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This xG nonsense

Sallycinamon said:
I firmly believe that the over-reliance, almost obsession, on stats in today’s game is aiding the decrease in quality and excitement of the game as a spectacle. Play has become too ‘safe’, centre backs have the highest passing numbers, flair players are suppressed and players are scared to shoot. The data boys have taken over the game, and it’s not for the better.
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This is a very different point to whether xG has any use or not

xG can be useful to lots of people working in and following football, but it can also be part of a reliance on data which has impacted the “beauty” of the game
 

The Situation said:
The main reason is because the people that criticise it, just don't understand it.

Same people who hark back to the days of players having a plate of fish and chips and 10 pints the night before a game and when scouting was done on the back of a tab packet.
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whilst I don't disagree, I think a lot of blame can also be put at the feet of those people who hype it up too much, because they also don't understand it. Some of the resistance to understanding how xG can help surely comes from people seeing how much it is sometimes overblown by idiots, and they just react to that.
 
chriswallace85 said:
Anyone clock Chelsea's xg over two legs vs PSG? It was high. Higher than PSG's.

Got beat 8-2.
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Got to take your chances. XG doesn’t change that.
King for a Day... said:
whilst I don't disagree, I think a lot of blame can also be put at the feet of those people who hype it up too much, because they also don't understand it. Some of the resistance to understanding how xG can help surely comes from people seeing how much it is sometimes overblown by idiots, and they just react to that.
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Fair
Sallycinamon said:
That doesn’t answer the question!

Stats have always existed, it’s their relevance which I’m questioning, in-game stats in particular. Their importance within the game has definitely increased over the last 10 years, almost to the point that many are blinded by stats e.g. player a has scored more than player b, so player a is better, player c has more assists than player d, so player c is more creative.

What we’ve ended up with is a game taken over by stats, which has led to a boring spectacle. Just because every club uses them and they have a new-found importance, it doesn’t mean it’s for the better.
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I don’t think it’s data and stats that have made the game less exciting, that certainly hasn’t happened in other, even more stat-obsessed sports like NFL or cricket.

It’s a false correlation. Tactical fads and fashions post-Guardiola are the main culprit.
 
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gatopreto said:
It's a good tool for betting and a performance indicator.
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This is the one main area that I agree, it’s useful. Bloom at Brighton and Benham at Brentford both used it heavily in the betting industry and subsequently in football.
Comeback_Kenwyne said:
Got to take your chances. XG doesn’t change that.


Fair


I don’t think it’s data and stats that have made the game less exciting, that certainly hasn’t happened in other, even more stat-obsessed sports like NFL or cricket.

It’s a false correlation. Tactical fads and fashions post-Guardiola are the main culprit.
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But the tactical fads and Guardiola’s ideology are all based on stats, such as overload stats and probability of success in different scenarios.

The reason I don’t think stats have made NFL any less exciting is because it’s virtually impossible to make NFL any less exciting!!
rentaghost said:
In my opinion the reason results have worsened is not down to the inevitability of XG. I think its more because of AFCON at first and then our best players by an absolute mile all being out of the team at the same time.
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Firmly believe this aswell. Sunderland’s xG hasn’t been great all season, we all know the team don’t create loads of chances, but not creating chances at one end doesn’t affect your defensive ability. First 5 months of the season they conceded 3 goals in a game once, the 2 months since they’ve conceded 3 goals in a game 4 times - primarily down to player unavailability and the breaking up of a solid defensive unit.
 
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The Situation said:
That has been the case all season mind, but when it was pointed out that it would eventually cause an issue, it was dismissed with the usual "xG is a load of shite" from the same posters as always.

The two teams that have vastly outperformed their xG for long spells this season have been us and Villa.

Don't get me wrong, both teams have had an excellent season and I don't care how we stay up so it's not a complaint, but it's no coincidence at all that both teams are now bang into a lengthy run of relatively poor form.

It is however a longer term concern as there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG across a full season and how much they then drop off the following season when the numbers revert.

We've realistically been safe for months now but on the other side of the coin if you turned even 2 of 10 wins into defeats (which is a reasonable assumption based on xG) we'd be on 34 points and getting nervous ahead of the last 8 games.

That's how fine the margins are.
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My point is .. I don’t need XG bllx to tell
Me.

You can see if with your own eyes if you have any knowledge
 
Sallycinamon said:
This is the one main area that I agree, it’s useful. Bloom at Brighton and Benham at Brentford both used it heavily in the betting industry and subsequently in football.

But the tactical fads and Guardiola’s ideology are all based on stats, such as overload stats and probability of success in different scenarios.

The reason I don’t think stats have made NFL any less exciting is because it’s virtually impossible to make NFL any less exciting!!

Firmly believe this aswell. Sunderland’s xG hasn’t been great all season, we all know the team don’t create loads of chances, but not creating chances at one end doesn’t affect your defensive ability. First 5 months of the season they conceded 3 goals in a game once, the 2 months since they’ve conceded 3 goals in a game 4 times - primarily down to player unavailability and the breaking up of a solid defensive unit.
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Guardiola was coaching long before the big data revolution in sports.
 
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The only thing that matters is the score, look at this from today. Looking at that, Chelsea had more xg(slightly), had the most possession, nearly twice as many passes in the final third(who cares about that anyway). 3-0 Everton
 
League Wan said:
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The only thing that matters is the score, look at this from today. Looking at that, Chelsea had more xg(slightly), had the most possession, nearly twice as many passes in the final third(who cares about that anyway). 3-0 Everton
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It shows the value of a good keeper. Pickford does a Pickford at one end. Chelsea's keeper spoons one in two minutes later. The momentum of the game changes.
 
League Wan said:
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The only thing that matters is the score, look at this from today. Looking at that, Chelsea had more xg(slightly), had the most possession, nearly twice as many passes in the final third(who cares about that anyway). 3-0 Everton
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This is precisely why XG is so useful! One scoreline just comes down to who takes their chances on the day - and that's highly influenced by luck/randomness. If you want to know which is the better team (which is more likely to finish higher up the table) then out of all those stats the scoreline is the one that gives you the least information. In statistical terms it's mostly noise. XG on the other is mostly (not all, it's not perfect) signal - telling you which team is actually the strongest.
 
League Wan said:
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The only thing that matters is the score, look at this from today. Looking at that, Chelsea had more xg(slightly), had the most possession, nearly twice as many passes in the final third(who cares about that anyway). 3-0 Everton
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Another one who doesn't get it.
 
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