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The European Mini-league

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DonaldDownTheWing

Striker
The way I see it, the top 5 are the top 5 and that won’t change between now and the end of the season.

What’s really up for grabs is the “minor” European places, likely 6th, 7th & 8th. This is the state of play currently -

Chelsea - 48pts | +12
Brentford - 47pts | +4
Everton - 47pts | +2
Brighton - 46pts | +6
Sunderland - 46pts | -3
Bournemouth - 45pts | -1
Fulham - 44pts | -3
Palace - 42pts | -1
Newcastle - 42pts | -2

That’s 9 teams vying for 3 spaces in Europe. Form wise, everything is covered from really to poor to excellent form over the last 5 PL games.

Excellent - Brighton (W4, L1).
Good - Everton (W3,D1,L1). Sunderland (W3,D1,L1). Palace (W3,L1,D1).
Okay - Brentford (W1,D4). Bournemouth (W1,D4). Fulham (W2,D1,L2).
Poor - Chelsea (W1, L4). Newcastle (W2,D0,L3).

Momentum will play a massive part going into the last 6 games of the season. Brentford, for example, have a decent points return from their last 5, but their last win was on the 28th February, against Burnley.

Chelsea look dreadful under LinkedIn Liam and he’s not gotten a tune out of them.

Everton are going well under Moyes and big wins over Newcastle & Chelsea will have them full of confidence. Merseyside derby next, which would normally be an easy 3 points for Liverpool but I’m not so sure that’ll happen this time.

Bournemouth are a good footballing side but the news Ariola is leaving at the end of the season may knock them off course a bit.

Brighton are flying, it’s actually 5 wins in 6 for them and only Arsenal have stopped them recently. They could afford to drop off slightly from that form and possibly still get Europe.

We’ve bounced back well from 3 consecutive home defeats and that ties in with getting key players back from injury. Confidence in the team should be high at the moment.

Fulham have had some poor results recently, losing to West Ham and failing to beat Forest in their last 5. They’re stuttering a bit.

Palace are going well, no doubt buoyed by their European form. They might end up focussing on Europe more than the PL, if it looks like that’s their best chance at another season of European football.

Newcastle are a strange team. Good wins vs Man U with 10 men, and away at Chelsea, are undermined by throwing 1-0 leads away against us & Palace.

I’m looking forward to the run-in, our best chance at European football in 25 years and we’ve as good a chance as anyone.

My guess at the final mini table is this, but wouldn’t be surprised if anyone managed the top 3 spaces.

6th - Brighton
7th - Everton
8th - Sunderland
9th - Bournemouth
10th - Brentford
11th - Chelsea
12th - Fulham
13th - Palace
14th - Newcastle.
 

DonaldDownTheWing said:
The way I see it, the top 5 are the top 5 and that won’t change between now and the end of the season.

What’s really up for grabs is the “minor” European places, likely 6th, 7th & 8th. This is the state of play currently -

Chelsea - 48pts | +12
Brentford - 47pts | +4
Everton - 47pts | +2
Brighton - 46pts | +6
Sunderland - 46pts | -3
Bournemouth - 45pts | -1
Fulham - 44pts | -3
Palace - 42pts | -1
Newcastle - 42pts | -2

That’s 9 teams vying for 3 spaces in Europe. Form wise, everything is covered from really to poor to excellent form over the last 5 PL games.

Excellent - Brighton (W4, L1).
Good - Everton (W3,D1,L1). Sunderland (W3,D1,L1). Palace (W3,L1,D1).
Okay - Brentford (W1,D4). Bournemouth (W1,D4). Fulham (W2,D1,L2).
Poor - Chelsea (W1, L4). Newcastle (W2,D0,L3).

Momentum will play a massive part going into the last 6 games of the season. Brentford, for example, have a decent points return from their last 5, but their last win was on the 28th February, against Burnley.

Chelsea look dreadful under LinkedIn Liam and he’s not gotten a tune out of them.

Everton are going well under Moyes and big wins over Newcastle & Chelsea will have them full of confidence. Merseyside derby next, which would normally be an easy 3 points for Liverpool but I’m not so sure that’ll happen this time.

Bournemouth are a good footballing side but the news Ariola is leaving at the end of the season may knock them off course a bit.

Brighton are flying, it’s actually 5 wins in 6 for them and only Arsenal have stopped them recently. They could afford to drop off slightly from that form and possibly still get Europe.

We’ve bounced back well from 3 consecutive home defeats and that ties in with getting key players back from injury. Confidence in the team should be high at the moment.

Fulham have had some poor results recently, losing to West Ham and failing to beat Forest in their last 5. They’re stuttering a bit.

Palace are going well, no doubt buoyed by their European form. They might end up focussing on Europe more than the PL, if it looks like that’s their best chance at another season of European football.

Newcastle are a strange team. Good wins vs Man U with 10 men, and away at Chelsea, are undermined by throwing 1-0 leads away against us & Palace.

I’m looking forward to the run-in, our best chance at European football in 25 years and we’ve as good a chance as anyone.

My guess at the final mini table is this, but wouldn’t be surprised if anyone managed the top 3 spaces.

6th - Brighton
7th - Everton
8th - Sunderland
9th - Bournemouth
10th - Brentford
11th - Chelsea
12th - Fulham
13th - Palace
14th - Newcastle.
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There's only 5 points between Everton in 8th and Liverpool in 5th, and they play each other on Sunday
 
Very good post.

I cannot understand the negativity when it comes to the idea of us qualifying for Europe. I have faith in our recruitment to do what is needed to keep us competitive if we were to be playing extra games.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we go into our final home game against Chelsea knowing a win would see us enter the Conference League.

What an occasion that would be man.
 
European places could potentially go down to goal difference the way things are looking, and we are a ways behind most in that mini league unfortunately. I want to see us go for it but I think to get it, we will likely need to beat Everton away from home to stand much of a chance of getting Top 8.

There is a chance that it goes down to 9th again like last season but I don't know the permutations behind that, in which case I think we stand a decent chance.
 
Ongo Baglogian said:
According to opta we have a 1.4% chance of getting to the champions league :lol: . It’s happening.
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They had us at 0.1% of top 5 before the season started, glad to see they have a bit more confidence in us now. Just for reference they had us as a 66% chance of us being relegated on 6th August going off the bbc article I’ve found.
 
Villa a straight after Europe Thursday timing good
Forest h winnable
Wolves a winnable
Man U h hit & miss atm
Everton a strange home form
Chelsea h could be on the beach / winner takes all

Now where’s my passport?
 
Select coaches said:
Villa a straight after Europe Thursday timing good
Forest h winnable
Wolves a winnable
Man U h hit & miss atm
Everton a strange home form
Chelsea h could be on the beach / winner takes all

Now where’s my passport?
Click to expand...

Dare to dream!

What a position to be in though. We are under no real pressure and have the opportunity to qualify for Europe. Who would have thought.
 
Find it incredible that we’re 2 points behind Chelsea at this stage of the season. They’ve got some unbelievable talent in their squad
 
Bamber said:
Conference league we want innit. More forgiving so we can rotate when we play whoever finished 6th in the swiss league on Thursday, full strength at the weekend in the Prem.

We’ll win the fucka aswell
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This is why I wasn’t too disappointed about the mags getting in the CL. They’d have to do something amazing to win that.

They’d have a good chance in the europa or conference so bit of a blessing they jumped over them. Yeah they’re second rate trophies these days but so is the carabao and they’ve never shut up about that.
 
Lagger said:
Find it incredible that we’re 2 points behind Chelsea at this stage of the season. They’ve got some unbelievable talent in their squad
Click to expand...

Obviously we've been gone for so long, I haven't really paid much attention to actual league tables and points between teams other than to see who's going down and who's winning the league. Is it usually this tight? Almost half the league with a chance at European football in mid-April seems mental.
 
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