Trending almost exactly with Italy

[Old Timer]

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It'll be interesting seeing how we will fair 2 weeks in advance with nothing we can do about it at that point.

So on yesterday’s figures which I think are 14 days on from the second last figure in that table we are only about 50 behind Italy. That makes the next couple of weeks look grim if the social distancing hasn’t worked, remember that 14 days ago they had been in lock down for the same amount of time as we have now.

I hate to think what the numbers would be if we had not moved to social distancing. The one good thing is that the tends of n both Italy and Spain do seem to be showing that they have reached this peak and are starting to come down the other side of the curve.

 

[L18SFC]

So on yesterday’s figures which I think are 14 days on from the second last figure in that table we are only about 50 behind Italy. That makes the next couple of weeks look grim if the social distancing hasn’t worked, remember that 14 days ago they had been in lock down for the same amount of time as we have now.

I hate to think what the numbers would be if we had not moved to social distancing. The one good thing is that the tends of n both Italy and Spain do seem to be showing that they have reached this peak and are starting to come down the other side of the curve.

Anyone have an updated version? As I believe we are ahead of Italy now

 

[SAFCOldie]

Anyone have an updated version? As I believe we are ahead of Italy now

I don't think it matters now, it's probably going to be a lot worse for at least a week, only then can we see the true analysis. Either way Imperial College have put out some report out that seemed to state 0.2 -1.16 of those infected have died...based on at least 10% of the population already having/got past the virus. These are good odds, good stats and shows again it's largely all about protecting the vulnerable and not letting the NHS get swamped. In short prepare for a bad period and then things to level out.

 

[Italian Outcast]

Italy seems to be flattening out - both in number of new deaths and number of new cases - generally similar +/- 10% over past 3-4 days
Lets hope this remains stable over the weekend - if so then we may be at a plateau of some form

 

[dangermows]

Still reckon we will go past Italy.

I don't think it matters now, it's probably going to be a lot worse for at least a week, only then can we see the true analysis. Either way Imperial College have put out some report out that seemed to state 0.2 -1.16 of those infected have died...based on at least 10% of the population already having/got past the virus. These are good odds, good stats and shows again it's largely all about protecting the vulnerable and not letting the NHS get swamped. In short prepare for a bad period and then things to level out.

If the pubs opened tomorrow the knackers would be straight back.

 

[Deleted member 6694]

Anyone have an updated version? As I believe we are ahead of Italy now

I stop looking at this as we could have 500 deaths tomorra or break 1,000 so matching individual figures can be tricky. As you asked, I knocked this up in a few mins but still doesn't mean we'll follow them.

It simply matches the nearest last 3 day UK average to Italy's 3 day average as shown at the bottom of tables. The table on the left matches the deaths overall TOTAL so 15 days behind and the table on the right the DAILY deaths which is less at 13 days behind. However if you look at the left table the total is climbing higher daily as we had 257 more deaths on the day with similar totals! But if you look at the matched daily deaths we're actually 1,225 deaths behind overall

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nugger missed the edit as tried deleting original image. This is an edited version below to show the 3 day average of both daily deaths and daily total. You can see there's a big difference in the other figure if you look at just 3 day average. 89 more deaths in UK in left table or 1,128 more deaths in Italy in the right table

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[SAFCOldie]

If the pubs opened tomorrow the knackers would be straight back.

I've had to get well into the mindset (for others) and that would beggar belief, but suppose many just won't give a shit so suspect you could be right.

 

[Deleted member 6694]

This is an edited version below to show the 3 day average of both daily deaths and daily total. You can see there's a big difference in the other figure if you look at just 3 day average. 189 more DAILY deaths in UK in left table or 1,128 more TOTAL deaths in Italy in the right table.

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Finally got it right

 

[box2box]

Criminal if uk ends up worse off than Italy, given uk had a significantly more notice than Italy.

Let’s remember though that BJ told the nation ‘ the science tells us large gatheringS have less impact on transmission than you would think’ just before Cheltenham. A few a days later, sat indoors to save lives....

 

[SAFCOldie]

Criminal if uk ends up worse off than Italy, given uk had a significantly more notice than Italy.

Let’s remember though that BJ told the nation ‘ the science tells us large gatheringS have less impact on transmission than you would think’ just before Cheltenham. A few a days later, sat indoors to save lives....

It's obviously not about the economy, that has been shat on, more to this than we think IMO.

 

[Kevsgreat]

Criminal if uk ends up worse off than Italy, given uk had a significantly more notice than Italy.

Let’s remember though that BJ told the nation ‘ the science tells us large gatheringS have less impact on transmission than you would think’ just before Cheltenham. A few a days later, sat indoors to save lives....

Yep, and all the shite that came out about Italians being closer with their lifestyle and older demographic. There's always a reason we're a special case and it's always shite.

 

[Silly Point]

It's obviously not about the economy, that has been shat on, more to this than we think IMO.

They're just useless nothing more to it than that imo

 

[SurreyMackem]

Criminal if uk ends up worse off than Italy, given uk had a significantly more notice than Italy.

Let’s remember though that BJ told the nation ‘ the science tells us large gatheringS have less impact on transmission than you would think’ just before Cheltenham. A few a days later, sat indoors to save lives....

Apart from China everyone had the same notice.

 

[Norton]

Apart from China everyone had the same notice.

Then others reacted quicker than the uk to try and prevent the spread. Forgot about Cheltenham. Probably didn't want to cancel it so came out with "large gathering " shite.

 

[box2box]

Apart from China everyone had the same notice.

uk around 2/3 weeks behind Italy in terms of volume of known cases though ...?

 

[PhilSAFC]

Same thing happening everywhere. Spain, the US, France etc etc are gonna be worse than Italy. No ones fault. Government was acting on scientific advice at the time. Playing the blame game achieves nothing.

 

[Deleted member 6694]

uk around 2/3 weeks behind Italy in terms of volume of known cases though ...?

That's simply down to lack of tests from the UK. Italy got a lot of PPE as the EU directed it all there when China offered to help. What would be good to know is the amount of hospital admissions but I don't think this info is public in the UK. Other countries may have it somewhere as other countries share a lot of info compared to the UK from what I've seen.