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Fourth favourites for relegation


fredthefan said:
Ok I know we have the extra European games to deal with and apparently our XG says we shouldn’t have finished where we did but surely it’s a bit harsh to have us fourth favourites (only above the promoted teams) for relegation.

I’m sure Ghisolfi and the Board will have plans in place to cope.
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Hopefully we’ll make those that bet against us look like idiots at the end of the season
 
fredthefan said:
Ok I know we have the extra European games to deal with and apparently our XG says we shouldn’t have finished where we did but surely it’s a bit harsh to have us fourth favourites (only above the promoted teams) for relegation.

I’m sure Ghisolfi and the Board will have plans in place to cope.
Click to expand...
If Xhaka were to sustain a serious injury that kept him out most of season ( he is going to the toughest competition in world football in 2 weeks time ) I have no doubt 4 th favourites for the drop would be optimistic
We look awful without him
 
fredthefan said:
Ok I know we have the extra European games to deal with and apparently our XG says we shouldn’t have finished where we did but surely it’s a bit harsh to have us fourth favourites (only above the promoted teams) for relegation.

I’m sure Ghisolfi and the Board will have plans in place to cope.
Click to expand...

The people who make these predictions, presumably do so on the basis that they have no information about what’s in the minds and plans of those at the club responsible for recruitment. I presume also that they’ll have their own opinions and ideas about other longer established premier league clubs and how they compare with us. They only have one season’s performance to go on. It’s probably why they always have the newly promoted clubs as favourites for relegation. They have nothing to compare them with - except the championship clubs they played last season, they also have no idea about who or how they’ll recruit etc etc

If, of course, it’s a computer or AI doing the predicting then the same criteria applies except for the opinion bit - which is also influenced by personal judgements including pre-judgement (aka prejudice).

I have no understand of what xg is, apart from hearing it mentioned or seeing it in posts on here. I have no desire to find out.

In conclusion: who gives a shit. What will be, will be.
 
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Quite a few made decent money on us finishing top half of the league this season and I dare say there’ll be more to be made next season with a similar bet.

You can hear the same pundits now “second season syndrome, Europe to contend with, they won’t be a surprise package” etc etc etc.

We’ve proved them wrong two seasons in a row now and we’ll do it again.
 
As much as it DOES rankle with me, I am trying to just dismiss it.
Because….I know for a fact that the club have had a “what if we qualify for Europe?” Plan on the go for a couple of months and will already have irons in the fire to move the club on and have a plan to combat the extra workload that European Qualification (I love typing that!) brings.
We can only have faith in KLD and Ghisolfi and the rest of the backroom staff.

I’m just f***ing LOVING being a Lads fan right now.
How could I not???
 
contrarian said:
If Xhaka were to sustain a serious injury that kept him out most of season ( he is going to the toughest competition in world football in 2 weeks time ) I have no doubt 4 th favourites for the drop would be optimistic
We look awful without him
Click to expand...
Jesus Christ man, hadn't even contemplated that ffs
 
fredthefan said:
Ok I know we have the extra European games to deal with and apparently our XG says we shouldn’t have finished where we did but surely it’s a bit harsh to have us fourth favourites (only above the promoted teams) for relegation.

I’m sure Ghisolfi and the Board will have plans in place to cope.
Click to expand...
It's came up a few times this, they've brought the odds in because of either bets have been lumped on or that they know they will giving the struggles that teams have when in Europe. If they priced it low odds then people would lap that up
 
contrarian said:
If Xhaka were to sustain a serious injury that kept him out most of season ( he is going to the toughest competition in world football in 2 weeks time ) I have no doubt 4 th favourites for the drop would be optimistic
We look awful without him
Click to expand...
Our midfield have had a season's worth of PL experience under their belts now and we haven't entered the transfer market yet. I would think that plans are afoot to look at this area as our recruitment are on the ball. Sadiki isn't the answer as cover for Xhaka although he is as great player. This area is where we might spend a bit of cash.
 
Tbh it’s not that outrageous, as we will probably end up playing at least 10-12 Europa games, potentially even more.

6th to 14th this year was tight as anything, and then there are mitigating factors for the teams who came 15th to 17th. Both Palace and Forest had lengthy European campaigns, and Spurs had a catastrophic season, and surely won’t be as bad with a full year of a new manager, and no Europe.

For what it’s worth, I reckon we’ll go deep in Europe, be safe, but end up 13th or something like that, which would be an excellent season.
 
BiG said:
The people who make these predictions, presumably do so on the basis that they have no information about what’s in the minds and plans of those at the club responsible for recruitment.
Click to expand...

Obviously every club will be planning to buy mint players and not get relegated mind.

We did it better than anyone but whether it is genuine excellence or lightning in a bottle is yet to be proven. I can fully understand why we're a realistic candidate i don't think it's unreasonable at all, but i do look forward to hopefully watching "thank you for writing us off mk2" this time nezt year 😎😎
Cockney Mackem said:
If only there was some precedent that would make the bookies wary of writing off our chances before we do our transfer business
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Id rather be an underblackcat than an overdog or whatever the alternative is
 
I’ve made a few threads on the betting forum about matches this season where the away team is favourite to win a match at the SoL. Chelsea were favourites, which I thought was wrong. Bizarrely, Tottenham were. Think we were favourites about 3/4 times in 38 matches.

Happy for them to keep underestimating us.

BiG said:
The people who make these predictions, presumably do so on the basis that they have no information about what’s in the minds and plans of those at the club responsible for recruitment. I presume also that they’ll have their own opinions and ideas about other longer established premier league clubs and how they compare with us. They only have one season’s performance to go on. It’s probably why they always have the newly promoted clubs as favourites for relegation. They have nothing to compare them with - except the championship clubs they played last season, they also have no idea about who or how they’ll recruit etc etc

If, of course, it’s a computer or AI doing the predicting then the same criteria applies except for the opinion bit - which is also influenced by personal judgements including pre-judgement (aka prejudice).

I have no understand of what xg is, apart from hearing it mentioned or seeing it in posts on here. I have no desire to find out.

In conclusion: who gives a shit. What will be, will be.
Click to expand...
Suppose it’s about not creating a huge liability for themselves right now. Assume we’ll go out & have a similar transfer window to the last one & it could come back to bite them badly. Even if we do sign decent players, I doubt they’ll assume we’ll be strong, unless they’re proper “statement signings”, which I’m guessing won’t be the case.
 
I can see where it comes from with the extra Europa games, tighter controls on spending, spurs, forest likely to improve, low performance on xg. Happy to go under the radar again.
 
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