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All NUFC and Sportswashing here (threads will be merged)

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Luna17 said:
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Too many winnable home games sadly.

They won't pick many up away even if they strengthen in January, but in 2022, they've got Watford, Everton, AV, Brighton, CP, Wolves, Leicester and Arsenal all at skunk park.
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They wont get no more than 9 points from that lot
 
When Edward VII'th was promoted with Bournemouth his win rate was 28.9%. He then had seasons of 31.6%, 28.9%, 34.2% and 23.7% averaging 29.5% in his five EPL seasons. The games won over 38 games were 11, 12, 11, 13 and 9. Pro-rata over 26 games that is 7.5, 8.2, 7.5, 8.9 and 6.2.

In order to keep them up I estimate 36 points is enough based on historical situations at this stage.

Any of these permutations works:

W: 8, D: 2 - Win rate 36.4%
W: 7, D: 5 - Win rate 31.8%
W: 6, D: 8 - Win rate 27.3%

Essentially EH has to get the mags to perform at the best level he has ever achieved under the following conditions:

- a defence that has conceded more goals than any of the 3 previous relegated mag teams;
- a squad that where the majority know they will be moved on;
- no evidence of new manager bounce;
- no DoF with a PE teacher, Frank McPartland and a consulting firm advising on signings;
- potentially integrating 5+ players into the side;
- an increasingly dominant top 6;
- of the 22 games left 8 are against the current top 6. 9 if you include a rejuvenated Spurs side;
- likely required wins from 14 non-top 6 games is 8 (57%) whilst picking up 2 draws from remaining games (of course they may fluke games against Top 6 but timing could be against them with Liverpool and City in the last four games).

Nothing to me suggests that survival is possible.
 
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They think if they say it enough people will start to believe it. This goon is another absolute idiot up there with Adam P.

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MackemX said:
Brentford and Leeds play to win but if Southampton don't pick up points against Palace away Wed and Brentfotd Saturday they will be in trouble. There's normally 1 team that drops into the relegation battle and I think it will be them and they play the Mags at home Jan 2nd and it could be a relegation place game.

Click on Premier League here and look at their 3 wins since May. Their 3 wins this season against Leeds, Villa at home and Watford away were all just 1-0. In fact they've only won 6 of their last 28 as their other 3 wins were against Palace, Fulham and Burnley last season and they were all home. Click away and you'll see how bad they are! It's only because there's 3 poor teams at the moment as they've picked up 8 points from their last 19 away games.

I can't believe they are still 9-1 (
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) to get relegated as surely worth a tenner?

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As a product the premier league is shite for fans of clubs in the bottom half. 3 wins since may ffs. Imagine paying a fortune to see your favourite band every other week only for them to turn up pissed and forget how to sing and play instruments for the majority of the gigs. You just wouldn’t do it. Football fans are pretty fucked up :lol:
 
Luna17 said:
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Too many winnable home games sadly.

They won't pick many up away even if they strengthen in January, but in 2022, they've got Watford, Everton, AV, Brighton, CP, Wolves, Leicester and Arsenal all at skunk park.
Click to expand...
Watford - either Ranieri is improving them or they'll have a new manager ! Ranieri >>> Howe
Everton - emotional for Rafa - danger of 3 points here for Newcastle, maybe Mina and DCL will be back ?
AV - Gerrard is good man ! far better than Howe anyway
Brighton - need a striker in the Jan window but Potter >>> Howe
Arsenal - usually finish the season strong
 
jlaws said:
When Edward VII'th was promoted with Bournemouth his win rate was 28.9%. He then had seasons of 31.6%, 28.9%, 34.2% and 23.7% averaging 29.5% in his five EPL seasons. The games won over 38 games were 11, 12, 11, 13 and 9. Pro-rata over 26 games that is 7.5, 8.2, 7.5, 8.9 and 6.2.

In order to keep them up I estimate 36 points is enough based on historical situations at this stage.

Any of these permutations works:

W: 8, D: 2 - Win rate 36.4%
W: 7, D: 5 - Win rate 31.8%
W: 6, D: 8 - Win rate 27.3%

Essentially EH has to get the mags to perform at the best level he has ever achieved under the following conditions:

- a defence that has conceded more goals than any of the 3 previous relegated mag teams;
- a squad that where the majority know they will be moved on;
- no evidence of new manager bounce;
- no DoF with a PE teacher, Frank McPartland and a consulting firm advising on signings;
- potentially integrating 5+ players into the side;
- an increasingly dominant top 6;
- of the 22 games left 8 are against the current top 6. 9 if you include a rejuvenated Spurs side;
- likely required wins from 14 non-top 6 games is 8 (57%) whilst picking up 2 draws from remaining games (of course they may fluke games against Top 6 but timing could be against them with Liverpool and City in the last four games).

Nothing to me suggests that survival is possible.
Click to expand...

You don't get analysis like that on an NUFC forum! Well done marra...... ;)

(I don't disagree BTW)
 
Luna17 said:
Feckin hell man, wudnt like to be in the trenches with you :rolleyes::lol:

Fwiw, I would be pleased to see you go down ( doesn't matter anywhere near as much now I'm 60), and see the more unpleasant element of your support, crying in their beer but, take it from me, you will not go down

Despite a terrible first 15 games, you have incredibly not been cut adrift - unbelievable really.

Norwich are goners.

Burnley will go this season esp with Cornet out.

And the third one will be from youse, Soton, Watford, Leeds and maybe even Everton who are only 8 points ahead.

Once 2021 is out of the way, and even if you only have 12/13/14 points by the start of 2022, imho, you will pick up enough points at home to get to the 35/36 required.

The January window is a tough one, but Allardyce cracked it with us in 2016, so it's not impossible.

I don't think for one minute that the likes of Lingard will sign when they have better placed options, but Howe will get 2/3 in where it matters, and add that to the likes of Wilson and ASM, and you have every chance of finishing above Soton and Watford.
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I made the mistake of allowing myself hope the last few relegations, and it nearly finished me off. Trying a different tactic this time.
 
jlaws said:
When Edward VII'th was promoted with Bournemouth his win rate was 28.9%. He then had seasons of 31.6%, 28.9%, 34.2% and 23.7% averaging 29.5% in his five EPL seasons. The games won over 38 games were 11, 12, 11, 13 and 9. Pro-rata over 26 games that is 7.5, 8.2, 7.5, 8.9 and 6.2.

In order to keep them up I estimate 36 points is enough based on historical situations at this stage.

Any of these permutations works:

W: 8, D: 2 - Win rate 36.4%
W: 7, D: 5 - Win rate 31.8%
W: 6, D: 8 - Win rate 27.3%

Essentially EH has to get the mags to perform at the best level he has ever achieved under the following conditions:

- a defence that has conceded more goals than any of the 3 previous relegated mag teams;
- a squad that where the majority know they will be moved on;
- no evidence of new manager bounce;
- no DoF with a PE teacher, Frank McPartland and a consulting firm advising on signings;
- potentially integrating 5+ players into the side;
- an increasingly dominant top 6;
- of the 22 games left 8 are against the current top 6. 9 if you include a rejuvenated Spurs side;
- likely required wins from 14 non-top 6 games is 8 (57%) whilst picking up 2 draws from remaining games (of course they may fluke games against Top 6 but timing could be against them with Liverpool and City in the last four games).

Nothing to me suggests that survival is possible.
Click to expand...
all great points and also worth remembering the sole highlight of Eddie's cv is a long slow build of a nice-ish team of egoless no-marks in the no pressure surroundings of FC Bournemouth ( tiny fanbase of mostly OAPs just happy to be out of the care home for the afternoon) . There is no evidence that Eddie is a good turnaround manager / fire fighter , he struggled in the transfer market once Bournemouth released cash and we don't know how he'll react to having to do his work in front of a horde of orcs offering words of encouragement.
 
I'm Spartacus said:
As a product the premier league is shite for fans of clubs in the bottom half. 3 wins since may ffs. Imagine paying a fortune to see your favourite band every other week only for them to turn up pissed and forget how to sing and play instruments for the majority of the gigs. You just wouldn’t do it. Football fans are pretty fucked up :lol:
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No mate, the whole structure of football is fucked up

Level playing fields are long gone sadly
 
Wansbeck Viking said:
A world class fan base wouldn’t need to give away 10k free tickets.
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Self praise is no praise. No idea why they feel the need to try and convince the world they are the worlds greatest fans. They’re not - far from it but if they were (which they definitely fcking aren’t) so what!!!
 
Could have sworn I read on here by one of the resident mags that the squad were a lot better than the results they were getting and just needed to replace Bruce with a proper Coach to get the best out of the players....oh well
 
Mackem2017 said:
They think if they say it enough people will start to believe it. This goon is another absolute idiot up there with Adam P.

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Spartan said:
all great points and also worth remembering the sole highlight of Eddie's cv is a long slow build of a nice-ish team of egoless no-marks in the no pressure surroundings of FC Bournemouth ( tiny fanbase of mostly OAPs just happy to be out of the care home for the afternoon) . There is no evidence that Eddie is a good turnaround manager / fire fighter , he struggled in the transfer market once Bournemouth released cash and we don't know how he'll react to having to do his work in front of a horde of orcs offering words of encouragement.
Click to expand...

I'm a quantitative researcher not a qualitative one.
 
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