Coronavirus compendium thread

Frijj said:
I wouldn’t put much stock in that ratio. The number of people who have recovered is artificially lowered by the people who will recover but haven’t yet.

The crude mortality rate is about 2.5 in every 100.
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I saw 2-3% quoted on the site but I don't get how they can make that judgement.

I thought the death ratio was using the crude figures of those who have survived v those who have died.

I'm assuming that isn't correct? Can you explain further?
 


Aituk7 said:
I saw 2-3% quoted on the site but I don't get how they can make that judgement.

I thought the death ratio was using the crude figures of those who have survived v those who have died.

I'm assuming that isn't correct? Can you explain further?
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They’re separate measures. If you’re using a ratio of deaths to survivors you omit those who still have the disease but are likely to make a recovery, who will make up the bulk of all diagnosed with it.

The crude rate is just a simple deaths / cases * 100
 
Frijj said:
They’re separate measures. If you’re using a ratio of deaths to survivors you omit those who still have the disease but are likely to make a recovery, who will make up the bulk of all diagnosed with it.

The crude rate is just a simple deaths / cases * 100
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Hmmm.... I'm still struggling to see where I'm going wrong here cos you'd assume the trend would follow what it has been at so far.

Or are they expecting the rate of recovery to go up in the weeks to come?
 
Aituk7 said:
Hmmm.... I'm still struggling to see where I'm going wrong here cos you'd assume the trend would follow what it has been at so far.

Or are they expecting the rate of recovery to go up in the weeks to come?
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If 10 people got plain old flu and 1 older person died early on while the other 9 we’re still recovering that metric would show a 100% mortality rate as there would be 0 patients recovered. In actuality the other 9 would likely recover making it 1 in 10.
 
The Beautiful Game said:
If 10 people got plain old flu and 1 older person died early on while the other 9 we’re still recovering that metric would show a 100% mortality rate as there would be 0 patients recovered. In actuality the other 9 would likely recover making it 1 in 10.
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So they are expecting a massive uptick in the survival rate
 
Aituk7 said:
So they are expecting a massive uptick in the survival rate
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The survival rate of resolved cases has always been about 97/98%. You can’t include ongoing cases in either death/survival rates as the outcome is still pending. Hopefully the same trends should continue as they are as the rate of spread reduces and the number of new cases drops.
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bear in mind also that it can take more than two weeks for a person to recover and a vulnerable person may take much less than that to develop complications so the recovery rate will take longer to increase than the death rate.
 
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The Beautiful Game said:
The survival rate of resolved cases has always been about 97/98%. You can’t include ongoing cases in either death/survival rates as the outcome is still pending. Hopefully the same trends should continue as they are as the rate of spread reduces and the number of new cases drops.
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Eh? The survival rate of resolved cases is about 80% according to that tracker.
 
Aituk7 said:
Hmmm.... I'm still struggling to see where I'm going wrong here cos you'd assume the trend would follow what it has been at so far.

Or are they expecting the rate of recovery to go up in the weeks to come?
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Not necessarily, those that have died will die quicker than the time it takes for those who will recover to recover.

Given time, the numbers recovering will continue to grow larger than those dying.

Those who do die are more frail to begin with. It may take a couple of days to die from it but two weeks to recover.

So if you have 100,000 patients infected, the 2,500 who die may die within the first three days, but only 10,000 may have recovered after a week. After a month, they may have all recovered, massively changing the ratio.
 
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stupeo said:
If you exclude Hubei, 39 people have died

Can you explain why we should be so concerned
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Because if you wait until the death rate starts going up rapidly in other areas it’s too late to do anything. There will in all likelihood be two milestones passed by the morning - 100 dead in a day and a 1000 in total.
 

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