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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

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jcrossan said:
Just hope this doesn't spill into either the Baltics or the Balkans.
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The problem is that it sets a precedent. Those areas all have sub regions that might be ethnically closer to a neighbour & if I were in Estonia or Latvia (25% Russian) I'd be worried. It very much looks like recognition of independent areas then "helping them defend themselves" is the model.

Smart money now on some sort of movement planted in Taiwan to make fake news about a plea to China for help.
 

Suomifinland said:
The problem is that it sets a precedent. Those areas all have sub regions that might be ethnically closer to a neighbour & if I were in Estonia or Latvia (25% Russian) I'd be worried. It very much looks like recognition of independent areas then "helping them defend themselves" is the model.

Smart money now on some sort of movement planted in Taiwan to make fake news about a plea to China for help.
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You could well be right on the independent areas. He rocked into Crimea 8 years ago - nowt really happened so why not go for the other bits.
 
Suomifinland said:
This I think. Recognise as independent & then be "invited in". Russia will say it isn't an invasion as they don't see it as Ukrainian land, they were invited & in fact on that basis Ukraine are technically invaders as they were not invited.

Russia will go in & take on "an unwelcome Ukraine force that are firing on them after they were invited into an independent state".
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Yep. And it’s an impossible situation for Ukraine.

We all know how this goes. If the move is unopposed then it will be de facto independent states and a year or so down the line, once that has bedded in as the norm, then Russia will hold a rigged referendum and bring them into Russia.

However If Ukraine defend it then it brings them into direct conflict with Russia with them firing the first shot and potentially gives Putin his wanted justification to go further.

It’s a trap. As a Russian expert said on Twitter. Originally Putin wanted the Donbas back as part of Ukraine with a veto on NATO membership. Job done. But the West won’t play ball. It’s not about the Donbas it’s about bigger Ukraine and their relationship with NATO. So if he is prepared to give up his trump card of a pro Russian breakaway region holding a NATO veto it’s because he has decided on another path to stop Ukraine through military action. If Ukraine engage Russian soldiers in the Donbas it’s exactly what he wants and he has his Causes belli to invade the whole country. He has laid a trap for the West
 
MonkeyLove said:
Yep. And it’s an impossible situation for Ukraine.

We all know how this goes. If the move is unopposed then it will be de facto independent states and a year or so down the line, once that has bedded in as the norm, then Russia will hold a rigged referendum and bring them into Russia.

However If Ukraine defend it then it brings them into direct conflict with Russia with them firing the first shot and potentially gives Putin his wanted justification to go further.

It’s a trap. As a Russian expert said on Twitter. Originally Putin wanted the Donbas back as part of Ukraine with a veto on NATO membership. Job done. But the West won’t play ball. It’s not about the Donbas it’s about bigger Ukraine and their relationship with NATO. So if he is prepared to give up his trump card of a pro Russian breakaway region holding a NATO veto it’s because he has decided on another path to stop Ukraine through military action. If Ukraine engage Russian soldiers in the Donbas it’s exactly what he wants and he has his Causes belli to invade the whole country. He has laid a trap for the West
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Any idea if they are good economic areas? If the areas want to be Russian (I'm not sure if they do) can Ukraine not just say for anyone not wanting to be Russian, leave. Plead for the West to introduce heavy sanctions on Russia, then make it as awkward as possible for the areas to thrive economically and make a fairly skint Russia pay for its upkeep indefinitely, drain their resources for a lifetime?
 
Wild Card said:
Any idea if they are good economic areas? If the areas want to be Russian (I'm not sure if they do) can Ukraine not just say for anyone not wanting to be Russian, leave. Plead for the West to introduce heavy sanctions on Russia, then make it as awkward as possible for the areas to thrive economically and make a fairly skint Russia pay for its upkeep indefinitely, drain their resources for a lifetime?
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Possibly. But Putin probably wouldn’t. He doesn’t want or need the Donbas really. It will make Russia a mere fraction of a percent bigger when the last thing they need is more territory. It’s just an excuse to roll into Ukrainian territory and elicit a response from Ukraine that gives Putin an excuse to escalate.

It seems the worse thing Ukraine could maybe do is respond and play into Putin’s hands. But then can they just let him have it?
 
MonkeyLove said:
Possibly. But Putin probably wouldn’t. He doesn’t want or need the Donbas really. It will make Russia a mere fraction of a percent bigger when the last thing they need is more territory. It’s just an excuse to roll into Ukrainian territory and elicit a response from Ukraine that gives Putin an excuse to escalate.

It seems the worse thing Ukraine could maybe do is respond and play into Putin’s hands. But then can they just let him have it?
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Like you say, dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. They really need the west to back them up (non aggressively) and say something like any further annexes of Ukrainian territory, will trigger a very heavy and united western response. Dismantle the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
 
spitfire said:
You could well be right on the independent areas. He rocked into Crimea 8 years ago - nowt really happened so why not go for the other bits.
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I can’t see him going into a NATO country. It’s a completely different ball game and article 5 would have him at war with everyone from the US, us and Turkey.

If he ever did it I reckon it would only be as part of a massive gamble that article 5 wouldn’t actually be followed and NATO wouldn’t defend them. If that happened he is on a win win as effectively he brings an end to NATO, the entire principle is mutual defence, and if the other countries failed to come to the aid of even its tiniest member then effectively it may as well pack up and go home.

I think it’s highly unlikely but if Putin is gambling on it as a way to end NATO once and for all it could be an exceptionally high risk he is willing to take
Breaking news.

Putin to address the Russian people on his decision within the next hour. Could be just a few hours away from tanks rolling into Ukraine

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