Sunderland

Locke's SAFC said:
In terms of actually being infected, I would have thought significantly. A high proportion of people will be tested when they develop symptoms and on average symptoms develop 5 days after infection. Add to that the average time from test to result. So, reported infections are limited in terms of tracking the current position. Hospital admissions is a better indicator of how the virus is spreading.
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I've said that all along. I've just said on another although it might appear cases are dropping locally overall, it doesn't mean that cases in the over 60s aren't going up. We know a month ago younguns were the problem age group. We might have had for example 150 cases and they were all under 40. We then drop to say 80 but they're all over 60. That's going to cause more problems with hospital admissions.
 


Botchie said:
I've said that all along. I've just said on another although it might appear cases are dropping locally overall, it doesn't mean that cases in the over 60s aren't going up. We know a month ago younguns were the problem age group. We might have had for example 150 cases and they were all under 40. We then drop to say 80 but they're all over 60. That's going to cause more problems with hospital admissions.
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Aye, I'd build in variations in testing numbers as well. 'Too many variables to take a few days and draw a conclusion - you'd need to analyse trends over say a month or so.

I reckon people can make their judgement from what they're seeing and could be closer to the mark than the reported figures. I only go in pubs for a quick pint on a Saturday and Sunday afternoon so I don't know how full they are at night. People with busy social lives should really be able to tell if the figures will go down just by being out and about in pubs, restaurants, and so on and by knowing what their mates are doing - being in people's houses having drinks. If people haven't changed their behaviour then there's not much chance of seeing a drop off in cases until the virus has got around enough people to mean far fewer bodies to infect. 'Same goes with universities and the like - I've no idea what the students are doing at the moment but if they don't take more care then they'll continue to pass it around. I've no idea if people are now following the guidelines more than they were but I'd imagine a good few on here would be able to give a general feel for it.

You're right with the hospital admissions point. It's pretty much as I expected in that younger people were primarily picking it up, and that's mainly because the more vulnerable people don't mix in as many enclosed spaces, but it was always going to get to them eventually when those younger people took it back to families and so on. If the younger people keep passing it on it will inevitably lead to more hospital admissions - not them but the people it eventually gets to. So, I don't think younger people being disproportionately infected is a good thing - it just means that there's going to be a lag before more vulnerable people end up in hospital but it definitely will happen.
 
yes, the virus will take a day off on Dec 25th as a goodwill gesture. Absolute madness.
If johnson relaxes rules its a bigger mistake than not sacking Cummings.
If he does , why not relax rules on a Saturday so can all go and watch Sunderland ????
 

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