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Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

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I don't think Russia have any intention of invading.

This is all about establishing a red line with NATO in Ukraine, and also gauging the potential response if he uses a destabilisation strategy against the Baltic states in future, ie: when would Britain, Europe and the US potentially consider putting troops in play? He has been engaging in a propaganda war in those places, and even as far south as Bulgaria to bring all former Soviet territory back into the fold, either with pro-Russian governments, or covert invasions as he did in Crimea.

There's no way he is firing shells into Ukraine. If he was ever doing anything, it wouldn't have been forewarned.

We've found the answer is not in Ukraine, which probably gives him carte blanche in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. That's what he wants, and Ukraine will be a longer play.
 
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KittenMittens said:
I don't think Russia have any intention of invading.

This is all about establishing a red line with NATO in Ukraine, and also gauging the potential response if he uses a destabilisation strategy against the Baltic states in future, ie: when would Britain, Europe and the US potentially consider putting troops in play? He has been engaging in a propaganda war in those places, and even as far south as Bulgaria to bring all former Soviet territory back into the fold, either with pro-Russian governments, or covert invasions as he did in Crimea.

There's no way he is firing shells into Ukraine. If he was ever doing anything, it wouldn't have been forewarned.

We've found the answer is not in Ukraine, which probably gives him carte blanche in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. That's what he wants, and Ukraine will be a longer play.
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Difference is though that Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Bulgaria are all already in NATO; any incursion into any of them and article V applies.

Turkey is the interesting one as if he can split them from the alliance then we’ve got problems in the eastern Med and Black Sea.
 
Hammy said:
Difference is though that Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Bulgaria are all already in NATO; any incursion into any of them and article V applies.

Turkey is the interesting one as if he can split them from the alliance then we’ve got problems in the eastern Med and Black Sea.
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Russia wouldn't invade Turkey. Erdoğan and Putin have some common ground, but most importantly it'd be a logistical nightmare.

He's only interested in the former Soviet states, or what he thinks are historically Russian. If the Kazakhs and Kyrghits ever overthrew the pro Soviet governments, he'd invade in a flash.

Yeah should have been clearer - on the Baltic states he will continue the propaganda war until they vote for a pro Russian candidate. He'll then support them with troops not carrying any flag, he'll collude with them to restrict press freedom and eliminate opposition, and he'll not need to ever have a conventional war.

He has humiliated the west here, exposed the conceit that we can stop him if he ever did start invading places. Everyone now knows that is false. He will massively up his efforts to destabilise the region now and I'm not sure where we go from here as a defence strategy.
 
Withdraw some troops, make it look like they’re all about peace, engineer some false flag type incident as these troops are withdrawing, retaliate in self defence is my prediction.
 
KittenMittens said:
Russia wouldn't invade Turkey. Erdoğan and Putin have some common ground, but most importantly it'd be a logistical nightmare.

He's only interested in the former Soviet states, or what he thinks are historically Russian. If the Kazakhs and Kyrghits ever overthrew the pro Soviet governments, he'd invade in a flash.

Yeah should have been clearer - on the Baltic states he will continue the propaganda war until they vote for a pro Russian candidate. He'll then support them with troops not carrying any flag, he'll collude with them to restrict press freedom and eliminate opposition, and he'll not need to ever have a conventional war.

He has humiliated the west here, exposed the conceit that we can stop him if he ever did start invading places. Everyone now knows that is false. He will massively up his efforts to destabilise the region now and I'm not sure where we go from here as a defence strategy.
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I disagree. He doesn’t need to invade in order to split Turkey from NATO; he’s already started doing this by increased co-operation and arms sales to Erdogan.

By selling S-400 to the Turks he’s already succeeded in getting them out of the F35 programme, weakening links on our southern borders at a strategic point of interest for the Russians.
 
KittenMittens said:
I don't think Russia have any intention of invading.

This is all about establishing a red line with NATO in Ukraine, and also gauging the potential response if he uses a destabilisation strategy against the Baltic states in future, ie: when would Britain, Europe and the US potentially consider putting troops in play? He has been engaging in a propaganda war in those places, and even as far south as Bulgaria to bring all former Soviet territory back into the fold, either with pro-Russian governments, or covert invasions as he did in Crimea.

There's no way he is firing shells into Ukraine. If he was ever doing anything, it wouldn't have been forewarned.

We've found the answer is not in Ukraine, which probably gives him carte blanche in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. That's what he wants, and Ukraine will be a longer play.
Click to expand...

He won’t be going anywhere near any of those 3 Baltic states as they are already in NATO. Ukraine is completely different to him threatening any NATO member and if he had been building up forces on the borders of the Baltic’s the West’s reaction would have been very different.

If he went into a Baltic country it would only be as a massive stakes gamble that NATO wouldn’t defend them and he could get rid of it entirely. The entire principle of it is mutual defence so Putin could take a massive risk that they wouldn’t protect a small country and effectively make the whole concept pointless. But that would be a massive calculated risk.

I’m not sure what he would have to gain strategically in the Baltic’s anyway. They already have Kalingrad for positioning missiles closer to the West and it won’t give him better sea access. And with technology improving he doesn’t really need those anyway. They have missiles on their own territory that can hit pretty much anywhere.

Whatever Putins goal here time will tell if it’s been effective. He might get some diplomatic wins in the short term but as with just after Crimea it’s almost certain after this Ukraine will accelerate its military build up, get closer to the West and work more closely with others in the region. Which means if we are back here in 5 years it’s possible Ukraine will be even more able to defend itself
 
Hyltons finest said:
Can someone explain how the west have supposedly embarrassed themselves here please
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It's a bit of an odd claim. More like a case of a bully who backs off and says "Ha ha got you going. Fooled ya".

In reality it has brought Western Europe and NATO closer together and will probably result in bigger NATO presence in the Eastern NATO countries. It has also helped focus on what sanctions to apply if need be. If Putin has backed down then it's just a smokescreen for domestic consumption. Unless it is just a feint as someone said above.
 
KittenMittens said:
Russia wouldn't invade Turkey. Erdoğan and Putin have some common ground, but most importantly it'd be a logistical nightmare.

He's only interested in the former Soviet states, or what he thinks are historically Russian. If the Kazakhs and Kyrghits ever overthrew the pro Soviet governments, he'd invade in a flash.

Yeah should have been clearer - on the Baltic states he will continue the propaganda war until they vote for a pro Russian candidate. He'll then support them with troops not carrying any flag, he'll collude with them to restrict press freedom and eliminate opposition, and he'll not need to ever have a conventional war.

He has humiliated the west here, exposed the conceit that we can stop him if he ever did start invading places. Everyone now knows that is false. He will massively up his efforts to destabilise the region now and I'm not sure where we go from here as a defence strategy.
Click to expand...
Completely disagree, he's played aggressive to try and get concessions out of Ukraine that they'll never join NATO. The west have called his bluff by saying they expect the invasion and almost giving him the perfect opportunity to do so, by removing their embassy staff and advising citizens to leave.

If the invasion doesn't happen, I can't see how it ever will. The west will continue to supply Ukraine with equipment and they'll continue to beef up their defences. Domestically the younger generation are leaning increasingly westward too, so any occupation would become increasingly difficult to maintain.
 
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