18th October Stats

The Lambton Worm

The Lambton Worm

Striker
Because of processing issues with vaccination data in England, it has only been possible to update the headline totals. Data at local authority and region level has not been updated.

Some historic data hasn't been updated because it isn't available on the Govt. site. I will update it when I can.

Figures reported on a Monday by Wales are for a 48h period. This is reflected in the UK total.

Hospital data for ST&S is updated weekly on a Thursday.

* Data not updated from previous day.

+/- compared to one week ago.

Percentages in [] = total percentage of people aged 12+ who have received a COVID-19 vaccination.

Figures in () for doses = daily total.

133 cases in Sunderland. +36
0 deaths in Sunderland. -
5 patients admitted to hospital in South Tyneside & Sunderland. -1
64 patients in hospital in South Tyneside & Sunderland. -2
6 patients on ventilation in South Tyneside & Sunderland. -2

1,668 cases in the NE. -498
1 death in the NE. -
151 patients admitted to hospital in the NE & Yorks. +5
1,259 patients in hospital in the NE & Yorks. +90
118 patients on ventilation in the NE & Yorks. -3

49,156 cases in the UK. +8,932
45 deaths in the UK. +17
915* patients admitted to hospital in the UK. +90
7,097 patients in hospital in the UK. +321
791 patients on ventilation in the UK. +11

980,528 tests conducted. Last week: 916,040

England 7 day test positivity rate as of 12/10/21 = 8.5% +1.2

Sunderland 7 day rolling average:
366.3 cases per 100,000 using backdated data. -
404.9 cases per 100,000 using daily data. +37.5

460.6 cases per 100,000 for the UK using daily data. +62.9

208,411 [81.3%] (-) people have received 1st dose of vaccination in Sunderland. -
192,655 [75.2%] (-) people have received 2nd dose of vaccination in Sunderland. -

1,976,880 [80.1%] (-) people have received 1st dose of vaccination in the NE. -
1,832,931 [74.3%] (-) people have received 2nd dose of vaccination in the NE. -

49,422,753 [85.9] (17,837) people have received 1st dose of vaccination in the UK. +206,661
45,377,411 [78.9] (17,265) people have received 2nd dose of vaccination in the UK. +164,598
 


janey said:
I’ve never been a panicer but the numbers of infections are rising quite quickly. I just hope the jabs mean people don’t get as too poorly and end up in hospital.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450156284049821699
Click to expand...

The latest data suggests cases aren't rising in the age groups most at risk. In fact, it isn't rising significantly in any age group except under 12s. Looking at the latest ONS data, you can take it that the increase in infections is largely among bairns.

'Problem there is that it takes a while to get to those most at risk as they don't socialise as much but more cases among any age group clearly means the more of it there is going around to get to those most at risk, which could well be the worst time of the year as we get into winter.
 
Locke's SAFC said:
The latest data suggests cases aren't rising in the age groups most at risk. In fact, it isn't rising significantly in any age group except under 12s. Looking at the latest ONS data, you can take it that the increase in infections is largely among bairns.

'Problem there is that it takes a while to get to those most at risk as they don't socialise as much but more cases among any age group clearly means the more of it there is going around to get to those most at risk, which could well be the worst time of the year as we get into winter.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that detail 👍
 
This isn't my best work (looks a bit ugly, haven't double checked it etc) but hopefully sheds some light on where cases are coming from atm. This chart shows the seven day average of the case rate by age band. So whilst it isn't showing contribution in terms of raw number of cases, it is showing which groups are disproportionally testing positive. Look at the huge rise in the case rate in age group 10 to 14, plain as day that is schools. Now harm to kids isn't on anywhere the same scale as harm to adults (in the main, though some children will suffer long covid) but I'd be worried we're creating a pool of infected people that will eventually spill over into older age bands.

Logon or register to see this image
 
Last edited:
OK, thanks Frijj. Any theories on why schools aren't sending cases through the roof in other countries?. Are more of their kids jabbed perhaps?
 
Frijj said:
This isn't my best work (looks a bit ugly, haven't double checked it etc) but hopefully sheds some light on where cases are coming from atm. This chart shows the seven day average of the case rate by age band. So whilst it isn't showing contribution in terms of raw number of cases, it is showing which groups are disproportionally testing positive. Look at the huge rise in the case rate in age group 10 to 14, plain as day that is schools. Now harm to kids isn't on anywhere the same scale as harm to adults (in the main, though some children will suffer long covid) but I'd be worried we're creating a pool of infected people that will eventually spill over into older age bands.

Logon or register to see this image
Click to expand...
7 day averages for hospitalisations and deaths are up on this time last year. Should that be a cause for concern?
 
Frijj said:
This isn't my best work (looks a bit ugly, haven't double checked it etc) but hopefully sheds some light on where cases are coming from atm. This chart shows the seven day average of the case rate by age band. So whilst it isn't showing contribution in terms of raw number of cases, it is showing which groups are disproportionally testing positive. Look at the huge rise in the case rate in age group 10 to 14, plain as day that is schools. Now harm to kids isn't on anywhere the same scale as harm to adults (in the main, though some children will suffer long covid) but I'd be worried we're creating a pool of infected people that will eventually spill over into older age bands.

Logon or register to see this image
Click to expand...
Falling Covid cases in Spain’s schools lead experts to believe herd immunity is near

Are masks being worn in English schools ?
 
Silly Point said:
OK, thanks Frijj. Any theories on why schools aren't sending cases through the roof in other countries?. Are more of their kids jabbed perhaps?
Click to expand...

Number of tests, maybe. Probably. I don't know how many tests are being ran in our schools compared to the rest of the developed world. I did read recently that one of the Royal Colleges was recommending the ending of testing in schools, or perhaps a scaling down.
 
Baloo said:
7 day averages for hospitalisations and deaths are up on this time last year. Should that be a cause for concern?
Click to expand...

I suppose the true answer to that is more nuanced than I have sufficient data to answer properly. I wouldn't necessarily place that much stock in the time of year. Numbers in hospital seem fairly stable. I think the best answer to this would require someone to determine why these patients are in hospital, and where they were infected. If they're community acquired and being admitted to hospital with a primary or secondary diagnosis code of COVID, then you've got more of a problem I'd say, than people who are admitted for something else entirely who then a) go on to test positive having already acquired COVID outside the hospital or b) go on to test positive having caught COVID in the hospital.

The former suggests a burden of COVID in the community that is causing hospitalisations outright, whereas the latter suggests we're simply finding COVID in the population likely to be admitted to hospital.

But as I say the picture is far more nuanced than I have data on or could ever see, so this is part speculation and part educated guess.
 

Back
Top