I was wrong in being fairly convinced there would be no invasion of Ukraine. Now, it is very much looking like that assumption was an incorrect one.
An invasion would be crazy.
I think that the support of the Russian people for Putin is very fragile. If the main Russian cities are hit by mass anti-war disorder, a nationwide rebellion will start quickly. In other words, revolution.
The question is: where will it start?
Late this afternoon, the BBC reported: "Western officials say there is evidence of “very serious doubts” among senior Russian military and security officials about the wisdom of attacking Ukraine."
Not a good sign for Putin, if true, with armed forces in the rear that may not be so reliable.