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Where can we finish? compendium thread?

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How have people not cottoned on to this lad being a mag yet? It was blatantly obvious when he first started posting but it must have been forgotten since.
 

Wakoro said:
Now we are safe we can be more adventurous and creative away from home, where the current system isn't working for us anyway.
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It's funny how fans think its as simple as that
 
Wolves and Burnley are gone.

So I only focus on West Ham.


We would have to lose virtually every game remaining and they would have to win at least half of theirs to just get level with us.

Not going to happen.
 
The SoL is a fortress & were unbeaten at home even having played the current top 3

14 games to go, 7 each H&A

Looking at fixtures, we should really pick up at about 13 at home (3 W, 4D maintaining the unbeaten run)
Away if we win 1, and a couple of draws

Gives us 18 points, add to current 36, 54 should be enough for 8th place
Then Man City get hit with a big points deduction & we climb to 7th & qualify for conference league.

With an extra win, could even scrape 6th place if Man City get done
 
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GipseT said:
Since the move to a 20-team league in 1995, the average points tally for the 18th-placed team (the highest to go down) is 35.6 points.

We are currently on 36 points after 24 games... We have already reached the "average" safety mark with 14 games to spare. Historically, 36 points is enough to stay up in more than 50% of all Premier League seasons.


The "2-Sigma" Safety Net represents a threshold that covers 97.7% of all likely outcomes.

Based on 30 years of data, the standard deviation for the drop is ~3.4 points.
The "Ironclad" Safety Number: 43 points. At 43 points, you are safe. Only once in history has a team gone down with more than 40 (West Ham in 2003 with 42).


The Math for the Rest of 2026

Current Points: 36
Target for 99% Safety: 43
Required: 7 points from 14 matches.
Required Rate: 0.50 Points Per Game (PPG).
Our Current Rate: 1.50 PPG.
We could literally play at one-third of our current level and still hit the scientific safety mark.

The "Weak Floor" Factor
The current bottom three are historically poor. West Ham (18th) is on 20 points, Burnley (19th) on 15, and Wolves (20th) on just 8. For us to go down, West Ham would need to win almost half their remaining games while we lose every single one.

The risk of relegation is now statistically less than 0.01%.

No need ti worry about relegation, we should be trying to figure out if we can make it to Europe some way.
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Hey guy, will we finish above the mags?
What does the math say?
 
Chasing Europe is a bit of a fallacy imo. Unless its the established champions league teams like arsenal/ man city with enormous squads, it just seems to derail everyone else. Look at palace and forest this year. I remember a few years back it was almost guaranteed that teams who'd played in Europe on a Thursday night would get beaten on the sunday.
 
Nicky Winterwasp said:
Chasing Europe is a bit of a fallacy imo. Unless its the established champions league teams like arsenal/ man city with enormous squads, it just seems to derail everyone else. Look at palace and forest this year. I remember a few years back it was almost guaranteed that teams who'd played in Europe on a Thursday night would get beaten on the sunday.
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I just want us in Milan at some point to shut them lot up.

To be honest im uncomfortable with people saying were safe. We arent. We havent played anyone yet.

Yas divvent undahstand man
 
Who do people think will finish 3rd bottom?

West Ham forest or Leeds?

I just can’t see west ham getting out but if Leeds have a couple big injuries e.g. DCL.. I think they could be dragged right back into it.
 
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