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Lee Congerton and Steve Houston's Focus On Analytics

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The Situation

Striker
I'm reading a book at the minute called "The Numbers Game". It's very similar to Soccernomics if anyone has read that and so far is a good read which I would recommend. There's an upcoming chapter called "they should have just signed Darren Bent" which should be interesting :lol:

Anyway, there's a reference made to Lee Congerton and Steve Houston (who for those who don't know is one of our scouts now) when they were at Hamburg. The author talks briefly about them being brought to Hamburg by Frank Arnesen. They're also referred to as intriguing (the author did meet them so hopefully there will be a bit more information on them as the book progresses).

Houston is a former insurance analyst who has worked with NBA teams and is one of footballs main technical scouts - i.e. he uses lots of data and statistics to determine potential recruits to target and areas in his own teams that need improving on. Things weren't going well at the time on the pitch for Hamburg so it never really took off for Congerton and Houston over there, but I think it is interesting that they seem to focus on the analytical side of the game.

It would suggest that we will be targeting players who rank high in certain statistical categories. I'm far too lazy to check myself and wouldn't have access to the reputable sites such as OPTA to check in any case, but it would be interesting to see if Pantimillon, Gomez and Jones as signings we have brought in so far have ranked near the top of any relevant statistical categories.

While a balance needs to be struck and one shouldn't judge everything off what a computer throws out, in my opinion it's good to see that we are trying to get ahead of the curve with having people who use as much information as possible to try to ensure a signing will be successful involved in our recruitment.
 

The Situation said:
I'm reading a book at the minute called "The Numbers Game". It's very similar to Soccernomics if anyone has read that and so far is a good read which I would recommend. There's an upcoming chapter called "they should have just signed Darren Bent" which should be interesting :lol:

Anyway, there's a reference made to Lee Congerton and Steve Houston (who for those who don't know is one of our scouts now) when they were at Hamburg. The author talks briefly about them being brought to Hamburg by Frank Arnesen. They're also referred to as intriguing (the author did meet them so hopefully there will be a bit more information on them as the book progresses).

Houston is a former insurance analyst who has worked with NBA teams and is one of footballs main technical scouts - i.e. he uses lots of data and statistics to determine potential recruits to target and areas in his own teams that need improving on. Things weren't going well at the time on the pitch for Hamburg so it never really took off for Congerton and Houston over there, but I think it is interesting that they seem to focus on the analytical side of the game.

It would suggest that we will be targeting players who rank high in certain statistical categories. I'm far too lazy to check myself and wouldn't have access to the reputable sites such as OPTA to check in any case, but it would be interesting to see if Pantimillon, Gomez and Jones as signings we have brought in so far have ranked near the top of any relevant statistical categories.

While a balance needs to be struck and one shouldn't judge everything off what a computer throws out, in my opinion it's good to see that we are trying to get ahead of the curve with having people who use as much information as possible to try to ensure a signing will be successful involved in our recruitment.
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We're behind the curve. Allardyce was doing this stuff at Bolton.
Moyes had a three special IT rooms added to Evertons training ground with access limited to him, his ass man, chief scout and their computer analysis lads. Players, ordinary scouts, coaches, admin staff etc werent allowed in. Cleaners neither as they did their own hoovering ffs. Everton were the first club to pay Football manager/Championship Manager for early/full access to their facts n figures.
The moneyball boat has sailed marra.
 
Thanks for that. It is interesting, however when you suggest "we're getting ahead of the curve" surely all scouts are doing this? It's only common sense really and I imagine by using OPTA anyone with an account would be able to filter/refine the results into whatever attribute they wish i.e. passing completion percentage.

It's hardly groundbreaking is it?
 
riffraff said:
We're behind the curve. Allardyce was doing this stuff at Bolton.
Moyes had a three special IT rooms added to Evertons training ground with access limited to him, his ass man, chief scout and their computer analysis lads. Players, ordinary scouts, coaches, admin staff etc werent allowed in. Cleaners neither as they did their own hoovering ffs. Everton were the first club to pay Football manager/Championship Manager for early/full access to their facts n figures.
The moneyball boat has sailed marra.
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maybe so but why are defenders worth less than forwards?
 
gipetto said:
Thanks for that. It is interesting, however when you suggest "we're getting ahead of the curve" surely all scouts are doing this? It's only common sense really and I imagine by using OPTA anyone with an account would be able to filter/refine the results into whatever attribute they wish i.e. passing completion percentage.

It's hardly groundbreaking is it?
Click to expand...
it's different to that, you can look at ball retention if you want that type of player but what congerton does is look for a plus minus stat where they'll score players based purely on the teams stats while they're on the pitch, it's obviously more complicated than that but it's linked to basketball where players who don't seem like superstars but when they're on the pitch their team get points and when they get subbed they start to concede them.

A basic analogy would be seb larrson who seems average most of the time but if you look at last season he invariably played in our victories last season and missed our defeats iirc.
 
Lewberry pie said:
it's different to that, you can look at ball retention if you want that type of player but what congerton does is look for a plus minus stat where they'll score players based purely on the teams stats while they're on the pitch, it's obviously more complicated than that but it's linked to basketball where players who don't seem like superstars but when they're on the pitch their team get points and when they get subbed they start to concede them.

A basic analogy would be seb larrson who seems average most of the time but if you look at last season he invariably played in our victories last season and missed our defeats iirc.
Click to expand...

You're going to have to explain that a little better mate as that could be pure coincidence. A stat would have to support why the teams were gaining additional points whilst the players were on the pitch and I'm not sure how that could be calculated other than taking into contention the usual key attributes such as pass completion, numbers of chances created/prevented, tackle completion rate, assists, goals etc. which brings me back to my original point, how is this something new? It is surely the norm now.

They can of course butter things up and try to create a system just to substantiate their job role and make it seem as though they are more innovative than anyone else.

Or, rather more complex and I'm not sure how this could be supported by stats - what if the player in question is more popular amongst the team? Would that factor into how our players respond on the pitch? Sometimes if a player is missing, it has a negative/positive mental affect on the team, not solely based on the quality of the player but I mean the atmosphere he helps create within the team.
 
gipetto said:
You're going to have to explain that a little better mate as that could be pure coincidence. A stat would have to support why the teams were gaining additional points whilst the players were on the pitch and I'm not sure how that could be calculated other than taking into contention the usual key attributes such as pass completion, numbers of chances created/prevented, tackle completion rate, assists, goals etc. which brings me back to my original point, how is this something new? It is surely the norm now.

They can of course butter things up and try to create a system just to substantiate their job role and make it seem as though they are more innovative than anyone else.

Or, rather more complex and I'm not sure how this could be supported by stats - what if the player in question is more popular amongst the team? Would that factor into how our players respond on the pitch? Sometimes if a player is missing, it has a negative/positive mental affect on the team, not solely based on the quality of the player but I mean the atmosphere he helps create within the team.
Click to expand...
you wouldn't necessarily need to as long as that stat was consistently true to form.

it's easy to see how it wouldn't work but would you rather just let Steve Bruce or harry redknapp have free reign buy players based on who they think will be good. Then they leave and you need a knew squad.

riffraff said:
People were asking that a long time before Moneyball was written.
Click to expand...
and yet defenders are still worth less than forwards.
 
The fact is everyone is doing it. Opta stats have a whole department for clubs to use whilst scouting players.

The only club that is doing anything significantly different is Manchester City who have development their own algorithms and analysis structure to add to the scouting dossier on any player.

Hopefully we can gain some kind of advantage with Congertons approach but we aren't doing anything that 99.9% of clubs are already doing I would suggest.
 
Moneyball said:
The fact is everyone is doing it. Opta stats have a whole department for clubs to use whilst scouting players.

The only club that is doing anything significantly different is Manchester City who have development their own algorithms and analysis structure to add to the scouting dossier on any player.

Hopefully we can gain some kind of advantage with Congertons approach but we aren't doing anything that 99.9% of clubs are already doing I would suggest.
Click to expand...

let's at least hope we catch up, when was the last time we earmarked a player, bought him and he was great straight away? Darren Bent probably and he was hardly a gamble.
 
Lewberry pie said:
let's at least hope we catch up, when was the last time we earmarked a player, bought him and he was great straight away? Darren Bent probably and he was hardly a gamble.
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Agreed. We seem to take the "he must be good cos he was for them for a bit" approach, and that hasn't reaped too many benefits.

Thorough analysis should lessen the risks in every transfer theoretically. As you can probably tell by my username I am a fan of sabermetrics and Bill James statistical evaluation of team structure. But the player and coach in me thinks football is a different beast that has too many intangibles to be so reliant on statistics, however thorough.

But every little helps and information is power!
 
gipetto said:
You're going to have to explain that a little better mate as that could be pure coincidence. A stat would have to support why the teams were gaining additional points whilst the players were on the pitch and I'm not sure how that could be calculated other than taking into contention the usual key attributes such as pass completion, numbers of chances created/prevented, tackle completion rate, assists, goals etc. which brings me back to my original point, how is this something new? It is surely the norm now.

They can of course butter things up and try to create a system just to substantiate their job role and make it seem as though they are more innovative than anyone else.

Or, rather more complex and I'm not sure how this could be supported by stats - what if the player in question is more popular amongst the team? Would that factor into how our players respond on the pitch? Sometimes if a player is missing, it has a negative/positive mental affect on the team, not solely based on the quality of the player but I mean the atmosphere he helps create within the team.
Click to expand...

I'm a basketball fan and I think Lewberry Pie is refereeing to PER stats, or Player Efficiency Rating. In basketball its aim is to put all of a players contributions in any given game/season into a single number, it was a formula developed by a bloke called John Hollinger. It's obviously focused and developed for basketball, but as Houston has experience working with NBA teams who use this stuff it would not be a surprise to see him try to adapt it to football.

Wiki breaks it down much better than I could do:

You must be logged on to see external links
 
The Situation said:
I'm reading a book at the minute called "The Numbers Game". It's very similar to Soccernomics if anyone has read that and so far is a good read which I would recommend. There's an upcoming chapter called "they should have just signed Darren Bent" which should be interesting :lol:

Anyway, there's a reference made to Lee Congerton and Steve Houston (who for those who don't know is one of our scouts now) when they were at Hamburg. The author talks briefly about them being brought to Hamburg by Frank Arnesen. They're also referred to as intriguing (the author did meet them so hopefully there will be a bit more information on them as the book progresses).

Houston is a former insurance analyst who has worked with NBA teams and is one of footballs main technical scouts - i.e. he uses lots of data and statistics to determine potential recruits to target and areas in his own teams that need improving on. Things weren't going well at the time on the pitch for Hamburg so it never really took off for Congerton and Houston over there, but I think it is interesting that they seem to focus on the analytical side of the game.

It would suggest that we will be targeting players who rank high in certain statistical categories. I'm far too lazy to check myself and wouldn't have access to the reputable sites such as OPTA to check in any case, but it would be interesting to see if Pantimillon, Gomez and Jones as signings we have brought in so far have ranked near the top of any relevant statistical categories.

While a balance needs to be struck and one shouldn't judge everything off what a computer throws out, in my opinion it's good to see that we are trying to get ahead of the curve with having people who use as much information as possible to try to ensure a signing will be successful involved in our recruitment.
Click to expand...

very interesting, cheers for that

Lewberry pie said:
it's different to that, you can look at ball retention if you want that type of player but what congerton does is look for a plus minus stat where they'll score players based purely on the teams stats while they're on the pitch, it's obviously more complicated than that but it's linked to basketball where players who don't seem like superstars but when they're on the pitch their team get points and when they get subbed they start to concede them.

A basic analogy would be seb larrson who seems average most of the time but if you look at last season he invariably played in our victories last season and missed our defeats iirc.
Click to expand...

He also does god knows how much running, pressing etc. Would have all the stats for Larsson, so know surprise he has been signed up for a few more years.
 
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