Lee Congerton and Steve Houston's Focus On Analytics

[Spelthorne mackem]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just sign a bit of quality.
Whatever happened to signing players on footballing ability rather than how many miles they run.

 

[andy78]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just sign a bit of quality.
Whatever happened to signing players on footballing ability rather than how many miles they run.

We have been signing players with a bit of quality, but we either haven't done enough homework on them and are just 'taking a punt' or they don't suit English football or our style of play.

Craig Gardner and Cristian Riveros for example. Gardner, in the right system, could be very effective in the Premier League (in a role similar to the one Kevin Nolan has played) but we seemed to buy him just because he was available, at no point with us did he look like he was bought to fulfil a particular role in the team. A similar story with Riveros, Bruce didn't even know what position he played (thinking he was a winger) and didn't suit the style of football we were playing, however put him in a Poyet side (in the role just ahead of the holding midfielder) and I think he would have looked a hell of a lot better.

 

[riffraff]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just sign a bit of quality.
Whatever happened to signing players on footballing ability rather than how many miles they run.

Fads come and fads go marra.
Im afraid that analytics or whatever name the attempt to moneyballise football goes under is the new "Route One" and these computer kids are the 21st century Charles Hughes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fuckin imbecile.

 

[andy78]

Fads come and fads go marra.
Im afraid that analytics or whatever name the attempt to moneyballise football goes under is the new "Route One" and these computer kids are the 21st century Charles Hughes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fuckin imbecile.

What a load of shite, Charles Hughes was entirely focused on playing style and going route one. This use of statistics has nothing whatsoever to do with that, it's all about making sure the players you buy have as little risk attached as possible.

 

[Spelthorne mackem]

We have been signing players with a bit of quality, but we either haven't done enough homework on them and are just 'taking a punt' or they don't suit English football or our style of play.

Craig Gardner and Cristian Riveros for example. Gardner, in the right system, could be very effective in the Premier League (in a role similar to the one Kevin Nolan has played) but we seemed to buy him just because he was available, at no point with us did he look like he was bought to fulfil a particular role in the team. A similar story with Riveros, Bruce didn't even know what position he played (thinking he was a winger) and didn't suit the style of football we were playing, however put him in a Poyet side (in the role just ahead of the holding midfielder) and I think he would have looked a hell of a lot better.

I'd agree with Riveros. Think he was a bit similar to the first couple of games Vergini had. You could see that there was a footballer in there through all the negatives that his early performances showed up.

Never was sure what to make of Gardner but I take your point on board,

The issue I have is that you can take every statistic known to man, but the ability to see a players quality and where he can fit into a team is what matters.

 

[andy78]

I'd agree with Riveros. Think he was a bit similar to the first couple of games Vergini had. You could see that there was a footballer in there through all the negatives that his early performances showed up.

Never was sure what to make of Gardner but I take your point on board,

The issue I have is that you can take every statistic known to man, but the ability to see a players quality and where he can fit into a team is what matters.

They still go and scout players and do all that but they take the statistics on board too, it's a case of doing as much work as possible to ensure your signings fit into your team and you have as few transfer flops as possible.

 

[The Situation]

Fads come and fads go marra.
Im afraid that analytics or whatever name the attempt to moneyballise football goes under is the new "Route One" and these computer kids are the 21st century Charles Hughes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fuckin imbecile.

I suppose you think players should still be allowed to smoke tabs in the pre-match warm up too

 

[riffraff]

What a load of shite, Charles Hughes was entirely focused on playing style and going route one. This use of statistics has nothing whatsoever to do with that, it's all about making sure the players you buy have as little risk attached as possible.

Its a fad. Football goes through them from time to time.

 

[andy78]

Its a fad. Football goes through them from time to time.

Of course it's not a fad, it's always happened, originally they would only have looked at how many goals a striker scored for example. Now it's evolved as things like GPS have come about, so now they can see how hard players work too. They aren't going to suddenly stop using this information.

 

[Spelthorne mackem]

They still go and scout players and do all that but they take the statistics on board too, it's a case of doing as much work as possible to ensure your signings fit into your team and you have as few transfer flops as possible.

I'm off to dreamland now, but agree it doesn't do any harm to take in and study any info that can help us.
Let's be honest with our budget we need it.

Just hope personally that we don't go down the "statistics are God" route.

 

[riffraff]

I suppose you think players should still be allowed to smoke tabs in the pre-match warm up too

Aye they should. Feed em on bread n dripping and make sure they put a shift in down the pit first before they turn up to play. Couple of pints at half time anarl.
ffs I first entered this thread to point out that Allardyce was doing this statistic stuff years ago when he was at Bolton and that for SAFC to adopt it now is a bit behind the times. Now Im the one who isnt keeping up with the game. Ferchrissakes I read Moneyball before it was published in the UK. I read the Numbers Game and Soccernomics the week they were published here in hardback. Ive hundreds of football books man, theyre all just cashing in static buzzing through the footballing airwaves.

 

[Flash Gordon]

This is worth a read on plus-minus and Steve Houston.

Cheers mate, that is a good read. The assists stat certainly has it encourages people to look at things far too simplistically with the final pass to the goal scorer seeming to be the only thing that is important in the build up to a goal.

Plus-minus might not be the perfect analysis of a player but it's certainly a helpful indicator on whether a player brings anything to a team.

 

[TartanMackem]

If anyone's interested in the chapter referring to Darren Bent that I mentioned in the OP:

The authors show that all goals are not equal, so for example the first or second goal of a game is far more likely to result in the team which scores these goals winning the game, whereas if a player tacks on two goals at the end of a 3-0 to make the game 5-0 it doesn't result in any real gain for the team (aside from goal difference which has an affect on very rare occasions). They say - "strikers who score the key goals, the ones that can be directly translated into more wins and more points, are worth more than the flat-track bullies who appear to rub salt into wounds, scoring the third and fourth goals as victory turns into drubbing. Simply counting strikes can be deceiving: one goal is not the same as another."

They looked at what players scored the most of these "key goals" over two seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) and found that Bent ranked second behind Rooney in this category in 2009/2010 and second behind Tevez in 2010/2011 (Gyan ranks 18th in the league in that category for that season) while Bent ranked first overall in both years in terms of the % of points his goals won for his teams (us and Villa) - 45.5% in 2009/2010 and 31.5% in 2010/2011.

This is the sort of stuff that I'd imagine Steve Houston is definitely in to, not just simplistic things like distance covered per game, shots per game, pass completion statistics etc.

Pretty interesting that, and something I agree with. You see players tot up nice goal records but when you look closely they're rarely important ones. On the other hand, I think almost every single one of Steven Fletcher's goals for us have been vital.

Its a fad. Football goes through them from time to time.

Can you call something a "fad" when it has been (albeit very slowly) progressing for over half a century? All that is happening now is that clubs are using it more, and looking at statistics they'd never given much consideration to before.

 

[Lewberry pie]

Fads come and fads go marra.
Im afraid that analytics or whatever name the attempt to moneyballise football goes under is the new "Route One" and these computer kids are the 21st century Charles Hughes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fuckin imbecile.

yes maths is just a worthless fad rightio

 

[raven_5]

If anyone's interested in the chapter referring to Darren Bent that I mentioned in the OP:

The authors show that all goals are not equal, so for example the first or second goal of a game is far more likely to result in the team which scores these goals winning the game, whereas if a player tacks on two goals at the end of a 3-0 to make the game 5-0 it doesn't result in any real gain for the team (aside from goal difference which has an affect on very rare occasions). They say - "strikers who score the key goals, the ones that can be directly translated into more wins and more points, are worth more than the flat-track bullies who appear to rub salt into wounds, scoring the third and fourth goals as victory turns into drubbing. Simply counting strikes can be deceiving: one goal is not the same as another."

They looked at what players scored the most of these "key goals" over two seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) and found that Bent ranked second behind Rooney in this category in 2009/2010 and second behind Tevez in 2010/2011 (Gyan ranks 18th in the league in that category for that season) while Bent ranked first overall in both years in terms of the % of points his goals won for his teams (us and Villa) - 45.5% in 2009/2010 and 31.5% in 2010/2011.

This is the sort of stuff that I'd imagine Steve Houston is definitely in to, not just simplistic things like distance covered per game, shots per game, pass completion statistics etc.

But in the same time that could just mean the team played with only one striker, being at the end of every move by the team. Graham scored a lot of important goals for Swansea when he was the only option up front.

 

[Lewberry pie]

Aye they should. Feed em on bread n dripping and make sure they put a shift in down the pit first before they turn up to play. Couple of pints at half time anarl.
ffs I first entered this thread to point out that Allardyce was doing this statistic stuff years ago when he was at Bolton and that for SAFC to adopt it now is a bit behind the times. Now Im the one who isnt keeping up with the game. Ferchrissakes I read Moneyball before it was published in the UK. I read the Numbers Game and Soccernomics the week they were published here in hardback. Ive hundreds of football books man, theyre all just cashing in static buzzing through the footballing airwaves.

oh well if you read the book before me you're automatically THE authority on the subject, Sam allerdyce has never failed yet has he? The mags actually sacked him because the want to play the West Ham way or some other embarrassing thing for them.

But in the same time that could just mean the team played with only one striker, being at the end of every move by the team. Graham scored a lot of important goals for Swansea when he was the only option up front.

thank the heavens we didn't use stats and pay 5 million for him then eh?

 

[raven_5]

thank the heavens we didn't use stats and pay 5 million for him then eh?

How do you know we didn't?

 

[Lewberry pie]

How do you know we didn't?

because Martin O'Neil was the manager and pop Robson was the scout

 

[raven_5]

because Martin O'Neil was the manager and pop Robson was the scout

 

[Flash Gordon]

Pretty interesting that, and something I agree with. You see players tot up nice goal records but when you look closely they're rarely important ones. On the other hand, I think almost every single one of Steven Fletcher's goals for us have been vital.

Jermain Defoe is a very good example of the type of player you mention. Always good for 15 goals a season but when you look closely they were in the form of braces or hat tricks against the likes of Hull, Wigan etc. or scoring a couple to finish a game off. Very rarely were his goals the winner against Arsenal or Man Utd for example.