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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

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FoldingStars said:
Macron seems to have been played every time he's had a conversation/meeting with Putin. Don't think it would be any different with any leader from Europe though, can't see many people changing his mind when he clearly thinks he knows right 100% of the time.

Only way I see this ending is regime change in Russia and we just have to hope it's not a Putin MK2.
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The west needs to keep some communication channels open, I'm guessing Macron is that, the German lads a rookie, Biden won't negotiate, that f***ing idiot in Downing Street would only make matters worse. So Macron is speaking for the EU/NATO
 
Dobblemackem said:
The man is in his 70’s he cares about Russia, he seems to have the ideology of rebuilding the USSR, he’s already been quoted as saying a world without Russia doesn’t exist. He’s also threatened nukes.

If the same man is backed into a corner he can’t get out of, there’s absolutely 0 guarantee he won’t think fuck it, and go nuclear. In fact if anything, it’s probably about as likely he won’t that he will.

If NATO or the West gets involved, personally I think he’s very likely to go nuclear.
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I agree with almost all of that but still not sure what people mean by get involved.

Would you want NATO to get involved if he goes into the Baltic’s?

If he goes into Poland?

The arguments for not getting involved are very convincing but are the same at any stage. So unless you are willing to appease Putin with whatever he wants they soon hit trouble
The Great Soprendo said:
It wouldn't hesitate to...no way would it tolerate Russian missiles or tanks crossing into Poland. Avoiding that going nuclear would still be the aim however.

It would be a greyer area if he went for Moldova or one of the other non-NATO countries however. Would we tolerate that? My guess is we would defend EU members but others would be treated like Ukraine.

But Sweden and a maybe Finland would probably cope on their own IMO.
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My guess is even if he went into the Baltic’s then NATO would take a proportionate measured response.

Yes article 5 etc etc…

But if Russian back channels are briefing the West that Putin will pull the nuclear trigger it would be a mutual suicide pact to go all out defence and I’m not convinced the more rationale Western heads and Stolenberg would do that
 
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I wish I had the confidence that others do that this won't end up in nuclear war. I completely get the argument that no one wins, and that Putin can't achieve his objectives if it goes nuclear. But, if we accept that, why is he trying to provoke nato? He seems to want to bring them into it. I mean, aye, it strengthens the bullshit argument he's making to his people about nato being a threat to Russia, but they can't even take Ukraine so, in terms of conventional warfare, its absolutely obvious that nato countries would destroy his forces if they had to get involved. So why does he want that? If I was him I'd be desperately hoping nato didn't get involved. If they do, then what does he do, sit back and accept defeat? People talk about "don't poke the bear" but surely nato are the bear, if they get involved he's fucked and he's constantly poking it. So what's his aim there if he isn't prepared to go nuclear?
 
Az* said:
Those who know him personally are convinced he will do absolutely anything to survive. It’s about survival for him now.

I’m not sure he’d start lobbing nukes at NY or London but how can you ever be sure? He’s killed thousands of his own people. The apartment bombing were him. If he can do that to his own then you can’t rule anything out.
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What is the process for Russia to launch nuclear warheads? By that I mean I don't think it is simply Putin sat there by himself waiting to press a big red button. Is there a chain of command that must be followed before the dreaded act can be put into action? Do multiple overloads need to be in agreement before the button is pressed?
 
UpTheDuff said:
Orban helping out his mate.

The prime ministers of the Visegrad Four countries - Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - will meet in London on Tuesday to discuss the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, said on Monday in a Facebook video.

Orbán also reiterated that the government of Hungary has published a decree which makes it clear that no weapons shipments can go to Ukraine from Hungarian territory.
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Why London?
SAFC Wilks said:
Why has Putin and Macron been in regular phone conversations? Are they best buds or something?
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The cynic in me says it’s got a lot todo with macron seeking reelection In April
 
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MonkeyLove said:
I agree with almost all of that but still not sure what people mean by get involved.

Would you want NATO to get involved if he goes into the Baltic’s?

If he goes into Poland?

The arguments for not getting involved are very convincing but are the same at any stage. So unless you are willing to appease Putin with whatever he wants they soon hit trouble


My guess is even if he went into the Baltic’s then NATO would take a proportionate measured response.

Yes article 5 etc etc…

But if Russian back channels are briefing the West that Putin will pull the nuclear trigger it would be a mutual suicide pact to go all out defence and I’m not convinced the more rationale Western heads and Stolenberg would do that
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I'm absolutely convinced we'd kick the Russians out of the Baltics comprehensively if they dared, I also think we'd put a defence force in non NATO Finland if the Russians had a build up of forces on the border.

The Baltics is a cast iron yes, it's an easy winnable operation for NATO and if you sacrifice the small Baltic countries for peace at any cost then NATO is finished.

Putin knows he can't fuck with the Baltics and would only do it to escalate nuclear war and if he wanted nuclear war then he'll get it anyway. Ukraine is different as we're not obligated to defend it so he knew very probably can attack it.
 
Guinness Guzzler said:
I wish I had the confidence that others do that this won't end up in nuclear war. I completely get the argument that no one wins, and that Putin can't achieve his objectives if it goes nuclear. But, if we accept that, why is he trying to provoke nato? He seems to want to bring them into it. I mean, aye, it strengthens the bullshit argument he's making to his people about nato being a threat to Russia, but they can't even take Ukraine so, in terms of conventional warfare, its absolutely obvious that nato countries would destroy his forces if they had to get involved. So why does he want that? If I was him I'd be desperately hoping nato didn't get involved. If they do, then what does he do, sit back and accept defeat? People talk about "don't poke the bear" but surely nato are the bear, if they get involved he's fucked and he's constantly poking it. So what's his aim there if he isn't prepared to go nuclear?
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IMO, he doesn't want NATO involved as he knows in a conventional war he'd get his arse kicked. That is why he is threatening nuclear war in the hope NATO thinks he's mad enough to resort to it (maybe he is).
 
Another new video of fuel truck losses.

The other big challenge that the Russians apparently might soon face is ammo. A lot has been made of fuel and food but so far we haven’t seen intensive urban fighting.

Mainly shelling, rural ambushes, and some close quarters stuff in the suburbs. But nothing like the intensity they will face in Kiyv, Kharkiv, Odessa. Big question is can they supply their front with enough. If they exhaust it apparently there is a big risk of not just failing but also being hit with a counter offensive as they have to retreat without ability to fight back

You must be logged on to see media items
 
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WHD said:
IMO, he doesn't want NATO involved as he knows in a conventional war he'd get his arse kicked. That is why he is threatening nuclear war in the hope NATO thinks he's mad enough to resort to it (maybe he is).
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Hope that's the case. Just when you see photos of stuff nato seem to have donated (the old laptops and stuff) and Russian accounts seem to be saying "we told you they were working with the nazis in Ukraine", it's almost as if they want an excuse to attack nato. And things like risking damage at power plants, not letting people flee unless they go to Russia or Belarus, blatantly attacking when there's a high likelihood of civilian casualties. Maybe he's just getting desperate because they're not making progress, but it seems like it's constantly just trying to get nato to say "we've got to step things up" whether that be boots on the ground (unlikely from a defensive alliance) or a no fly zone. You'd hope he's not mental enough to want nuclear war mind, but the more he pushes the western world the more likely it is that he gets his arse handed to him
 
DJP said:
What is the process for Russia to launch nuclear warheads? By that I mean I don't think it is simply Putin sat there by himself waiting to press a big red button. Is there a chain of command that must be followed before the dreaded act can be put into action? Do multiple overloads need to be in agreement before the button is pressed?
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I’ve no idea mate. That’s why I couldn’t say for sure what would happen.

Iirc in the 80’s the system supposedly detected a launch against USSR(9 sites) and an engineer cancelled the process as he assumed if the USA launched it wouldn’t be just 9 sites. Not sure how true this is but it would suggest others can intervene.

Didn’t a Russian sub go to launch during the Cuban crisis but political superior onboard interviewed and stopped it? That was because they lost radio contact iirc. Again not sure how true these stories are but it suggests, again, others can intervene.

Surely a system like that can’t be left in the hands of just one man. Not even in Russia(I hope).
 
The Great Soprendo said:
It wouldn't hesitate to...no way would it tolerate Russian missiles or tanks crossing into Poland. Avoiding that going nuclear would still be the aim however.

It would be a greyer area if he went for Moldova or one of the other non-NATO countries however. Would we tolerate that? My guess is we would defend EU members but others would be treated like Ukraine.

But Sweden and a maybe Finland would probably cope on their own IMO.
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Interesting to see what those countries do next when this is all over. The likes of Moldova, Belarus, Finland, Georgia etc. That whole band of countries separating NATO from Russia will be clamouring to pledge alliances either east or west. Biden has already reiterated that NATO is an open door to new joiners.

Putin has made it crystal that trying to maintain neutrality under sovereign rights is an absolutely guaranteed good hiding.
 
SR7 said:
Getting their arses handed to them and fearing the worst, looking for an off ramp.
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Very tricky situation mind because I think we need to give them an off ramp to try and stop the senseless killings, but equally they can't be allowed to storm in, commit war crimes, and be rewarded with land or by a sovereign country being forced to declare neutrality. Fuck knows what kind of an off ramp I'd like to see him get (other than one off a cliff) but if we don't give them an off ramp of any sort then it's really calling their bluff, hoping it doesn't lead to WW3 whilst accepting loads more will die in Ukraine. Glad I'm not a diplomat in times like this, there's not a good solution
 
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