Hospital Admissions by Age Group

L

Locke's SAFC

Striker
The below figures pulled direct from ONS website.

What's most important is which age groups are being admitted into hospital, as it gives us an indication of whether or not they are likely to make it through and what that means for loss of life in the coming weeks.

As you can see, under 50s not a great deal of change over a 7 week period; over 50s is what is driving increased hospital admissions and you can only assume that there will be a higher proportion not making it through and the death toll increasing.

A few people have been posting models, and the assumptions underpinning these models are being proven to be wide of the mark. At least to date, anyway.

I'm aware that there are many people on here who just don't care and so this post isn't for them. It's for anyone that doesn't have a problem following what has been advised but isn't necessarily aware of the extent of the problem we currently face and may think again.


Hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 (rates per 100,000 people)
Age \ Week ending
18-Jul​
25-Jul​
01-Aug​
08-Aug​
15-Aug​
22-Aug​
29-Aug​
05-Sep​
0 to 43.043.92
3.27​
3.97​
3.86​
3.61​
4.19​
3.85​
5 to 141.110.81
1.09​
0.90​
1.19​
1.28​
0.95​
1.17​
15 to 244.535.29
4.63​
4.72​
4.18​
4.14​
3.61​
2.93​
25 to 447.248.40
7.74​
6.62​
6.46​
6.51​
6.10​
5.42​
45 to 545.717.03
7.02​
6.12​
6.20​
6.17​
6.65​
6.02​
55 to 645.957.92
8.37​
6.34​
7.37​
9.12​
8.42​
8.63​
65 to 746.708.38
8.50​
9.21​
9.15​
11.39​
10.68​
11.56​
75 to 8411.5013.96
14.70​
16.29​
19.29​
22.51​
21.29​
22.05​
85+19.6124.28
25.92​
26.16​
30.39​
37.26​
36.62​
36.18​
 


Locke's SAFC said:
The below figures pulled direct from ONS website.

What's most important is which age groups are being admitted into hospital, as it gives us an indication of whether or not they are likely to make it through and what that means for loss of life in the coming weeks.

As you can see, under 50s not a great deal of change over a 7 week period; over 50s is what is driving increased hospital admissions and you can only assume that there will be a higher proportion not making it through and the death toll increasing.

A few people have been posting models, and the assumptions underpinning these models are being proven to be wide of the mark. At least to date, anyway.

I'm aware that there are many people on here who just don't care and so this post isn't for them. It's for anyone that doesn't have a problem following what has been advised but isn't necessarily aware of the extent of the problem we currently face and may think again.


Hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 (rates per 100,000 people)
Age \ Week ending
18-Jul​
25-Jul​
01-Aug​
08-Aug​
15-Aug​
22-Aug​
29-Aug​
05-Sep​
0 to 43.043.92
3.27​
3.97​
3.86​
3.61​
4.19​
3.85​
5 to 141.110.81
1.09​
0.90​
1.19​
1.28​
0.95​
1.17​
15 to 244.535.29
4.63​
4.72​
4.18​
4.14​
3.61​
2.93​
25 to 447.248.40
7.74​
6.62​
6.46​
6.51​
6.10​
5.42​
45 to 545.717.03
7.02​
6.12​
6.20​
6.17​
6.65​
6.02​
55 to 645.957.92
8.37​
6.34​
7.37​
9.12​
8.42​
8.63​
65 to 746.708.38
8.50​
9.21​
9.15​
11.39​
10.68​
11.56​
75 to 8411.5013.96
14.70​
16.29​
19.29​
22.51​
21.29​
22.05​
85+19.6124.28
25.92​
26.16​
30.39​
37.26​
36.62​
36.18​
Click to expand...

People do care but dont spend there every waking hour worrying about it and and these people shouldnt be sneered at for living there ives the way they see fit
 
I know you don’t agree with the models but the data you’ve posted shows hospitalisations generally dropping (slightly) over the last 3 weeks…what did the models predict again?
 
Locke's SAFC said:
'Difficult one to call. If vaccine effectiveness wanes, which is what is being reported, is it better to get them out around November to cover the worst months December and January?
Click to expand...
You’d think do it ASAP n it will last throughout winter?
 
DoctorMick said:
I know you don’t agree with the models but the data you’ve posted shows hospitalisations generally dropping (slightly) over the last 3 weeks…what did the models predict again?
Click to expand...

It's not case of not agreeing with them. These people know a thing or two about the science of this. It's more that even they are keen to state that the models are subject to many, many underlying assumptions and as such caution should be taken when looking at them. As a result, I don't place all of my faith in them.

Many of the models had a continued decline starting at the beginning of September, which hasn't happened. Do you have a particular model in mind? I know you posted one a few days back?
Reubens tasche said:
You’d think do it ASAP n it will last throughout winter?
Click to expand...

'Possibly. It's weighing up giving them now and by the time we reach December they'll be around 65% effective or waiting to November and they'll be much more effective during the worst months. I can understand why they're holding off at the moment. The vaccines not being anywhere near as effective in the months when respiratory illnesses do their worst, and when there are more viruses doing the rounds, could be too much of a risk to take.
 
Last edited:
Where I struggle with all of this, is there is no precedent for the amount of data being flung around about Covid. If that table in the OP compared it to cases vs prostate cancer, or flu, or road accidents then it might give it more perspective.
 
Droderick said:
Where I struggle with all of this, is there is no precedent for the amount of data being flung around about Covid. If that table in the OP compared it to cases vs prostate cancer, or flu, or road accidents then it might give it more perspective.
Click to expand...
Pre-Covid there were roughly 30,000 deaths each year in the UK due to flu.

Probably the closest thing you can compare it to.
 
lackingmatchpractice said:
You'd be surprised - usually in the 26k to 30k range.

Deaths from influenza and pneumonia 2015-2020 - Office for National Statistics

www.ons.gov.uk
Click to expand...

Those figures are misleading if not interpreted correctly. It refers to deaths where the underlying cause on the death certificate was within the ICD-10 group entitled “influenza and pneumonia” but since not every death within that group is influenza, it would not be appropriate to use that figure, as a proxy for a number of influenza deaths.

You may see in that table that almost all of those 30k deaths are pneumonia not influenza

PHE publish yearly reports on the estimated number of deaths attributable to influenza

www.gov.uk

Surveillance of influenza and other seasonal respiratory viruses in the UK

UKHSA publishes overviews each year of influenza surveillance results from the winter period.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

In some years it’s as low as 10k, in some as high as 30k but I would caution using the whole of the aforementioned ICD-10 group as influenza deaths
 
Last edited:

Back
Top