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June to July 2020 - NUFC

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AndyH said:
I don't think it's likely anyone would by us in leveraged buy out, it would be to high risk for not enough reward.
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Why ever not? Borrowing costs are minimal, the seller wants to sell at something like 60m below the fair value, the tail of the premier league is weak, the asset generates sufficient cash flow to make the interest payments. Ride it out for 3-5 years and sell at a profit, when things return to normality.
 

The Fish said:
The worry is that this drags on for even longer and the new new owners find themselves scrabbling to find the players, and staff they want for the 20/21 season.
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Agreed. If it isn’t happening just say so plans can begin for next season, as to be fair to Bruce it is important for him and the squad they know what’s happening.
 
jlaws said:
Why ever not? Borrowing costs are minimal, the seller wants to sell at something like 60m below the fair value, the tail of the premier league is weak, the asset generates sufficient cash flow to make the interest payments. Ride it out for 3-5 years and sell at a profit, when things return to normality.
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I think without significant on field investment the chances of us being relegated are way to high.
Although we gained safety quite early this year I think the football gods have been smiling on us and we have more points than our play merits.
I think the chances of saddling yourself with 300 million in debt and than having a club worth half that 9 months later are pretty high.
Just an opinion though.
 
AndyH said:
I think without significant on field investment the chances of us being relegated are way to high.
Although we gained safety quite early this year I think the football gods have been smiling on us and we have more points than our play merits.
I think the chances of saddling yourself with 300 million in debt and than having a club worth half that 9 months later are pretty high.
Just an opinion though.
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But why would anyone else buy it? To move to the next level would need a huge expenditure on players, which brings extra wages (you are already 50m below Everton etc.) - back of an envelope a sustained investment of 100m p.a. going forward. The commercial revenue is poor, as is match day (and going even lower) so financially you rely on TV money which everyone else has, so a benefactor is needed, and they are very few and far between as you need very deep pockets.

The chance to buy an asset for 20% below fair value, when rates are so low and you can use the club as collateral makes it a very good proposition. An investor will just look at the solid financial statements and the fact you will finish comfortably above the relegation zone. Put the right people in charge, keep a tight ship and in five years time you could make 200m, without even investing any of your own money.
 
jlaws said:
But why would anyone else buy it? To move to the next level would need a huge expenditure on players, which brings extra wages (you are already 50m below Everton etc.) - back of an envelope a sustained investment of 100m p.a. going forward. The commercial revenue is poor, as is match day (and going even lower) so financially you rely on TV money which everyone else has, so a benefactor is needed, and they are very few and far between as you need very deep pockets.

The chance to buy an asset for 20% below fair value, when rates are so low and you can use the club as collateral makes it a very good proposition. An investor will just look at the solid financial statements and the fact you will finish comfortably above the relegation zone. Put the right people in charge, keep a tight ship and in five years time you could make 200m, without even investing any of your own money.
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The part I have put in bold is where our opinions differ, I think we are highly likely to go down next year which is why I don't think a leveraged take over would be a good idea.
 
jlaws said:
But why would anyone else buy it? To move to the next level would need a huge expenditure on players, which brings extra wages (you are already 50m below Everton etc.) - back of an envelope a sustained investment of 100m p.a. going forward. The commercial revenue is poor, as is match day (and going even lower) so financially you rely on TV money which everyone else has, so a benefactor is needed, and they are very few and far between as you need very deep pockets.

The chance to buy an asset for 20% below fair value, when rates are so low and you can use the club as collateral makes it a very good proposition. An investor will just look at the solid financial statements and the fact you will finish comfortably above the relegation zone. Put the right people in charge, keep a tight ship and in five years time you could make 200m, without even investing any of your own money.
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The commercial revenue is piss poor (Fanks Mike), but a more shrewd owner could definitely bring a significant improvement on that side of things without needing to be an oil-state.
 
I still think it will go through.....the papers/keys etc know fuck all they are just pissing in the dark.One news source prints a story saying the deal is dead and its regurgitated a dozen times
 
The Fish said:
The commercial revenue is piss poor (Fanks Mike), but a more shrewd owner could definitely bring a significant improvement on that side of things without needing to be an oil-state.
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This just supports my leveraged buyout suggestion where a buyer recognised that revenue stream is not being maximised. Last figures I recall it was down at 28m and Spurs were over 100m and it would take years of sustained effort to get upto that level...but would increase value and profit when the buyer cashes out.
AndyH said:
The part I have put in bold is where our opinions differ, I think we are highly likely to go down next year which is why I don't think a leveraged take over would be a good idea.
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An investor doesn't have that emotion they will just see 10 points clear and heading for a 25th from 28 possible premier league season. If Ashley wants to sell there will be no shortage of suitors .... but they may not have deep pockets.
 
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The Fish said:
The commercial revenue is piss poor (Fanks Mike), but a more shrewd owner could definitely bring a significant improvement on that side of things without needing to be an oil-state.
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Surely commercial revenue corresponds to success on the pitch. It's no surprise it's fell after you have stopped buying players on tick
 
From an outsider looking in it is ridiculous that it's been over 15 weeks and still no decision. What exactly is the hold up, either the premier League block it or let it through
 
I've just seen the article in the Mirror...what complete bullshit....how in earth would Simon Bird know...nobody knows...there is a non disclosure contract signed...
Complete guesswork and Clickbait at it's worst .
 
Kestrel 9 said:
I've just seen the article in the Mirror...what complete bullshit....how in earth would Simon Bird know...nobody knows...there is a non disclosure contract signed...
Complete guesswork and Clickbait at it's worst .
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He doesn't know no one does the article is no different to all the other articles saying it's going through or imminent and by that I mean it's, all guesswork
 
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