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This xG nonsense

Undercover said:
This one has Overall, Home and Away. The overall one has Sunderland, Burnley and West Ham in the bottom three as does the home one, the away one has Sunderland, Burnley and Wolves in the bottom three. It is kind of strange how these tables keep putting you in the same bottom three as genuine bottom three teams, are you quite sure you have not been a bit lucky this season ?

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Fuck me. You’re absolutely rattled by us 😂😂
 

jcrossan said:
If the Premier league table was set according to this xG silliness, that pundits are always mentioning and we are supposed to take seriously, we would be 4th bottom, just ahead of Aston Villa who would be 16th.

Thankfully we play on grass and not inside a computer program.
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Its an interesting stat when you look into it and use it with a combination of other stats. Xg in 1 game is meaningless but in a few games it can show trends. But its only one stat and people go over the top with it as its not a perfect system, there are some players where it is difficult to apply it to just for what they can do at odd angles.

As for us(and Aston Villa) over performing Xg, it could be a problem going forward. But there is no reason why we both cant keep this up. We could do with a goal poacher to stick away the easy chances. But we are not creating them and poachers are few and far between.
 
chunkyshanhawk53 said:
People get way too upset about it. It’s just another stat like corners, shots, possession.

It’s an indicator, and can be misleading sometimes. But I don’t get why people get so angry about it
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Venn diagram of xG ragers and cash is king mob would be interesting.
Undercover said:
This one has Overall, Home and Away. The overall one has Sunderland, Burnley and West Ham in the bottom three as does the home one, the away one has Sunderland, Burnley and Wolves in the bottom three. It is kind of strange how these tables keep putting you in the same bottom three as genuine bottom three teams, are you quite sure you have not been a bit lucky this season ?

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I took the all important stat of 7th in the league from that marra.
 
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Undercover said:
Yep Bournemouth at home and Fulham away 3 points thrown away would be level with Mags 10 points clear of West Ham without those two injury time goals.:(
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If we had won all our games we’d be top of the league. Every club has a sob story about dropping points. If we had played Leeds 2 weeks ago, we would have won.
 
Stella Spark said:
What counts as a good chance?

A ball through to a player in the box, who shoots and scores, is surely a "good chance"
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I don't know what MOTD use as a good chance. Presumably based on xG.

For lay people it's subjective. I would say it was absolutely nowhere near a good chance. You think it was.

Whether the goal is scored or not is completely irrelevant to me. You see players score from the halfway line. The fact it goes in does not make it a good chance. It's just great skill from the player.
 
Binxy said:
Who decides what score a chance gets?
I mean is there an independent panel that does every game?
🤷‍♂️
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It's based on the data of over 1 million past shots. Yet bizarrely some on this thread no better and believe chances with an xG of 0.1 are actually "virtually a guaranteed goal" 😅.

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The most effective measurement of xG is that people who deride it as a load of shite can be identified as absolute f***ing idiots with 100% accuracy.
 
Undercover said:
This one has Overall, Home and Away. The overall one has Sunderland, Burnley and West Ham in the bottom three as does the home one, the away one has Sunderland, Burnley and Wolves in the bottom three. It is kind of strange how these tables keep putting you in the same bottom three as genuine bottom three teams, are you quite sure you have not been a bit lucky this season ?

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Click to expand...
I prefer to look at the League Table marra, tells me everything I need to know...you gonna start a pettishun like? 🤡
 
Binxy said:
Who decides what score a chance gets?
I mean is there an independent panel that does every game?
🤷‍♂️
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It is literally 'from a data set of X number of past shots taken from this position, X percentage were scored'.

Some models take into account the position of the keeper and defenders, what kind of shot it was (a header from 12 yards out is harder to score than a shot) etc.

People lose their shit over it but all it says is '22% of shots similar to Brobbey's resulted in a goal'. Nothing more.

How people interpret that is up to them, and I agree xG league tables are nonsense. Nobody with a brain should automatically just think high xG = good, low xG = shit. Game state makes a big difference - teams who go ahead early will naturally sit back more for longer and invite more pressure, teams who are chasing will naturally take more shots.
 
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