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This xG nonsense


John Byrne 92Crew said:
I agree with you in one way, a lot of our wins have been tight games and could potentially have gone either way. I think that's where mentality comes into it though, something that xg can't measure.

We've scored important last minute goals on more than one occasion this season, whereas you have done the polar opposite and thrown points away by letting them in. We also have good stats in terms of points won from losing positions.

Tbf you do seem to have sorted out this early season weak mentality and are looking like you're getting used to the Premier League 👍
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Yep Bournemouth at home and Fulham away 3 points thrown away would be level with Mags 10 points clear of West Ham without those two injury time goals.:(
 
Undercover said:
Yep Bournemouth at home and Fulham away 3 points thrown away would be level with Mags 10 points clear of West Ham without those two injury time goals.:(
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Yeah fine margins make all the difference, ours v Brentford, Chelsea and Arsenal got us 5 points. Ah Bournemouth, we were two nil down to them and still won 😄
 
As said, it’s one indicator. We haven’t really pummelled any team all season in terms of creating great chance after great chance, so xG is low, but we’ve controlled games well and conceded a ridiculously low number of goals for a newly promoted side.
 
jcrossan said:
If the Premier league table was set according to this xG silliness, that pundits are always mentioning and we are supposed to take seriously, we would be 4th bottom, just ahead of Aston Villa who would be 16th.

Thankfully we play on grass and not inside a computer program.
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We’d be fifth bottom if the table was set according to G, a statistic I have a lot more time for as it’s based on a hard fact. But it isn’t. So we aren’t.
 
MiddleAgedMan said:
But that probably was our only two good chances? Think of any others?

Adingra was in no way "a good chance".

We get this on these threads at all as of a lay person knows better than people who have dedicated research in to what is really a good chance.

If they were all excellent chances why didn't we score them all? Clue- because they weren't as good as you may think.
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Brobbey was one on one with the goalie with the ball sat on his better foot man :lol:
 
We need to start shooting from 35 yards out more regularly, that will get our xg up.
We might not score but if we have 20 pot shots and an xg of 2 people will think we're git class.
 
I think its worthwhile pointing out its not a ‘stat’ using the strictest definition, like, for instance, a corner or a goal. The latter are objective matters of fact. xG includes within it a subjective supposition of what should or shouldnt have been scored, and herein lies the issue of interpretation and how it should it be used.
 
HarrogateMackem said:
Couldn’t agree more. they never take into account the defensive equivalent, which is obviously as important.
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They do there is also XGA (expected goals against)

We should have conceded more and scored less than we have. According to the stat.

We're outperforming both in a positive way.

The ones saying it's a load of shite while it's something all clubs look af.

It's not a perfect thing but it's still a stat like any other you can look at.
 
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I'm sure all Newcastle fans will sleep well in knowledge that there is a stat that proves Sunderland are shite. I've been reliably informed that the table is a load of bollocks and weez just getting warmed up like.
 
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