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The xG nonsense

Charmless Man said:
Don’t think people realise a penalty is only ~0.75-0.76 xG.

If you have the keeper closing the angle a defender on your back and you’re off balance (which I think most models take account of) it’s going to be substantially lower.
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I think the problem is, a lot of people think it's much easier to be a professional footballer than it is as well.

Like, they see a one on one chance and think "well this is definitely a goal, it's dead easy". I've literally just pulled four off the top of my head and we only scored one of them. They aren't that easy.
 

MadMackem7 said:
Spot on mate, xG tables are a bit of a stretch from just xG, they get stuff right but it isn’t the be all and end all

Oh yeah my point is just, the person debating with me clearly seems to suggest distance from goal = easiness of the chance. Which just isn’t the full case
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It isn’t just distance FFS .. have you played football at a decent level? Can you see the space on the right of Sanchez who is also leaning in the opposite direction. Deary me
 
Heres a look at us with an explanation. its not shite its just not black and white. But common sense tells you we cant keep relying on such a high conversion % or Roefs and the defence keeping everything out. We need to change evolve so its not so "off" the norm.

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We've only scored 42 goals this season but when we have scored we made it count. There's only been 3 games where we've scored but got nothing from the game. 3 of those goals were at Villa. We're 2nd best in the league behind only Arsenal for defending leads, seeing the game out and getting the win. Our success has been based on what our eyes have told us, by being very strong in defence.
It hasnt been pretty at times but hell its been effective. Europe here we come.
 
Morny said:
I think the problem is, a lot of people think it's much easier to be a professional footballer than it is as well.

Like, they see a one on one chance and think "well this is definitely a goal, it's dead easy". I've literally just pulled four off the top of my head and we only scored one of them. They aren't that easy.
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Are they all the same as Brobbeys 🙄🤣
 
Always think about MoN's time here would have been an interesting study in xG. When he came in, it was amazing and magic, but we scored *loads* of absolute screamers. Felt like every time we touched the ball from 30 yards it flew in. Obviously not sustainable.

Lo and behold, once Frazier Campbell stopped smashing in 25 yard volleys, we were turgid and uninspired and became one of the worst teams in the league.

What should have happened is that coaches should have been looking in that early spell and thought "it's great we are getting results, but we need to find a way to ensure we can create and score normal goals so that when this slows down we still do well".

In theory, that's what could happen now; we say "we have no done amazing this season, and deserve all our credit...however next year, let's ensure we try to improve our chance creation so that (for example) more goals go in against us we are scoring more to mitigate".
 
A Visiting Villan said:
No. I've decided XG is useless based on watching my own team totally and utterly destroy it all season.
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And ignore everything that suggests it's a useful metric.
MancMackem2 said:
I can't wait until the boffins finally get this xG etc cracked and we can all stop going to matches and buying Sky. FotMob can just release everyone's results for the week at 3pm on a Saturday.

Our lass will be delighted.
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A lot of the arguments against xG seem to be that 'all that matters is the score', so surely you can do that now?
 
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AC Mack said:
Apologies if the point you were making was something other than xG being a load of shite.
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Just irony in my post mate. It's neither the be all nor the end all. It's part of a picture. People seem to either love it or hate it. Dont know why. It's basically just another stat. And like all stats, they are only as good as the user.
 
MancMackem2 said:
Just irony in my post mate. It's neither the be all nor the end all. It's part of a picture. People seem to either love it or hate it. Dont know why. It's basically just another stat. And like all stats, they are only as good as the user.
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One of the issues seems to be that the people who 'hate' it think the people who 'love' it treat it as gospel, whereas in reality they know it's just a useful metric that can be used alongside other things.
 
AC Mack said:
And ignore everything that suggests it's a useful metric.


A lot of the arguments against xG seem to be that 'all that matters is the score', so surely you can do that now?
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I dont think it's a useful metric. Teams who get lots of penalties are likely to have a higher XG for example. We didn't get a single penalty all season but people dont consider that when looking at the XG table.

To me, it's just more guff that we could do without. But crack on if it helps you understand the game better. It's just not for me.
 
A Visiting Villan said:
I dont think it's a useful metric. Teams who get lots of penalties are likely to have a higher XG for example. We didn't get a single penalty all season but people dont consider that when looking at the XG table.

To me, it's just more guff that we could do without. But crack on if it helps you understand the game better. It's just not for me.
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Then I'd be looking into why you didn’t get a penalty all season. The first thought is that you don't get the ball into the box very often, or you don't have many touches in the opposition penalty area. Then I'd be looking at why that's the case - is it because you're not very good (nope) or overly cautious, you play a certain style which prevents you from getting players up the pitch, or your players have certain traits such as Rogers shooting from distance a lot. Is it just chance or statiatical noise?

Obviously turn that around for those who do get plenty of penalties.
 
AC Mack said:
Then I'd be looking into why you didn’t get a penalty all season. The first thought is that you don't get the ball into the box very often, or you don't have many touches in the opposition penalty area. Then I'd be looking at why that's the case - is it because you're not very good (nope) or overly cautious, you play a certain style which prevents you from getting players up the pitch, or your players have certain traits such as Rogers shooting from distance a lot. Is it just chance or statiatical noise?

Obviously turn that around for those who do get plenty of penalties.
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We finished 4th. We were in the opposition box a lot. Spurs didn't get one either and finished 17th.

Edit: Not sure this helps the debate at all. Just pointing it out.
 
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