This xG nonsense

[nelford_safc]

4 wins in 14 now.

16th in the form table over the last 10 games.

18th in the form table over the last 6 games.

Again, obviously a superb season regardless considering we were massive odds-on to go down before a ball was kicked, but xG proving once again not to be the "nonsense" so many think it is.

It has been coming for quite a while.

Looking ahead, one concerning aspect is that there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG and how much they struggle the following season.

Again whilst it has been a superb season, it would have only taken a couple of games we got something from in spite of our xG performance to go the other way and we'd be very nervous going into the last 8.

Fine margins.

Any thoughts, @jcrossan?

I don’t know why xG is laughed off as much as it is. We’ve had some of the lowest xG all season long and we were mainly winning by 1 goal and now we’ve stopped scoring from open play full stop. There’s clearly something in it regardless of if people think it’s stupid or not.

 

[The Situation]

I don’t know why xG is laughed off as much as it is. We’ve had some of the lowest xG all season long and we were mainly winning by 1 goal and now we’ve stopped scoring from open play full stop. There’s clearly something in it regardless of if people think it’s stupid or not.

The main reason is because the people that criticise it, just don't understand it.

Same people who hark back to the days of players having a plate of fish and chips and 10 pints the night before a game and when scouting was done on the back of a tab packet.

 

[The Situation]

We create fuck all. Simple as that

That has been the case all season mind, but when it was pointed out that it would eventually cause an issue, it was dismissed with the usual "xG is a load of shite" from the same posters as always.

The two teams that have vastly outperformed their xG for long spells this season have been us and Villa.

Don't get me wrong, both teams have had an excellent season and I don't care how we stay up so it's not a complaint, but it's no coincidence at all that both teams are now bang into a lengthy run of relatively poor form.

It is however a longer term concern as there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG across a full season and how much they then drop off the following season when the numbers revert.

We've realistically been safe for months now but on the other side of the coin if you turned even 2 of 10 wins into defeats (which is a reasonable assumption based on xG) we'd be on 34 points and getting nervous ahead of the last 8 games.

That's how fine the margins are.

 

[Agnew Dawn Agnew Day]

XG to look at what being going on in games already played.. fine.

XG to predict how teams will fare next season .. not buying into that one bit because there's something called the transfer window which we are pretty good at and will surely improve our attaching options in the summer.

It is however a longer term concern as there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG across a full season and how much they then drop off the following season when the numbers revert.

We've realistically been safe for months now but on the other side of the coin if you turned even 2 of 10 wins into defeats (which is a reasonable assumption based on xG) we'd be on 34 points and getting nervous ahead of the last 8 games.

That's how fine the margins are.

You could just as easily hypothetically turn a few of our draws or loses into win and we're only a few points behind Champions League place in 5th.
Isidor 1 on 1 v keeper against Liverpool in the final minute..
If Le Fee smashes his penalty against Brentford instead of the failed Penaka..
If Mundle scores against Fulham when clean through with just the keeper to beat..
If we take one of our countless chances against Brighton home and away..

The margins being fine works for being higher up as well as down

 

[Sallycinamon]

That has been the case all season mind, but when it was pointed out that it would eventually cause an issue, it was dismissed with the usual "xG is a load of shite" from the same posters as always.

The two teams that have vastly outperformed their xG for long spells this season have been us and Villa.

Don't get me wrong, both teams have had an excellent season and I don't care how we stay up so it's not a complaint, but it's no coincidence at all that both teams are now bang into a lengthy run of relatively poor form.

It is however a longer term concern as there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG across a full season and how much they then drop off the following season when the numbers revert.

We've realistically been safe for months now but on the other side of the coin if you turned even 2 of 10 wins into defeats (which is a reasonable assumption based on xG) we'd be on 34 points and getting nervous ahead of the last 8 games.

That's how fine the margins are.

Or perhaps both Sunderland’s and Villa’s poor run of form might have something to do with injuries to key players…

I fully understand xG, just don’t really see the point of it. It’s just another invented stat, along with assists and goal contributions, to help people who don’t understand the game form an opinion. Far too much relevance placed on all 3 these days.

 

[me is back]

Football is impossible to predict. But More often than not, teams outperforming xg will see their form drop.

It’s an imperfect but useful metric that basically just puts into numbers what our eyes tell us - we don’t create enough good chances

 

[MadMackem7]

Or perhaps both Sunderland’s and Villa’s poor run of form might have something to do with injuries to key players…

I fully understand xG, just don’t really see the point of it. It’s just another invented stat, along with assists and goal contributions, to help people who don’t understand the game form an opinion. Far too much relevance placed on all 3 these days.

Villas poor run of form and our poor run of form sees us struggling to score because we were both outperforming xG

 

[Honess10]

I don’t know why xG is laughed off as much as it is. We’ve had some of the lowest xG all season long and we were mainly winning by 1 goal and now we’ve stopped scoring from open play full stop. There’s clearly something in it regardless of if people think it’s stupid or not.

People who dismiss it as nonsense are usually the nuggets from the bottom set at school the type who can’t understand despite a run of blacks at the casino it isn’t ‘karrupshon’ and shit like that does happen despite the odds been 50/50 (less the 0) It’s basically used by bookies to set odds so they’re hardly likely to risk losing money off the back of it

It’s not without flaws like in terms of how it’s calculated but generally over a long period of time it is proved correct

 

[Sallycinamon]

Villas poor run of form and our poor run of form sees us struggling to score because we were both outperforming xG

That’s your interpretation. Is it just coincidence that both teams are missing important players through injury? Do you think if Brobbey, Xhaka, Mukiele, Reinildo and Roefs had been available throughout that results would have been better?

Football is impossible to predict. But More often than not, teams outperforming xg will see their form drop.

It’s an imperfect but useful metric that basically just puts into numbers what our eyes tell us - we don’t create enough good chances

What makes you say it’s useful? Who’s it useful to?

 

[tunstallhill]

Or perhaps both Sunderland’s and Villa’s poor run of form might have something to do with injuries to key players…

I fully understand xG, just don’t really see the point of it. It’s just another invented stat, along with assists and goal contributions, to help people who don’t understand the game form an opinion. Far too much relevance placed on all 3 these days.

its a stat, thats it

if you saw some post-game stats that said one team had 90% possession, 25 shots on target, 13 corners etc.. and the other team had none, you'd get an idea of how the game went.

but the end result could well be 1-0 to the team with 10% possession and they take the three points.

if your team has a very low xG all season, over say 30 games, then its pretty safe to say that they don't create a lot of chances

 

[yfc54]

It'll be an interesting calculation for this weekends game. They rarely keep a clean sheet and we can't seem to score.

 

[MadMackem7]

That’s your interpretation. Is it just coincidence that both teams are missing important players through injury? Do you think if Brobbey, Xhaka, Mukiele, Reinildo and Roefs had been available throughout that results would have been better?

What makes you say it’s useful? Who’s it useful to?

Well it’s used in pretty much every football club

 

[Sallycinamon]

Well it’s used in pretty much every football club

That doesn’t answer the question!

its a stat, thats it

if you saw some post-game stats that said one team had 90% possession, 25 shots on target, 13 corners etc.. and the other team had none, you'd get an idea of how the game went.

but the end result could well be 1-0 to the team with 10% possession and they take the three points.

if your team has a very low xG all season, over say 30 games, then its pretty safe to say that they don't create a lot of chances

Stats have always existed, it’s their relevance which I’m questioning, in-game stats in particular. Their importance within the game has definitely increased over the last 10 years, almost to the point that many are blinded by stats e.g. player a has scored more than player b, so player a is better, player c has more assists than player d, so player c is more creative.

What we’ve ended up with is a game taken over by stats, which has led to a boring spectacle. Just because every club uses them and they have a new-found importance, it doesn’t mean it’s for the better.

 

[me is back]

That doesn’t answer the question!

Stats have always existed, it’s their relevance which I’m questioning, in-game stats in particular. Their importance within the game has definitely increased over the last 10 years, almost to the point that many are blinded by stats e.g. player a has scored more than player b, so player a is better, player c has more assists than player d, so player c is more creative.

What we’ve ended up with is a game taken over by stats, which has led to a boring spectacle. Just because every club uses them and they have a new-found importance, it doesn’t mean it’s for the better.

Coaches. Analysts. Recruiters. People on message boards.

Just because you don’t find it useful doesn’t mean others don’t use it. It’s not magic, it’s not perfect, it’s just a way of counting how many chances a team has and scoring by how good a chance is. Just a better/different metric than “shots” or “shots on target”. I don’t know why people get so passionate or angry about it.

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[tunstallhill]

That doesn’t answer the question!

Stats have always existed, it’s their relevance which I’m questioning, in-game stats in particular. Their importance within the game has definitely increased over the last 10 years, almost to the point that many are blinded by stats e.g. player a has scored more than player b, so player a is better, player c has more assists than player d, so player c is more creative.

What we’ve ended up with is a game taken over by stats, which has led to a boring spectacle. Just because every club uses them and they have a new-found importance, it doesn’t mean it’s for the better.

i don't disagree with that

you said ''I fully understand xG, just don’t really see the point of it. It’s just another invented stat''

there isn't really a point to any stats in the sense that the only stat that matters in the full time score

but if the stats this weekend read:

distance covered : Xhaka 15km, Tonali 5km
passes completed: Xhaka 38, Tonali 12
tackles made: Xhaka 22, Tonali 2
fouls commited: Xhaka 1, Tonali 7
shots on target: Xhaka 4, Tonali 0

who would you say had the better game in all probability, if you didnt watch a minute of it?

 

[Sallycinamon]

Coaches. Analysts. Recruiters. People on message boards.

Just because you don’t find it useful doesn’t mean others don’t use it. It’s not magic, it’s not perfect, it’s just a way of counting how many chances a team has and scoring by how good a chance is. Just a better/different metric than “shots” or “shots on target”. I don’t know why people get so passionate or angry about it.

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I know analysts use it. Not so sure about the other 3 groups mentioned.

I’m not passionate or angry about it btw, it’s merely a debate on its merits.

i don't disagree with that

you said ''I fully understand xG, just don’t really see the point of it. It’s just another invented stat''

there isn't really a point to any stats in the sense that the only stat that matters in the full time score

but if the stats this weekend read:

distance covered : Xhaka 15km, Tonali 5km
passes completed: Xhaka 38, Tonali 12
tackles made: Xhaka 22, Tonali 2
fouls commited: Xhaka 1, Tonali 7
shots on target: Xhaka 4, Tonali 0

who would you say had the better game in all probability, if you didnt watch a minute of it?

Most people would say Xhaka, simply because his numbers are bigger. It doesn’t mean he did though - hence why I say people are often blinded by stats. Every single one of those metrics can be made to look different with context. You’ll never beat watching a game and forming opinion based on your experience of watching games. Stats enable those with a poor understanding of football form an opinion.

 

[tunstallhill]

Most people would say Xhaka, simply because his numbers are bigger. It doesn’t mean he did though - hence why I say people are often blinded by stats. Every single one of those metrics can be made to look different with context. You’ll never beat watching a game and forming opinion based on your experience of watching games. Stats enable those with a poor understanding of football form an opinion.

i don't disagree with that either.

buts its still a metric that can be used successfully. if those stats i posted for xhaka and tonali were applied to two unknown players in a european league, and the stats were very similar every game over a 38 game season, it would be very safe to conclude that player A is a considerably better player than player B, without having to watch them play

that is probably useful to scouts and coaches in deciding who they sign and how they coach them for specific teams and specific systems etc...

but for the armchair fan, it doesn't really mean anything other than some boring talking point to sound nerdy

 

[Sallycinamon]

i don't disagree with that either.

buts its still a metric that can be used successfully. if those stats i posted for xhaka and tonali were applied to two unknown players in a european league, and the stats were very similar every game over a 38 game season, it would be very safe to conclude that player A is a considerably better player than player B, without having to watch them play

that is probably useful to scouts and coaches in deciding who they sign and how they coach them for specific teams and specific systems etc...

but for the armchair fan, it doesn't really mean anything other than some boring talking point to sound nerdy

I agree, it can give recruitment teams a starting point to identify unknown talent, but the primary factor regarding signings will undoubtedly be the age old method of scouting them, forming an opinion based on watching them play. They may well see a whole different player to the one they were expecting to see.

The vast majority of, if not all, clubs these days use stats to aid recruitment and people point to this as the reason why stats are good and meaningful. They often point to success stories like Brighton and Brentford as proof that analytics are the way forward. But there’s just as many clubs failing using stats-based data, as there are succeeding.

I firmly believe that the over-reliance, almost obsession, on stats in today’s game is aiding the decrease in quality and excitement of the game as a spectacle. Play has become too ‘safe’, centre backs have the highest passing numbers, flair players are suppressed and players are scared to shoot. The data boys have taken over the game, and it’s not for the better.

 

[tunstallhill]

I agree, it can give recruitment teams a starting point to identify unknown talent, but the primary factor regarding signings will undoubtedly be the age old method of scouting them, forming an opinion based on watching them play. They may well see a whole different player to the one they were expecting to see.

The vast majority of, if not all, clubs these days use stats to aid recruitment and people point to this as the reason why stats are good and meaningful. They often point to success stories like Brighton and Brentford as proof that analytics are the way forward. But there’s just as many clubs failing using stats-based data, as there are succeeding.

I firmly believe that the over-reliance, almost obsession, on stats in today’s game is aiding the decrease in quality and excitement of the game as a spectacle. Play has become too ‘safe’, centre backs have the highest passing numbers, flair players are suppressed and players are scared to shoot. The data boys have taken over the game, and it’s not for the better.

100% it has.

players wanting better stats for ground covered and passes completed, whilst just running around aimlessly and passing to their centre back every time they get the ball.

but, the other side of that is... and to go back to the point of the thread:

if sunderland played the first 10 games next season and our xG was averaging very low like 0.1 , and our xG against was averaging very high like 2.3 .... BUT we'd won every game, you'd be very happy with the league position but it would be clear to see from those stats that without every watching any of the games, we were living a charmed life. and eventually you either change those stats or it will catch up with you.

 

[rentaghost]

That has been the case all season mind, but when it was pointed out that it would eventually cause an issue, it was dismissed with the usual "xG is a load of shite" from the same posters as always.

The two teams that have vastly outperformed their xG for long spells this season have been us and Villa.

Don't get me wrong, both teams have had an excellent season and I don't care how we stay up so it's not a complaint, but it's no coincidence at all that both teams are now bang into a lengthy run of relatively poor form.

It is however a longer term concern as there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG across a full season and how much they then drop off the following season when the numbers revert.

We've realistically been safe for months now but on the other side of the coin if you turned even 2 of 10 wins into defeats (which is a reasonable assumption based on xG) we'd be on 34 points and getting nervous ahead of the last 8 games.

That's how fine the margins are.

In my opinion the reason results have worsened is not down to the inevitability of XG. I think its more because of AFCON at first and then our best players by an absolute mile all being out of the team at the same time.