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Where can we finish? compendium thread?

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GipseT said:
Since the move to a 20-team league in 1995, the average points tally for the 18th-placed team (the highest to go down) is 35.6 points.

We are currently on 36 points after 24 games... We have already reached the "average" safety mark with 14 games to spare. Historically, 36 points is enough to stay up in more than 50% of all Premier League seasons.


The "2-Sigma" Safety Net represents a threshold that covers 97.7% of all likely outcomes.

Based on 30 years of data, the standard deviation for the drop is ~3.4 points.
The "Ironclad" Safety Number: 43 points. At 43 points, you are safe. Only once in history has a team gone down with more than 40 (West Ham in 2003 with 42).


The Math for the Rest of 2026

Current Points: 36
Target for 99% Safety: 43
Required: 7 points from 14 matches.
Required Rate: 0.50 Points Per Game (PPG).
Our Current Rate: 1.50 PPG.
We could literally play at one-third of our current level and still hit the scientific safety mark.

The "Weak Floor" Factor
The current bottom three are historically poor. West Ham (18th) is on 20 points, Burnley (19th) on 15, and Wolves (20th) on just 8. For us to go down, West Ham would need to win almost half their remaining games while we lose every single one.

The risk of relegation is now statistically less than 0.01%.

No need ti worry about relegation, we should be trying to figure out if we can make it to Europe some way.
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Nothing shows confidence so much as breaking down to minutiae exactly why you are safe.

I have the same PTSD and appreciate the PSA. However if any club could break records and set precedent for going down, it is us, we have form... we broke records we set.

Was just saying pretty much we are comfortably safe to my brother just this morning... the more acceptable sane public face of the utter anguish and trauma of years of torture that whispers we will manage to snatch abject failure from the jaws of logic and all historical precedent.
 

Some of our best away results have been where we have been solid defensively as well and not "braver" (Liverpool & Chelsea). I'm making the assumption that by braver, you mean more open and attacking football. We fell to bits at Brentford when the game opened up.
 
Iansamackem said:
59 points should get us Europe, that means taking 23 from the last 14 games (1.64 ppg) I think its doable but we need to pick up the away form sharpish and if we can get somewhere around 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses that would set us up nicely, however unlikely it sounds.


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away games left:

arsenal
bourmemouth
leeds
mags
villa
wolves
everton

i reckon 1 win, 4 draws, 2 defeats. 7 points from 7 games at best

means we have to take 16 points from 7 home games - 5 wins minimum .

its a very tough ask to reach 59 points
 
Nicky Winterwasp said:
Chasing Europe is a bit of a fallacy imo. Unless its the established champions league teams like arsenal/ man city with enormous squads, it just seems to derail everyone else. Look at palace and forest this year. I remember a few years back it was almost guaranteed that teams who'd played in Europe on a Thursday night would get beaten on the sunday.
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So you suggesting we throw a couple of games to make sure we dont qualify? Which ones do you want to throw? Saudis away maybe?
 
Iansamackem said:
59 points should get us Europe, that means taking 23 from the last 14 games (1.64 ppg) I think its doable but we need to pick up the away form sharpish and if we can get somewhere around 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses that would set us up nicely, however unlikely it sounds.


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We'll lose more than 3,I think we'll lose at 2 home and likely 3 away.Thats only leaving room for a draw or two with the rest needing to be wins.Draws really could be our downfall.Fulham,BHA,NF,Spurs at home minimum 10 points is going to be needed.I just dont see 3 away wins.
 
I don't think we will ever be challenging for the league, but being comfortable each season and the odd cup run / foray into Europe must be something we would all be happy with?
 
Zombie said:
Yeah my bad I misread it!
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I also wasn't clear with what I said. As Jasper said, the space doesn't move down because someone who finishes in a Premier League qualifying spot but also wins it.

The 4 are guaranteed. The 5th is dependent on the co-efficient. 6th space only happens if a team wins the Champions League but finishes outside the qualifying spots, or wins the Europa League and finish outside the qualifying spots.
Iansamackem said:
59 points should get us Europe, that means taking 23 from the last 14 games (1.64 ppg) I think its doable but we need to pick up the away form sharpish and if we can get somewhere around 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses that would set us up nicely, however unlikely it sounds.


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I've got us getting 18 points from the rest of the season. Wins v Brighton, Spurs, Wolves & Everton. Draws with Bournemouth, Fulham, Forest, Leeds & Newcastle. Defeats to Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal & Villa.
 
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I am happy. Beyond what I ever expected from us this season. Staying clear of relegation consistently and bagging an FA Cup would be absolutely perfect in the coming years.
 
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