard deviation for the drop is ~3.4 points.
The "Ironclad" Safety Number: 43 points. At 43 points, you are safe. Only once in history has a team gone down with more than 40 (West Ham in 2003 with 42).


The Math for the Rest of 2026

Current Points: 36
Target for 99% Safety: 43
Required: 7 points from 14 matches.
Required Rate: 0.50 Points Per Game (PPG).
Our Current Rate: 1.50 PPG.
We could literally play at one-third of our current level and still hit the scientific safety mark.

The "Weak Floor" Factor
The current bottom three are historically poor. West Ham (18th) is on 20 points, Burnley (19th) on 15, and Wolves (20th) on just 8. For us to go down, West Ham would need to win almost half their remaining games while we lose every single one.

The risk of relegation is now statistically less than 0.01%.

No need ti worry about relegation, we should be trying to figure out if we can make it to Europe some way.
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So you’re saying the Magpies have a better chance of going down than us…lol
 

42 said:
The SoL is a fortress & were unbeaten at home even having played the current top 3

14 games to go, 7 each H&A

Looking at fixtures, we should really pick up at about 13 at home (3 W, 4D maintaining the unbeaten run)
Away if we win 1, and a couple of draws

Gives us 18 points, add to current 36, 54 should be enough for 8th place
Then Man City get hit with a big points deduction & we climb to 7th & qualify for conference league.

With an extra win, could even scrape 6th place if Man City get done
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You expecting to play chelsea,liverpool and man utd at home and lose neither of those games ?
 
So it's probable that we are safe. I saw us get relegated in the late 70s, when it was probable that we would stay up! I will relax when it's a fact.
 
SuperKevsLeftBoot said:
Who do people think will finish 3rd bottom?

West Ham forest or Leeds?

I just can’t see west ham getting out but if Leeds have a couple big injuries e.g. DCL.. I think they could be dragged right back into it.
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West Ham play Leeds last game of the season. :eek:

Mind you they have to start winning soon. Starting with Burnley this coming weekend.
 
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