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Newcastle thread Oct and Nov 2020

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Roker Mackem said:
Or 1 win in 6 against top flight opposition and poor performances against lower league teams.
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If we'd drew at West Ham, beat Brighton and lost to Spurs we'd have the same points, and those results wouldn't seem unusual for a mid table team. Unexpected point away to Spurs and a good win at West Ham, with a terrible performance against Brighton and we've still got 4 points either way. Also into the quarter finals so that's good.
Results are fine, but the performances are a bit dodgy with the lack of attempts on goal a concern. 3 on target yielding 3 goals in 3 games is unsustainable and needs improvement.
Roker Mackem said:
Or 1 win in 6 against top flight opposition and poor performances against lower league teams.
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Also just to be accurate; we've won 3 of our 6 games (West Ham, Morecambe and Blackburn) drawn two (Spurs and Newport) and lost once to Brighton.
 
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scott934 said:
I think the Mags were lucky last season like, seemed to get a lot of undeserved results, it's continued into this season with the Spurs game. I think they're among the 3 worst PL teams in terms of performance, whether that plays out in results is another matter.
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Aye, but what you have to remember is...it's swings and roundabouts. We've had games where we've been on the end of those same results.
You make your own luck over a season, just as all teams do, over it.
 
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Nukehasslefan said:
Aye, but what you have to remember is...it's swings and roundabouts. We've had games where we've been on the end of those same results.
You make your own luck over a season, just as all teams do, over it.
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Your expected points was the worst in the league, meaning on a chance creation basis you likely got far more points than you'd expect from the performances.
 
scott934 said:
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Your expected points was the worst in the league, meaning on a chance creation basis you likely got far more points than you'd expect from the performances.
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They're stats bud.
I don't work on stats. I work on the actual game itself.
It's like commentators and pundits saying things like, " they've never won here in 36 years" or whatever, as if a team has little chance.

Each game deserves its own merit.
One game we might get hammered by having a go.
One game we may score 4 goals and play an enjoyable match.
Next game may produce a tired performance or a defensive cringeworthy performance.
I've seen them all and stats will not dictate anything that has not been played.

Forecasting is fine and stats are also fine for those who want to set up potential scenarios.
Weather forecasters often get it wrong, just as any forecaster/statistician can.


If the game was played by robots then stats and forecasting would be up there.
 
Nukehasslefan said:
They're stats bud.
I don't work on stats. I work on the actual game itself.
It's like commentators and pundits saying things like, " they've never won here in 36 years" or whatever, as if a team has little chance.

Each game deserves its own merit.
One game we might get hammered by having a go.
One game we may score 4 goals and play an enjoyable match.
Next game may produce a tired performance or a defensive cringeworthy performance.
I've seen them all and stats will not dictate anything that has not been played.

Forecasting is fine and stats are also fine for those who want to set up potential scenarios.
Weather forecasters often get it wrong, just as any forecaster/statistician can.


If the game was played by robots then stats and forecasting would be up there.
Click to expand...

Aye but it's stats based on chance creation vs chances created against you. It's at least a decent barometer to judge performance on. If you are out creating the opposition you'll win more games than you lose. And more to the point, the stats back up what I saw whenever I've watched nufc under Bruce, usually second best, riding their luck.
 
scott934 said:
Aye but it's stats based on chance creation vs chances created against you. It's at least a decent barometer to judge performance on. If you are out creating the opposition you'll win more games than you lose. And more to the point, the stats back up what I saw whenever I've watched nufc under Bruce, usually second best, riding their luck.
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Like I said, you make your own luck.
 
Lucky.Unlucky.
The mugs weren’t lucky to beat Newport.Luck played no part in it.
Newport played well but they weren’t unlucky to lose.Bad luck played no part in it.
We’ve deserved to win games and haven’t.Thats’t not unlucky.
We’ve won games and haven’t deserved to.That‘s not lucky.
Hitting the woodwork isn’t unlucky.
Having little posession and winning isn’t lucky.
 
Nukehasslefan said:
They're stats bud.
I don't work on stats. I work on the actual game itself.
It's like commentators and pundits saying things like, " they've never won here in 36 years" or whatever, as if a team has little chance.

Each game deserves its own merit.
One game we might get hammered by having a go.
One game we may score 4 goals and play an enjoyable match.
Next game may produce a tired performance or a defensive cringeworthy performance.
I've seen them all and stats will not dictate anything that has not been played.

Forecasting is fine and stats are also fine for those who want to set up potential scenarios.
Weather forecasters often get it wrong, just as any forecaster/statistician can.


If the game was played by robots then stats and forecasting would be up there.
Click to expand...

Sky have ruined younger generations with STATS, it’s literally all they ever talk about. The anti Bruce brigade use it constantly even when we win. The only stat that ever matters is points. Everything else is completely irrelevant.
 
Nukehasslefan said:
Aye, but what you have to remember is...it's swings and roundabouts. We've had games where we've been on the end of those same results.
You make your own luck over a season, just as all teams do, over it.
Click to expand...
Disagree. Takes a longer period of time than a season. Your XG stats last season were unbelievable. Games like Everton away, Chelsea at home were extreme examples but there was so many more games you got until deserved points. Sheff United away, palace at home, so many more. Remember that bizarre period when your strikers couldn't score but every week a different defender would come from nowhere to convert your only chance.

How many times do you think it went the other way? You enjoyed 'once a season' luck on many occasions. I think a lot of your fans recognise that to be fair.

Unless you improve performances you will be relegated because that kind of luck is not sustainable.
 
The Bruce and Benitez comparisons are mental mind , this board is the only place in the universe that could genuinely believe Bruce is anywhere near the manager Benitez is.
 
mad cyril said:
Sky have ruined younger generations with STATS, it’s literally all they ever talk about. The anti Bruce brigade use it constantly even when we win. The only stat that ever matters is points. Everything else is completely irrelevant.
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Aye but a bit of entertaining football as well, which we do get half the time.
gatopreto said:
Disagree. Takes a longer period of time than a season. Your XG stats last season were unbelievable. Games like Everton away, Chelsea at home were extreme examples but there was so many more games you got until deserved points. Sheff United away, palace at home, so many more. Remember that bizarre period when your strikers couldn't score but every week a different defender would come from nowhere to convert your only chance.

How many times do you think it went the other way? You enjoyed 'once a season' luck on many occasions. I think a lot of your fans recognise that to be fair.

Unless you improve performances you will be relegated because that kind of luck is not sustainable.
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Sorry bud but football isn't just about strikers. It's all about winning with whoever is capable of scoring at the time, in every game.
As for undeserved wins against sheff utd and that comeback against Everton...etc. It's all about taking the chances offered. That's the crux.
Stats are fine to use when creating talking point but they do not cater for the reality of the next up and coming game.
 
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