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The xG nonsense

42 said:
I think where it falls down & why we have our situation is that if you assign say 0.1 xg for a given situation. That 0.1 comes from the average of 1000s of matches. Now if youre playing a team with a ropey defence then that situation would result in a higher probability. Equally when you do it against a team of geat shot stoppers (ie safc) then it would be lower. So because we have great shot stoppers, then oppositions xg is actually overstated, so then trying to produce a league of what should've happened just doesnt work.
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Not sure. I get what you're saying but the vast majority of 'chances' from the point where the shot is taken we're talking about the striker vs the goal keeper. This makes xG even more informative because you can draw conclusions about a goalkeepers performance based on their effect on xG. In Roefs case I'd imagine he saves far more than he's expected to because he's such a good keeper. The xG isn't overstated, it's the same xG that any striker would be offered which means a sensible analysis of the data would be that teams don't convert their chances against you because you have a better than average keeper.
 

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