Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES)

[r@mside]

On Newsnight tonight.

Tobias Elwood frantic that lying Putin is in full control. US and Europe is panicking when we need British leadership. Get more NATO troops on the ground and set up a no fly zone now.

US talking head says, well done UK and agree to a point. Instead of troops, sell more weapons to Ukraine.

God forbid there's a diplomatic solution, we'll have lost the make believe war.

 

[Willincity]

The UK/US/EU have told all 'non-essential citizens to leave Ukraine (presumably including dog rescuers), maybe part of the rhetoric but it's not looking too clever.
Just been watching an embarrassing bit of Russian video somebody filmed on social media (from a distance) of a large number of Russian tanks on exercise near the border, all of which were firmly bogged down in a field. Looks like they'd prefer a bit of a decent frost before any silliness started!

 

[LondonBlackCat]

What do we think Putin's end game is? He surely can't expect to take and occupy the whole of Ukraine with 100-150k ground troops.

It seems more likely to me that they'll sweep down through the Donbas across eastern Ukraine to Crimea and essentially annex all of that, or at least try to.

 

[Rizla]

What do we think Putin's end game is? He surely can't expect to take and occupy the whole of Ukraine with 100-150k ground troops.

It seems more likely to me that they'll sweep down through the Donbas across eastern Ukraine to Crimea and essentially annex all of that, or at least try to.

Encircle Kiev, force the government into exile and put his own puppet dictator in charge like in Belarus. That sounds like his strategy.

He feels vulnerable, he knows an increasing number of Russians don't support him, which is why Navalny is in jail and any demonstrations are brutally cracked down. It's less about Nato and more about his long term political survival and the more puppet dictators he has on his border, the longer he can survive.

 

[LondonBlackCat]

Encircle Kiev, force the government into exile and put his own puppet dictator in charge like in Belarus. That sounds like his strategy.

He feels vulnerable, he knows an increasing number of Russians don't support him, which is why Navalny is in jail and any demonstrations are brutally cracked down. It's less about Nato and more about his long term political survival and the more puppet dictators he has on his border, the longer he can survive.

I saw an interesting thread on twitter the other day about the possible course of an invasion from someone fairly authoritative on the subject of military manoeuvres (which I now can't find, naturally) which suggested 4-5 days for the Russians to get to Kiev taking into account maintaining lines of supply and so on, possibly more depending on resistance by Ukrainian forces.

I suppose if it plays out in that manner then NATO will have a day or so to decide what to do and even less time to put a plan into action.

 

[nelford_safc]

Would love to see an invasion avoided at all costs. But if it was to happen I’ve loved to see the Ukrainians bog the Russians down for a while and show them up a bit. Still undecided as to wether they’ll actually invade. 150k troops seems very little for an invasion of a country the size of the Ukraine. Don’t forget they’ll be thousands of non combat support soldiers and medical staff included in that 150,000.

 

[johnhp]

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claps

 

[Mackem DJ]

And there's the point. They were testing long range bombers in Syria, launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea etc & nobody was arsed.

I think people were arsed tbf. The Russian Army are likely to be far less worried about civillian casualties than US / Nato forces were and much more of the bloodshed on them shores has been caused by brutal religious insurgents.

Will need to see how it pans out.

 

[Helvellyn]

Let's hope history is not repeating itself; we have a lebensraum embracing Putin in play and currently a Western front engaging in appeasement (Crimea) , failing in diplomacy (Ukraine) and likely to go back to appeasement after Ukraine falls. If the West collapses over Ukraine, will Putin be emboldened?

Typing this out does it seem a tad theatrical but by the same token if there are any cracks or divisions in Nato in the coming weeks who is to say Poland (again!) would get the steadfast defence it expects from Nato 2-3 years down the line. Unlikely this will manifest, of course, but current realpolitk is letting Russia up the ante.

 

[jcrossan]

Russia could always accuse Ukraine of having weapons of mass destruction - hey, maybe they kept a couple of their nukes after all - and then blow Kiev to kingdom come before sending the troops in.

But only a barbaric land of lunatics would do such a thing.

 

[Dogbark]

Russia could always accuse Ukraine of having weapons of mass destruction - hey, maybe they kept a couple of their nukes after all - and then blow Kiev to kingdom come before sending the troops in.

But only a barbaric land of lunatics would do such a thing.

That would mean no more chicken kievs anarl

 

[3.142]

What do we think Putin's end game is? He surely can't expect to take and occupy the whole of Ukraine with 100-150k ground troops.

It seems more likely to me that they'll sweep down through the Donbas across eastern Ukraine to Crimea and essentially annex all of that, or at least try to.

70 yo, coming towards the end of his leadership and wanting to make a lasting and visible impact on the map.

Ukraine was pivotal in USSR leadership and so has huge appeal, and the whole NATO thing was created as a smokescreen imo. Putin really wants to protect a ring of countries around Russia that side with him, and he doesn't have that clearly with Ukraine now.

As a population, Ukraine itself fought for centuries to be recognised as an independent nation. I can't see them rolling over to have their bellies tickled by the Russians now even if the Russians initially come steaming and 'take over'.

 

[Sinbad Skullhead]

Russia could always accuse Ukraine of having weapons of mass destruction - hey, maybe they kept a couple of their nukes after all - and then blow Kiev to kingdom come before sending the troops in.

But only a barbaric land of lunatics would do such a thing.

Commie claptrap

 

[HellsBells]

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He's got a form to fill in

Putin has played a long term blinder.

Get Trump in, Get Brexit Done, Get Russians in the Lords, control gas to Europe. Control the narrative. Then do what he likes.

 

[r@mside]

What do we think Putin's end game is? He surely can't expect to take and occupy the whole of Ukraine with 100-150k ground troops.

It seems more likely to me that they'll sweep down through the Donbas across eastern Ukraine to Crimea and essentially annex all of that, or at least try to.

World domination muhahahahaha

 

[MonkeyLove]

On Newsnight tonight.

Tobias Elwood frantic that lying Putin is in full control. US and Europe is panicking when we need British leadership. Get more NATO troops on the ground and set up a no fly zone now.

US talking head says, well done UK and agree to a point. Instead of troops, sell more weapons to Ukraine.

God forbid there's a diplomatic solution, we'll have lost the make believe war.

You seem very bold that their won’t be a war in direct contradiction to a significant amount of intelligence reports, military experts and Russian experts. Who all seem to think it’s highly likely Putin for his strategic needs will invade.

Will you still be talking about a make believe war if the tanks roll into Ukraine in the next couple of weeks or will there be some other deflection?

 

[r@mside]

You seem very bold that their won’t be a war in direct contradiction to a significant amount of intelligence reports, military experts and Russian experts. Who all seem to think it’s highly likely Putin for his strategic needs will invade.

Will you still be talking about a make believe war if the tanks roll into Ukraine in the next couple of weeks or will there be some other deflection?

No, I'll admit I got it wrong.

 

[Mercia Blackcat]

Ireland isn’t part of nato
Will Johnson stand shoulder to shoulder with the Irish

c u next Tuesday
Them Russians

I think NATO would go ballistic with full UK involvement if Russia attacked Ireland . Does that really need explaining?

I suppose a nuclear armed Russian submarine off the Irish coast is no big deal to some but would we tolerate the Russians installing ground based nukes in Ireland? Putin complains about the future possibility of nukes based in countries close to Russia then sends a nuclear sub to the west of Britain while reminding the west of Russia's nuclear capability.

All the Irish would need to do was request help and it would be given.

 

[APH]

What do we think Putin's end game is? He surely can't expect to take and occupy the whole of Ukraine with 100-150k ground troops.

It seems more likely to me that they'll sweep down through the Donbas across eastern Ukraine to Crimea and essentially annex all of that, or at least try to.

I don't think they'd look to take the whole of Ukraine, at least initially anyway. There's alot of talk that they'd stop at the Dnieper river.

 

[MonkeyLove]

This isn’t new to Ukraine they have been preparing for it since 2014 so will have some defence.

They have a huge number of contract and volunteer ground forces which have been trained by Western experts over the last decade. They also have some weapons which are a threat to Russia particularly anti-ship and anti-tank weapons given them by the West.

Unfortunately this may work against Ukraine as it makes it more likely that Russia will use the main advantage it does have of air superiority. Airforce, drones, missiles (The Russians have moved large numbers of Iskanders to the border). Sadly these are a lot more in discriminatory if used against front lines but also urban areas. It’s unlikely Russia will want to roll its tanks and army through large open areas or towns and cities to be picked off without clearing the way first which possibly lends itself to the risk of large civilian casualties.

May not happen but that seems to be the view of military experts. Russia are more likely if they do invade to start off with a large air and missile campaign which could be a blood bath