Suomifinland
Central Defender
You’re thinking about it wrong.
Russian nuclear weapons are proving to be a deterrent as the West won’t get directly involved.
Having jumped first Russia has pole position. They had arguably nothing to fear as Ukraine is denuclearised and there a no binding agreement of support for Ukraine.
Wonder what would have happened had say Poland taken exception to Belarus & invaded it. Trashed Minsk etc.
Would Russia have countered even though it meant direct Nato contact?