Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

[SYB_DC]

But if we sit and watch Putin dismember Ukraine - who will be next ?

Finland , Sweden ?
Romania , Slovakia ?

Probably mischief & misinformation in former Yugoslavia ( already begun ) - so the stakes are already sky high...

We up the ante by threatening lethal surgical strikes to take our his heavy armour around the cities - may make him think twice . Of course hed fight back but we outnumber him on aircraft 2 to 1

Also the threat of action RE war crimes is 2-fold - he saw what happened to Milosevic and Karadic

He'd need to think a 3rd time about launching nukes - as that would be suicide on his country's part

I'm sure all these options are currently under discussion. .

Anything NATO or EU is a very different story than anything not.

 

[AB22 Easy Tiger]

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[Deleted member 6694]

Who was it who posted that YouTube link to why Russia is invading Ukraine? Whoever it was, that’s a cracking watch….who knew, oil and gas eh. Ukraine a bit naughty with the Crimean water supply like.

It was @Lonz who posted it originally and it's been posted a couple of times as I shared it so it wouldn't be missed. It's certainly something I knew a lot about and I found it a very interesting watch indeed.

The canal was captured by the Russians on the first day of the invasion and blew up the dam Saturday and water flowed for the 1st time in nearly 8 years.

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[coyneeee_s]

So there's been a massive convoy on the loose heading to Kyiv, last night it was "only" 3 miles long, this evening it expanded to 17 miles long, it's now been pictured at 40 miles long.

40 miles of tanks, APC's and mobile ammunition depots. Have they learned a harsh lesson from Kharkiv and thought let's just flatten the place instead, because it looks like it.

This might actually be the big one. They're approximately 15 miles outside Kyiv

 

[Kevsgreat]

So there's been a massive convoy on the loose heading to Kyiv, last night it was "only" 3 miles long, this evening it expanded to 17 miles long, it's now been pictured at 40 miles long.

40 miles of tanks, APC's and mobile ammunition depots. Have they learned a harsh lesson from Kharkiv and thought let's just flatten the place instead, because it looks like it.

This might actually be the big one. They're approximately 15 miles outside Kyiv

If they wanted to flatten the place they could do what they're doing in Kharkiv and launch rockets in. Is it more a show of strength to force a surrender? "We've got all this, you've got no chance"?

 

[Slim999]

So there's been a massive convoy on the loose heading to Kyiv, last night it was "only" 3 miles long, this evening it expanded to 17 miles long, it's now been pictured at 40 miles long.

40 miles of tanks, APC's and mobile ammunition depots. Have they learned a harsh lesson from Kharkiv and thought let's just flatten the place instead, because it looks like it.

This might actually be the big one. They're approximately 15 miles outside Kyiv

40 miles of tanks is fine - but if you want to take the city witjout completely destroying it you need street by street combat .
A tank is a sitting duck in the street with missiles aimed from buildings

whatever happens now to Kiev it's clear that if the Russians persist with it they are going to lose 20k - maybe 50k soldiers over the long term

That isn't goung to go down well at home coinciding with a crushing recession caused by the utter collapse of their currency and banking system

This is why the Grozny type scenario is likely ( stay outside the city and raze it to the ground )

NATO need to lay down sone thick red lines RE War Crimes sharpish - and get a few thousand aircraft close to the vicinity

If Putin sees that he may back down . His worst nightmare would be to chased back to Russia by NATO forces

 

[Deleted member 6694]

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Saw that recently and these also

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[chunkyshanhawk53]

If they wanted to flatten the place they could do what they're doing in Kharkiv and launch rockets in. Is it more a show of strength to force a surrender? "We've got all this, you've got no chance"?

They don’t want to flatten anywhere, they want to control. In an ideal world they would have rolled in without dissent. Similar to the US in Baghdad (broadly), and then sought to establish control (like the US didn’t)

 

[Slim999]

They don’t want to flatten anywhere, they want to control. In an ideal world they would have rolled in without dissent. Similar to the US in Baghdad (broadly), and then sought to establish control (like the US didn’t)

I don't buy this line parroted by Johnson that Putin expected garlands and flowers into the tank guns fron excited Ukrainians

Aren't they the masters of (mis) information

... Maybe that's it - they misinformed themselves

I must say as this progresses the Russians are looking f***ing inept , poorly trained with crap planning & logistics . They've only moved 50 miles from the black sea as they're running out of fuel ffs

The Ukrainians look well trained & battle hardened (.received a lot of training from British army recently )

If there was ever a ground war NATO woukd crucify them imo

 

[chunkyshanhawk53]

I don't buy this line parroted by Johnson that Putin expected garlands and flowers into the tank guns fron excited Ukrainians

Aren't they the masters of (mis) information

... Maybe that's it - they misinformed themselves

I must say as this progresses the Russians are looking f***ing inept , poorly trained with crap planning & logistics . They've only moved 50 miles from the black sea as they're running out of fuel ffs

The Ukrainians look well trained & battle hardened (.received a lot of training from British army recently )

If there was ever a ground war NATO woukd crucify them imo

I think this is overly simplistic to be honest. Defensive positioning is easier than breaking down

See Afghanistan and Iraq for starters. Against the might of the US

 

[coyneeee_s]

Looking like Kherson will fall pretty soon.
The Azov's are the last stand between linking up Crimea to the eastern separatist regions down south

It may actually give Putin a reason to back out and claim victory that they've extended their borders to Crimea regardless of what happens up north.

 

[elder]

40 miles of tanks is fine - but if you want to take the city witjout completely destroying it you need street by street combat .
A tank is a sitting duck in the street with missiles aimed from buildings

whatever happens now to Kiev it's clear that if the Russians persist with it they are going to lose 20k - maybe 50k soldiers over the long term

That isn't goung to go down well at home coinciding with a crushing recession caused by the utter collapse of their currency and banking system

This is why the Grozny type scenario is likely ( stay outside the city and raze it to the ground )

NATO need to lay down sone thick red lines RE War Crimes sharpish - and get a few thousand aircraft close to the vicinity

If Putin sees that he may back down . His worst nightmare would be to chased back to Russia by NATO forces

although the 70 aircraft promised from other european countries is excellent news they're all Mig-29's iirc, which are primarily an air to air fighter and don't have sophisticated air to ground capability. they can carry conventional bombs but without guidance (happy to be corrected on that)

really need some air to ground capability (like the turkish drones used in the south). hopefully it's already there and we're just not been told about it. there is a US tanker over Romania right now

plenty of globemasters heading to poland as well so again hopefully plenty or anti aircraft or anti tank missiles on their way.

 

[Lord Potts]

I am not a battlefield tactician but isn't a military convoy 47kms long a strange military formation. It looks almost bumper to bumper very vulnerable to attack. Wouldn't the vehicles be dispersed in the countryside around a city that they were going to attack? Who the heck would enter an urban area at one point in a long procession its not a parade. Maybe I am missing something here.

On another note although the video of Russian prisioners is suspect it has some credibility. When the Red Army went in to Prague in 1968 tank crews who were confronted by Czech crowds also had no idea why they had been sent there and were unsure what they should be doing. Maybe the Ukranians are playing on the memory of that but it I was the case back then that Eastern block troops didn't appear to be told very much

 

[Deleted member 6694]

Looking like Kherson will fall pretty soon.
The Azov's are the last stand between linking up Crimea to the eastern separatist regions down south

It may actually give Putin a reason to back out and claim victory that they've extended their borders to Crimea regardless of what happens up north.

I think Putin is possibly wanting to land lock Ukraine and Odessa will be another target. Therefore he will get even more of the Black Sea economic sea zone which means more of that supposed oil & gas reserve in those waters will be his to claim. Looking out of interest of about this zone, I just found this using Google which goes into quite some detail about the area.

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[elder]

I am not a battlefield tactician but isn't a military convoy 47kms long a strange military formation. It looks almost bumper to bumper very vulnerable to attack. Wouldn't the vehicles be dispersed in the countryside around a city that they were going to attack? Who the heck would enter an urban area at one point in a long procession its not a parade. Maybe I am missing something here.

On another note although the video of Russian prisioners is suspect it has some credibility. When the Red Army went in to Prague in 1968 tank crews who were confronted by Czech crowds also had no idea why they had been sent there and were unsure what they should be doing. Maybe the Ukranians are playing on the memory of that but it I was the case back then that Eastern block troops didn't appear to be told very much

it is what it is when you only have one way in (roads). the ground is too soft apparently with the thaw but also it's the quickest way in. it's not the desert or the open plains of the steppes.

I remember the massive exercises we had in germany in the 80s and we had similar, massive lines of slow moving or stationary wagons on roads heading to their battle positions and thinking if that was a real war just one airstrike (or from something like a tactical nuclear weapon) would wipe us all out.

 

[Slim999]

it is what it is when you only have one way in (roads). the ground is too soft apparently with the thaw but also it's the quickest way in. it's not the desert or the open plains of the steppes.

I remember the massive exercises we had in germany in the 80s and we had similar, massive lines of slow moving or stationary wagons on roads heading to their battle positions and thinking if that was a real war just one airstrike (or from something like a tactical nuclear weapon) would wipe us all out.

" If that was a real war just one airstrike (or from something like a tactical nuclear weapon) would wipe us all out."

lightbulb moment

 

[Deleted member 6694]

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[elder]

" If that was a real war just one airstrike (or from something like a tactical nuclear weapon) would wipe us all out."

lightbulb moment

in football terms it's like a load of coaches on the way home after a wembley final defeat, during rush hour, on a friday, of a long weekend, in the rain, with roadworks on the M25 & M1.

 

[safcforever]

But if we sit and watch Putin dismember Ukraine - who will be next ?

Finland , Sweden ?
Romania , Slovakia ?

Probably mischief & misinformation in former Yugoslavia ( already begun ) - so the stakes are already sky high...

We up the ante by threatening lethal surgical strikes to take our his heavy armour around the cities - may make him think twice . Of course hed fight back but we outnumber him on aircraft 2 to 1

Also the threat of action RE war crimes is 2-fold - he saw what happened to Milosevic and Karadic

He'd need to think a 3rd time about launching nukes - as that would be suicide on his country's part

I'm sure all these options are currently under discussion. .
they've started moving into position

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Precisely

NATO outguns Russia 5 to 1 of aircraft
And 3 to 1 on sea power

I think it's time to chase the bear back into the woods

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Almost certainly Moldova. Needs them to narrow the access to the east

 

[Deleted member 6694]

I've just seen this tweet and it looks like they're soon going to join Crimea to the Donbass region by getting Mariupol. This will as the tweet says form a land bridge to Odessa.

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This was supposed earlier today in Mariupol and someone geolocated it in another tweet. Imagine seeing and hearing that from your window!

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