Thanks, very interesting, my money (ha ha) is on them wasting the money ... also interesting they have a series of top clubs to get past whereas it used to be get past Man’s and the Gunners ...
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All NUFC and Sportswashing here (threads will be merged)
- Thread starter Mackem2017
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Luna17
Striker
we've all been thereHope you're right
IF, and it's a big IF, they get two PL class defenders, they have enough attacking wise (just), to squeeze out of the bottom 3.
Also depends on Wilson not missing too many more games (unlikely), and ASM since signing another striker doesn't seem to be a priority for them.
It is quite amusing seeing who they are being linked with an in January. Do they really think Tarkowski, Ben Mee and Cook of Bournemouth are going to shore up that defence ?
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D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
36 points will probably be more than enough. Last season it was 29 points or 28 points with -25 GD last season to stay up. I think it will be lower than historical average again this season as there's some poor teams at the bottom again.
Draws instead of defeats are saving Southampton at the moment but they've only won 3 times against poor teams this season, all by 1-0. Watford are also poor and threw 3 valuable points away Friday but have improved a bit under Ranieri. I think those 2 teams along with the Mags, Norwich and Burnley are the group fighting against relegation.
Leeds, Everton*, Palace, Brighton and Brentford play decent football so will get mid 30's points (* will get Calvin Lewis back eventually). 35 points has been enough the last 5 seasons as these are the points/GD for the team in 18th along with the total points for the 3 relegated teams in brackets. As you can see last season was one of the 'easiest' for a team to finish 17th and one of the lowest 3 teams totals.
20/21 28 -24 (77)
19/20 34 -24 (89)
18/19 34 -35 (76)
17/18 33 -28 (97)
16/17 34 -43 (86)
This season, using pro rate, Burnley would finish 19th on 28 points with -18 and the bottom 3 will total 75pts so similar to last season. However, I doubt the Mags will be shite all season as they will probably bring in players to improve their squad and get more than their current average points 2nd half of the season and end up with over 30 points.
The team to fill their relegation spot will probably be Southampton IMO. They've been terrible since mid last season and have got 29 points from their last 37 games with W7 D8 L22. The concern being that of the 7 games they've won, 6 have been at home which have been Fulham (R), Sheff Utd (R), Burnley & Palace last season and a poor Leeds, Villa this. They've only beaten Watford away this season and all 3 wins this season have been just 1-0.
So if someone wants an outsider team who will possibly drop then the 9-1 Betfair odds for Southampton relegation is a good bet IMO. They sold Ings and Vestergaard in the summer which just made them weaker. If they stick with Hasenhuttl past the transfer window they may be in big trouble even if a new manager comes in afterwards. I think they'll take the place of the Mags and go down with Norwich & Burnley (if they stick with Dyce).
They're shit. Which half-decent, sensible player is going to sign for a bottom three team wih the smelliest supporters in the country?
Hope you're right
IF, and it's a big IF, they get two PL class defenders, they have enough attacking wise (just), to squeeze out of the bottom 3.
Also depends on Wilson not missing too many more games (unlikely), and ASM since signing another striker doesn't seem to be a priority for them.
It is quite amusing seeing who they are being linked with an in January. Do they really think Tarkowski, Ben Mee and Cook of Bournemouth are going to shore up that defence ?
Luna17
Striker
Good stuff mate.
35 will easily be enough this season.
Forget about Norwich and Burnley, they will defo take the bottom 2 spots.
Soton are defo the one that will save the mags in my view as I think Ranieri has enough nous to just save Watford.
Leeds are so good to watch but have a porous defence which will probably see them in the mix until the end but should survive.
tunstall birdman
Striker
I'm a veggie, so that rules out his mate is me.
D
Deleted member 1169
Guest
My 36 is based on looking at the points 17th placed have been on and relating it to the gap between bottom and 17th.
| Average | 38.46 |
| Max | 44.33 |
| Min | 34.00 |
| Last 5 year | 37.2 |
| >37 | 4 |
| Average when gap > 6 at game week 14 | 35.5 |
If you are bored try this for each season:
- sum points
- for each team find the share of points and multiply by 100
- square the share of points
- sum them
2020/21 it was 573. The higher the number the less competitive the league. I would like to map this index (HHI) to the points for 17th...drop me a PM to collab.
So 2 teams that are playing better, have better fixtures and getting better results than the mags are definitely going down?
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
Sorry I'm not bored!
It's all ifs and buts along with statistics that I'd normally look at but owt could still happen and it's the Mags in the mix. Though as a betting man, I do think Southampton are a decent odds relegation bet so I've just there hoyed £10 on them for a £85.50 profit.
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johnny kayo
Striker
They’ll be fine, richest clurb in the wurrrrld
edna
Winger
Yes, the stats say so.
Apart from they don’t because the stats are ignored because the mags will probably buy some players.
D
Deleted member 48353
Guest
Just need to start playing the kit man and bus driver and they’ll be fine, I should know, some English slobs with tea towels on their heads told me
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
Burnley, 1 win (Brentford H) in last 18 and 8 draws and 9 defeats. Click on Premier League to see an easy visual of form.
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Norwich are also bad as their 2 wins came against Brentford A and Southampton H and they'd lost a shit load before those wins.
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Norwich can't score and have had their new manager bounce period. Burnley may get new manager bounce if Dyce goes but selling Tarkowski may be a risk too much as their defence isn't that bad.
The mags will no doubt pull in better players to improve the squad come January. Hopefully no way as good as their fans expect and the less points they have by then the better. It will be amusing if they end up signing mercenaries who don't put in the graft. A big game for them is the Southampton away game Jan 2nd and I'll be having a dabble on the Mags so I make money if they win!
sofatester
Striker
Saudi
Murdering
Bastards
Murdering
Bastards
I could have handled that at twice the pace, but a decent graphical explanation.
Notes: wealth of owners v wealth in clubs - they started of poorly there in order to make what followed more dramatic. The new rules are to stop anyone ELSE from buying the league, protecting the cartel and finally, the commercial income and sponsorship could have been given a few more sentences - in the current set up that is the 'cheat' that lets you sidestep the rules. Ha'Way PL - get that door slammed closed.
ps Ashley was very good to them - but they'll never admit it. PIF could make the same profit, a canny return without the unwelcome spotlight on sportswashing that any success would bring. Potentially 33% annual return, with some gentle sportswashing thrown in, keeping the club right where Ashley did.
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Those rules will make things more difficult but they'll still be able to be circumvented.
Bears Beets
Striker
Wuh got Peter Parker making the nets, wuh the richist klerb in the world
Skaddnhotpies
Midfield
Canny
- Status
