Lee Congerton and Steve Houston's Focus On Analytics

[TartanMackem]

Jermain Defoe is a very good example of the type of player you mention. Always good for 15 goals a season but when you look closely they were in the form of braces or hat tricks against the likes of Hull, Wigan etc. or scoring a couple to finish a game off. Very rarely were his goals the winner against Arsenal or Man Utd for example.

He was actually who I was thinking of when mentioning it, but I didn't have the stats to confirm if it was true.

Another was Anthony Stokes in the SPL right before we signed him. Everyone quoted his goals-to-games ratio, but it included hattricks against weaker opposition.

 

[BumbleBee]

Here you go...

Altidore: 19 starts, 12 subs (1783 minutes): 9 wins (3 wins when starts), 6 draws (5 draws when starts), 16 defeats (11 defeats when starts)
Fletcher: 13 starts, 7 subs (1238 minutes): 5 wins (4 wins when starts), 6 draws (2 draws when starts), 9 defeats (7 defeats when starts)


My interpretation of those stats is we are c25% more likely to win a game when Altidore plays. A draw is the same ratio when either play. Is that correct?

 

[TartanMackem]

For the record, I'm finding this book (the Numbers Game) a lot less interesting and engaging than Soccernomics.

I also think some of their conclusions are rather frustrating, because they've collected data without making other, harder to quantify considerations.

Soccernomics I couldn't put down. This I'm desperate just to get finished so I can read something else. Interesting how two books on similar subjects can have such different outcomes (for me anyway).

The "keeping a clean sheet is worth more points than scoring 1 goal" bit has been the most intriguing bit.

 

[TwasOnTheFifthOfMay]

Is it similar to Why England Loses?

 

[TartanMackem]

Is it similar to Why England Loses?

I believe that has now been renamed Soccernomics in later updated editions. So yes, it's similar (though so far for me not as good. Mind I'm only halfway through).

 

[riffraff]

A/oh well if you read the book before me you're automatically THE authority on the subject,
B/Sam allerdyce has never failed yet has he? The mags actually sacked him because the want to play the West Ham way or some other embarrassing thing for them.

A/ My reply was obviously semi alluding to the jumpers for goalposts jibe that implied I had my head in the sand regarding footballs changing methods.

B/ EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!! At last the peeny seems to have dropped!!!!!! Allardyce has failed plenty of times which proves my point that opta analytics isnt the be all and end all. We got there in the end didnt we?

 

[Lewberry pie]

A/ My reply was obviously alluding to the jumpers for goalposts jibe that implied I had my head in the sand regarding footballs changing methods.

B/ EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!! At last the peeny seems to have dropped!!!!!! Allardyce has failed plenty of times which proves my point that opta analytics isnt the be all and end all. We got there in the end didnt we?

i think you've misread my post, because i don't think allardyce has failed anywhere he's been, fans just don't like his style of play.

 

[The Situation]

For the record, I'm finding this book (the Numbers Game) a lot less interesting and engaging than Soccernomics.

I also think some of their conclusions are rather frustrating, because they've collected data without making other, harder to quantify considerations.

Soccernomics I couldn't put down. This I'm desperate just to get finished so I can read something else. Interesting how two books on similar subjects can have such different outcomes (for me anyway).

The "keeping a clean sheet is worth more points than scoring 1 goal" bit has been the most intriguing bit.

I agree mate. It's an enjoyable read, not mind-blowing or owt but still interesting. Considering how good Soccernomics was, I find it hard to think that it will ever be beaten when it comes to books on this subject.

 

[North of the Smoke]

You can run as much data through as many models as you like, but if the results are not acted upon it means absolutely fuck all.

Half of this analysis is a load of crap, have a look at some of the statistical analysis, and see which players top some of the categories.

 

[riffraff]

Just reread the thread and fook me Ive been dragged away from the reason I came on it in the first place (my own fault).

If SAFC have just now decided to adopt this analytics policy then fuck me theyre behind the times.
Sam fuckin Allardyce was all ower this stuff when he was at Bolton and look whats happened to them in the seven (7) years since he left!!!!. Seven years people (7). Thats seven years after the event SAFC are on the case!!!
This is just more bullshit to feed the fans along the lines of Mercimek is the new Staam and Fredgaard was the most sort after Danish player since the Laudrups and Tom Peeters was Belgiums hottest prospect for decades etc etc etc. basically more Echo bullshit.

This brave new SAFC world may work if SAFC are the only ones with this info up their sleeves but theyre not are they?. Are they? Eh? If every club has this info then the status quo remains the same. Im not having it and Im not swallowing it.

 

[Flash Gordon]

Just reread the thread and fook me Ive been dragged away from the reason I came on it in the first place (my own fault).

If SAFC have just now decided to adopt this analytics policy then fuck me theyre behind the times.
Sam fuckin Allardyce was all ower this stuff when he was at Bolton and look whats happened to them in the seven (7) years since he left!!!!. Seven years people (7). Thats seven years after the event SAFC are on the case!!!
This is just more bullshit to feed the fans along the lines of Mercimek is the new Staam and Fredgaard was the most sort after Danish player since the Laudrups and Tom Peeters was Belgiums hottest prospect for decades etc etc etc. basically more Echo bullshit.

This brave new SAFC world may work if SAFC are the only ones with this info up their sleeves but theyre not are they?. Are they? Eh? If every club has this info then the status quo remains the same. Im not having it and Im not swallowing it.

What absolute nonsense. So every club is going to be more successful in their approach to transfers? I'm not saying we will, but that's what we're trying to do.

Also, if every club already had this information 7 years ago, then we've been staying up whilst at a disadvantage. If we now apply this information that everyone else has been using for 7 years, wouldn't that see us improve more than everyone else?

 

[riffraff]

A/So every club is going to be more successful in their approach to transfers?
B/I'm not saying we will, but that's what we're trying to do.
C/Also, if every club already had this information 7 years ago, then we've been staying up whilst at a disadvantage.
D/If we now apply this information that everyone else has been using for 7 years, wouldn't that see us improve more than everyone else?

A/Where do I say that? Obviously thats not the case. Having the info is no guarantee of how well its going to be used by any club. Like having a big transfer war chest it depends how well its spent.
B/ I think we're all aware of this. Thats the whole point of starting down the analytics road even at this late stage.
C/ Where do I say that? Not every club has it, not every club that has have used it, some have used it more than others. This stuff aint given out free. It has to be paid for and different packages are available at differing prices.
D/ Depends how well we use it. In theory we couldve done wonders with the money ES has made available but we know whats happened to that. Granted its kept us up but others have stayed up spending less and others have flourished spending less.

Theres people on this thread who seem to think that analytics are gonna solve all our problems. This is obviously not the case. As Ive mentioned if everyone does use it then things will stay the same. THAT was the whole point of the moneyball book and fillum. The big boys adopted the theories and Oakland returned to "normalish". Over time the staus quo in US baseball will return.
If it helps avoid a few awful signings then alls well and good. I think its prime use may be as a way for ES to curb any managers transfer urges with facts n figures. THATS what this thread SHOULD be about. Remember he was the prime mover behind the 25 man squad system, THAT was welcomed with open arms by owners to keep costs down. I think this numbers game approach is being foisted on scouting and coaching staff all ower the game for similar purposes. IE "We aint signing him as his numbers dont stack up. We dont care how well you get on with his agent".