I'm obsessed with XG

Status
Not open for further replies.


Windypants said:
Maja scored again, last night... did fuck all for 90 minutes, then got the ball in the box. Like so many of his shots, this one was on target and just inside the post giving the 'keeper little chance - it's almost like he's aiming, or something.
Click to expand...

He also controlled it with one touch, so that was very poor from a xG point of view too. If only he'd have taken an extra couple of touches in the box we might have been able to claim we ought to have drawn rather than suffering the ignominy of yet another false win ;)

Of course Maja is on a good streak of form (but whether how much of his recent dip was to reversion towards the mean or because he injured his ankle is not clear yet).

As I said we have been a little lucky to date this season overall, but that we are showing a broken model up more than other teams when we're in the third tier due to (now corrected) mismanagement and a two year collapse in morale is hardly surprising.
 
Bristol Rovers have only conceded 14 goals, but they can't score enough. Any good players in their defence?

Or is the system they use the reason?
 
Windypants said:
Maja scored again, last night... did fuck all for 90 minutes, then got the ball in the box. Like so many of his shots, this one was on target and just inside the post giving the 'keeper little chance - it's almost like he's aiming, or something.
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
phunboy said:
No I've just been delving into it it goes on what sort of chance we have and score from. So a shot from 6 yards has a higher xg value than a shot from 18. Say a shot from inside 6 yards was given an 0.91xg then it would be expected to be scored 91% of the time while a shot from outside the box could be given as an 0.24xg chance. Given that we've scored very few tap ins and a fair few from outside the box means we're ahead of xg
Click to expand...
Is there an xg graph for general or is it based on per team? I'm mildly interested now.
 
Windypants said:
XG does not take into account ability. When Chelsea had Costa playing, they exceeded XG estimates by 0.6 goals per game. The following season, without Costa, they underachieved by about 0.5 goals per game. Who'd have thought... having players who are better finishers means you score more goals.
Click to expand...
What a revelation that is. And all that analysis, proved it.

123SunTan said:
Expected Goals: xG
Unexpected Goals: uxG
Sunderland 2018-19 Expected Unexpected Goals: euxG
Click to expand...
So all JR has to is plan for us to score more euxG? Sounds legit.
 
Last edited:
chave said:
I don't disagree with any of that, and I don't think anyone is disagreeing that player ability plays a large part in this. However, it seems as though the difference in skill still doesn't account for how big the gap is. Teams like Man City may have a similar xG difference to Sunderland, however they're expected to win comfortably on xG. If Sunderland's players are better than the rest of the league, surely xG should also be high. There's no record of any team doing what Sunderland are currently doing on an extended basis, and that's why it's an anomaly that most people think isn't sustainable.

For Maja specifically, the nearest players to his xG/goals ratio in the Prem are Hazard and Richarlison. Again, they're both great players but unlikely to carry on their current form for the entirety of the season.
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
People on here - and the wider football world - got in a lather about advanced analytics. Lots have seen Moneyball and couldn’t see past the difference between baseball and football. However they completely missed the effect that analytics have had on the NBA - a much more analogous team sport - where they have utterly changed the way the game is played. Analytics are now essential in how player and team performance is evaluated. Players who used to be highly valued (but detrimental to team performance) are now ignored for players who truly effect a teams chance of winning. The very methods that teams use to score have changed fundamentally. Ignoring the insights that have resulted is a guaranteed route to poor performance. I have every confidence that this transformation will happen in football too. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just a matter of computing power and complexity of model.

Sunderland desperately need to find every advantage we can in order to maximise our potential. We might be able to outspend rivals in league one but we won’t be able to the further up we go. We absolutely should be using analytics in both scouting and team dynamics in order to find an edge. Clubs who refuse to innovate are destined to stagnate. Sadly, from what we’ve heard from the new regime and the current manager, there doesn’t seem to be much understanding of this at Safc at the moment. It will ultimately erode all the hard work and successes they’ve had to date - as hard work, plucky attitude and a back-to-roots mentality inevitably run out of momentum.
 
The Cabbage said:
People on here - and the wider football world - got in a lather about advanced analytics. Lots have seen Moneyball and couldn’t see past the difference between baseball and football. However they completely missed the effect that analytics have had on the NBA - a much more analogous team sport - where they have utterly changed the way the game is played. Analytics are now essential in how player and team performance is evaluated. Players who used to be highly valued (but detrimental to team performance) are now ignored for players who truly effect a teams chance of winning. The very methods that teams use to score have changed fundamentally. Ignoring the insights that have resulted is a guaranteed route to poor performance. I have every confidence that this transformation will happen in football too. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just a matter of computing power and complexity of model.

Sunderland desperately need to find every advantage we can in order to maximise our potential. We might be able to outspend rivals in league one but we won’t be able to the further up we go. We absolutely should be using analytics in both scouting and team dynamics in order to find an edge. Clubs who refuse to innovate are destined to stagnate. Sadly, from what we’ve heard from the new regime and the current manager, there doesn’t seem to be much understanding of this at Safc at the moment. It will ultimately erode all the hard work and successes they’ve had to date - as hard work, plucky attitude and a back-to-roots mentality inevitably run out of momentum.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure that Basketball is analogous. Most games have limited scoring opportunities - in basketball, there can, literally, be 100 scores in a game (quite often). What xg can do, is identify the anomalies, but, what it's being used for by the betting types is actively ignoring the anomalies. It's in identifying anomalous actions and eradicating / replicating them that there is value in xg - not in predicting outcomes.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top