Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

[MonkeyLove]

I don't think this is a big triumph for Putin. If he had got around the table with Biden and agreed that he would withdraw his troops from Ukraine, in return for which he could recognise the 2 breakaway republics he could have got a deal without sanctions

As it is he has marched his troops to the brink of war and then backed down with a meagre prize to show for it

Add to that the weird rambling speech he made last night I think he comes out of this weaker.

There will be a new strong man looking at that performance and thinking that his time has come

No one knows what prize he has taken yet as no one knows how it’s going to play out. This has moved ridiculously quickly. All orchestrated but a few days ago Russia were denying there was going to be any further action in Ukraine. The day before their UN ambassador said the Donbas is Ukraine territory…

We are at an early stage. This could end now with little more then a frozen conflict. Or it could be Putin will keep going finding false flag and justification on the way to drag Ukraine into a bigger conflict for the country. Experts are suggesting the latter.

A lot of what happens next depends on what Russia have actually recognised. If it’s just the small proportion of the Donbas the separatists currently occupy then we could at least in the short term see a frozen conflict.

If it’s the whole Donbas then in Russia’s world Ukrainian troops are now occupiers and the big question is will they defend it when the Russians progress.

But the analyst view seems to be that Putin hasn’t spent a fortune putting 150k troops on the border and cost himself a fortune in sanctions just to stop here. It would make no sense

 

[Scotty]

Of course it's shrouded in secrecy but by accounts of the 'Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation' Washington DC a small number of bombs are reportedly kept under U.S. Air Force guard at six airbases in five European countries, ready to be delivered by respective national fighter planes - if Ukraine were allowed their aspirations to join NATO then it's entirely possible that they too would be involved in such a setup, that won't be allowed to happen of course;

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Apart from these small separatist regions all Putin wants is a guarantee that Ukraine won't be allowed in NATO and I do think he'll get his assurance albeit through a back channel. I personally think Biden gave the game away when he alluded to the fact that 'small incursions' may well be allowed..

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you'll note that i specifically said 'missiles' - afterall you referenced the 'cuban missile crisis', not the 'cuban bomb crisis'

it not a secret that there are US nuclear bombs stationed in various US bases or depots within Europe - this has'nt been a secret since the 80's so i'm not seeing how Putin can even think about using that as a reason

 

[bahtat]

No one knows what prize he has taken yet as no one knows how it’s going to play out. This has moved ridiculously quickly. All orchestrated but a few days ago Russia were denying there was going to be any further action in Ukraine. The day before their UN ambassador said the Donbas is Ukraine territory…

We are at an early stage. This could end now with little more then a frozen conflict. Or it could be Putin will keep going finding false flag and justification on the way to drag Ukraine into a bigger conflict for the country. Experts are suggesting the latter.

A lot of what happens next depends on what Russia have actually recognised. If it’s just the small proportion of the Donbas the separatists currently occupy then we could at least in the short term see a frozen conflict.

If it’s the whole Donbas then in Russia’s world Ukrainian troops are now occupiers and the big question is will they defend it when the Russians progress.

But the analyst view seems to be that Putin hasn’t spent a fortune putting 150k troops on the border and cost himself a fortune in sanctions just to stop here. It would make no sense

Put far better than my attempt to make same point, I can’t see him not attempting to take over the whole of dombas

 

[Baloo]

If he was still alive my father would vermently disagree having as a reservist received a telegram calling him up on day war was declared and being shipped off to France the following day

Obviously it wasn’t the mass casualties that Britain experienced from 1940 onwards, but the RAF was conducting raids and taking losses from the day after war was declared.

 

[PTR]

Mad idea, but as a sanction, would it be possible to track all Russian assets in the UK and simply cease them, and deport all Russian nationals?
Seems like loads of very expensive property is owned by rich Russians - it would hurt just the right people.

 

[Dinsdale]

I don't think this is a big triumph for Putin. If he had got around the table with Biden and agreed that he would withdraw his troops from Ukraine, in return for which he could recognise the 2 breakaway republics he could have got a deal without sanctions

As it is he has marched his troops to the brink of war and then backed down with a meagre prize to show for it

Add to that the weird rambling speech he made last night I think he comes out of this weaker.

There will be a new strong man looking at that performance and thinking that his time has come

I was reading the other day he lost a lot of support over the Crimea situation previously in Russia as the vast majority don't want anything to do with Putins vanity war. I think the dallying we've seen by Putin is him trying to maintain his macho but kind Uncle Vlad persona and balancing out his borderline megalomania. Sadly I don't think he can help himself and is about to start a pointless war which will have no winners. I reckon the knives will be out for him shortly as he won't voluntarily go.

 

[smoker]

"Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing. He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means which he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject.” John Stuart Milne

We've bottled this problem for too long.

 

[Shambo]

Kick Russian diplomats out, stop Russian investment into London, reduce energy purchasing from Russia, vow to halt all Russian funding of our government

 

[bahtat]

Mad idea, but as a sanction, would it be possible to track all Russian assets in the UK and simply cease them, and deport all Russian nationals?
Seems like loads of very expensive property is owned by rich Russians - it would hurt just the right people.

I think that’s the sort of action most expect to be announced, its the extent of it that is the unknown and whatever he does it won’t be enough for some

 

[Scotty]

I know we won in the end but, all we did was declare war on paper at the start. It was actually labeled a phoney war for the first few months because we just sat and watched

no, the ground 'campaign' in Western Europe was labeled the Phoney War

there was plenty of stuff going on (at sea mainly) before panzers started rolling west

 

[MonkeyLove]

I was reading the other day he lost a lot of support over the Crimea situation previously in Russia as the vast majority don't want anything to do with Putins vanity war. I think the dallying we've seen by Putin is him trying to maintain his macho but kind Uncle Vlad persona and balancing out his borderline megalomania. Sadly I don't think he can help himself and is about to start a pointless war which will have no winners. I reckon the knives will be out for him shortly as he won't voluntarily go.

Some expert was saying yesterday that there is unlikely to be wide scale pushback from the Russian population. Such is the way Putin has structures to crush dissent.

But he would be at risk if the 40 or so oligarchs who have massive power in Russia start to really get hit in the pocket. It seems targeting the oligarchs and them cutting off support for him is the West’s best leverage

 

[Scotty]

But it’s only 2 Ukrainian cities that Putin has entered isn’t it? Unless he keeps moving further into Ukraine?

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[smoker]

I was reading the other day he lost a lot of support over the Crimea situation previously in Russia as the vast majority don't want anything to do with Putins vanity war. I think the dallying we've seen by Putin is him trying to maintain his macho but kind Uncle Vlad persona and balancing out his borderline megalomania. Sadly I don't think he can help himself and is about to start a pointless war which will have no winners. I reckon the knives will be out for him shortly as he won't voluntarily go.

He's never been more popular at home because other countries keep backing down in face of his brinkmanship.

It’s the other way round. Turkey supported Azerbaijan and provided them with TB2 drones which fundamentally won them the war.

Russia and Armenia are allies in the CSTO. It was Putin who stopped Azerbaijan going further and brokered a peace deal.

Armenia has the same relationship with Russia as Belarus, Kazakhstan etc.. but isn’t as important

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Putin allowed Armenia to take a kicking because they had a populist, pro-western government after their stooge was ejected in the peaceful 2018 revolution (similar to the situation in Ukraine). The Azerbaijanis and Turkey wouldn't have been so bold if Moscow's puppet was still in charge.

 

[SAFC Wilks]

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Aww that’s a sad poem.

 

[bahtat]

I was reading the other day he lost a lot of support over the Crimea situation previously in Russia as the vast majority don't want anything to do with Putins vanity war. I think the dallying we've seen by Putin is him trying to maintain his macho but kind Uncle Vlad persona and balancing out his borderline megalomania. Sadly I don't think he can help himself and is about to start a pointless war which will have no winners. I reckon the knives will be out for him shortly as he won't voluntarily go.

Im no expert but I get the impression that Putins “popularity” is very generational, basically he’s suported by the older generations who pine after the old days of the USSR but liked far less by younger generations who want a western life style

 

[smoker]

But it’s only 2 Ukrainian cities that Putin has entered isn’t it? Unless he keeps moving further into Ukraine?

It was 'only Crimea' and, before that, 'only South Ossetia'. If you want to look for historical precedent, it was 'only the Sudetenland' but German troops quickly went on to Prague. You can't appease these people, the longer it goes on the more we will wonder why we didn't act sooner when it was a smaller problem.

 

[Dinsdale]

Im no expert but I get the impression that Putins “popularity” is very generational, basically he’s suported by the older generations who pine after the old days of the USSR but liked far less by younger generations who want a western life style

It will be all pretty much manipulated anyway, but last time his popularity spiked was the Crimea crisis and has been in steady decline. Anyone who remembers the USSR must be approaching their 50's by now, and most of them dropping off.

 

[Wild Card]

Could be a good excuse to start Fracking in the UK

agreed, I don't particularly like fracking mind but would support a government fracking programme (not private) where the profits are ploughed into green tech in order to wean us off the tits of the the dictatorships, who hold most of the gas and oil.

We could sell the excess to the EU in order to give them a new market while they invest in green. The sooner the world doesn't need these oil/gas producing countries the better. it takes away there leverage over us.

 

[MonkeyLove]

It was 'only Crimea' and, before that, 'only South Ossetia'. If you want to look for historical precedent, it was 'only the Sudetenland' but German troops quickly went on to Prague. You can't appease these people, the longer it goes on the more we will wonder why we didn't act sooner when it was a smaller problem.

Yep. There’s people on here talking prematurely like this is his end game in taking the Donbas.

He has just spent an absolute fortune building a massive invading army on the borders of Ukraine. Is about to be whacked with more sanctions and has given up the potential of a separatist veto on NATO membership.

He hasn’t done all of that to stop at the Donbas. His speech yesterday made it very clear what his views are

 

[Joe Baker]

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Great speech by Kenya at the UN. Completely blows apart Russia's stance on Ukraine