Can sanction and talk until the cows come home, but as long as Russia controls the gas supply, the western world will do fuck all
There's no appetite for military action and sanctions are far short of what they could have been, and this is less than 24 hours after Putin's main move.
As Europe's energy crisis deepens, the splits in 'the West' are at risk of deepening. The EU will be even less enthusiastic about sanctions as time wears on.
By obstructing gas supply to Europe from Russia, the US might get a larger market to continue giving us LNG gas, so you can see a clear benefit for them.
As you would expect, Britain has embarrassed itself at every turn. Truss completely embarrassed by Lavrov, Johnson rushing to the USA's side for the right to get fucked over by their overpriced energy supplies, loudly sabre rattling at Russia to the point where even Ukraine told us to tone it down, talking tough despite being an utter irrelevance, and then only being able to sanction about 3 people because we've spent decades making our economy overly dependent on London, which is awash with dirty money, much of it Russian and apparently circling around our politicians. Just an absolute joke of a country.
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The oil market will find it impossible to replace Russia’s oil, which accounts for 10 percent of global supply, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director for natural resources and commodities at Fitch, told
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on Tuesday.
The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis could send oil prices to above $100 per barrel, according to Fitch’s expert.
Early on Tuesday, oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel, with
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hitting a new seven-year high of $99 before easing to $97 per barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized late on Monday two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and deployed troops there in the most serious escalation of the crisis yet.
A further escalation of the conflict could lead to sanctions that would restrict Russian oil exports, which “could lead to an energy crisis,” Kommersant daily quoted Marinchenko as saying.
Currently, the geopolitical premium in the price of oil is already around $15 per barrel due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Marinchenko told Russian news agency .
Russia’s share of the global oil market is over 10 percent, and there is no one that can replace it, there is little spare production capacity—especially considering the gradual recovery in demand—even if sanctions on Iran are lifted in the near future, TASS quoted Marinchenko as saying.
Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, exports around (bpd). Nearly half of it, or 48 percent, went to European countries in 2020, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2021, of natural gas and petroleum oils to the EU.
A plunge in Russian oil exports to Europe would be a very bullish factor for oil prices, which in case of a conflict in Ukraine, analysts say.
Also today, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi that replacing Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe in the short term is “almost impossible.”