Highest Open Play xG In The Division
- Thread starter The Situation
- Start date
The Situation
Striker
I hope he didn't catch you with his dodgy knees
He didn't need to, as soon as he roared at me I shat myself and was gone!
The Situation
Striker
Well, Portsmouth's high and intense press as identified, certainly caused us issues early doors! Ironically, the state of the pitch may have helped a bit as it was impossible to keep up that sort of press for much longer than they managed it for, especially on such a heavy pitch.
Time to look ahead to Bolton.
Numbers:
- Bolton have won their last 2 in a row, but aside from that haven't won a league game since November 23rd (Doncaster). They are 20th on the form table over the last 6 league games, and 16th over the last 10.
- They are a mainly attacking team, posting really good open play xG numbers. In fact, their open play xG is 6th in L1 at 27.2 and they've scored 28 goals, so their numbers are matching up.
- They have the 12th best defensive open play xG numbers, 2 places better than us! Their xG open play conceded is 24.1 and they've conceded 28 from open play, so they've been a little bit unfortunate to have conceded as many as they have.
- On set pieces, they are very solid on the xG numbers. They have the 6th best defensive set piece numbers in L1 at 5.7. Attacking set pieces have been one of our strong points having scored 12 from same, so this might be one avenue we usually look to that we potentially won't have much success from this weekend.
Play Style:
- Bolton play a slow and intricate style. Only MK Dons do that more. They're basically the polar opposite to the style we usually struggle against which is the fast and direct style (e.g. Wycombe, Rotherham, Accrington). In theory this should be good news, but Lincoln are almost an exact replica of that Bolton play style and we all know what happened there (although they have different pressing rates etc).
- They are basically mid-table in terms of frequency of pressing. They pick and choose there moments rather than having an all-guns out approach like Portsmouth. They are right alongside us on their pressing numbers. Almost identical pressing frequency numbers, turnovers less than 40m from their opponents goal, and goals from high turnovers.
- I think they'll be looking to keep the ball away from us for as long as possible, build up slowly, drag us out of position and frustrate us.
- Overall, they are very, very similar to us in almost all areas of play style. Maybe Evatt will come up with something different, but you can only move away from your own style of play so much in the course of a week.
Players:
- Oladapo Afolayan frightens the shite out of me. He's a left winger with 8 goals and 4 assists this season and is just a nightmare to deal with. I fear he could do a lot of damage to Gooch or Wright. He's 4th in L1 for chances created per 90 minutes and 2nd only to Rotherham's Ogbene when you remove players who don't have anywhere close to his minutes total. He is posting similar expected assist numbers to the likes of Pritchard which is some going for a winger. He also tops the league in carries, and the number of carries that ended in a shot or key pass. I've hardly seen him play, but from the numbers alone I'd imagine he's a player that is flagging up on data models for plenty of clubs.
- No one else really jumps out, although it's probably worth noting that they did sign Dion Charles who is someone who has caused us trouble in the past and scored their last minute winner against Shrewsbury at the weekend.
- I always like to look at GK's and Bolton's is interesting. They've recently signed James Trafford, who lost his place to the excellent Toby Savin at Accrington. Trafford was close to being the worst GK in the entire division during his time at Accrington, having a goals prevented rate of a whopping -7.4. This is so high that I had to double and triple check it was correct. He's had a good start at Bolton and the fresh start may have helped, as he has prevented 1.5 goals from only 2 games. It's too small a sample size to really get anything from, but if he starts to even get close to his Accrington performances, he's a definite weakness.
TL;DR:
- Bolton play a slow and intricate build up style and are extremely similar to us in terms of build-up, pressing etc.
- Their left winger, Afolayan, looks like a serious threat. They've recently signed Dion Charles who scored a last minute winner at the weekend and has caused us problems before.
- Their new GK was atrocious during his time at Accrington but has started well for Bolton.
Time to look ahead to Bolton.
Numbers:
- Bolton have won their last 2 in a row, but aside from that haven't won a league game since November 23rd (Doncaster). They are 20th on the form table over the last 6 league games, and 16th over the last 10.
- They are a mainly attacking team, posting really good open play xG numbers. In fact, their open play xG is 6th in L1 at 27.2 and they've scored 28 goals, so their numbers are matching up.
- They have the 12th best defensive open play xG numbers, 2 places better than us! Their xG open play conceded is 24.1 and they've conceded 28 from open play, so they've been a little bit unfortunate to have conceded as many as they have.
- On set pieces, they are very solid on the xG numbers. They have the 6th best defensive set piece numbers in L1 at 5.7. Attacking set pieces have been one of our strong points having scored 12 from same, so this might be one avenue we usually look to that we potentially won't have much success from this weekend.
Play Style:
- Bolton play a slow and intricate style. Only MK Dons do that more. They're basically the polar opposite to the style we usually struggle against which is the fast and direct style (e.g. Wycombe, Rotherham, Accrington). In theory this should be good news, but Lincoln are almost an exact replica of that Bolton play style and we all know what happened there (although they have different pressing rates etc).
- They are basically mid-table in terms of frequency of pressing. They pick and choose there moments rather than having an all-guns out approach like Portsmouth. They are right alongside us on their pressing numbers. Almost identical pressing frequency numbers, turnovers less than 40m from their opponents goal, and goals from high turnovers.
- I think they'll be looking to keep the ball away from us for as long as possible, build up slowly, drag us out of position and frustrate us.
- Overall, they are very, very similar to us in almost all areas of play style. Maybe Evatt will come up with something different, but you can only move away from your own style of play so much in the course of a week.
Players:
- Oladapo Afolayan frightens the shite out of me. He's a left winger with 8 goals and 4 assists this season and is just a nightmare to deal with. I fear he could do a lot of damage to Gooch or Wright. He's 4th in L1 for chances created per 90 minutes and 2nd only to Rotherham's Ogbene when you remove players who don't have anywhere close to his minutes total. He is posting similar expected assist numbers to the likes of Pritchard which is some going for a winger. He also tops the league in carries, and the number of carries that ended in a shot or key pass. I've hardly seen him play, but from the numbers alone I'd imagine he's a player that is flagging up on data models for plenty of clubs.
- No one else really jumps out, although it's probably worth noting that they did sign Dion Charles who is someone who has caused us trouble in the past and scored their last minute winner against Shrewsbury at the weekend.
- I always like to look at GK's and Bolton's is interesting. They've recently signed James Trafford, who lost his place to the excellent Toby Savin at Accrington. Trafford was close to being the worst GK in the entire division during his time at Accrington, having a goals prevented rate of a whopping -7.4. This is so high that I had to double and triple check it was correct. He's had a good start at Bolton and the fresh start may have helped, as he has prevented 1.5 goals from only 2 games. It's too small a sample size to really get anything from, but if he starts to even get close to his Accrington performances, he's a definite weakness.
TL;DR:
- Bolton play a slow and intricate build up style and are extremely similar to us in terms of build-up, pressing etc.
- Their left winger, Afolayan, looks like a serious threat. They've recently signed Dion Charles who scored a last minute winner at the weekend and has caused us problems before.
- Their new GK was atrocious during his time at Accrington but has started well for Bolton.
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The Situation
Striker
Goal and assist for Afolayan. He looks a very decent player.
The Situation
Striker
Haven't updated this in ages.
After having a look at Plymouth yesterday morning I posted that they rarely press and would be happy to sit in and make us break them down which proved to be the case.
With such a big game for us coming up against Cambridge at the weekend, why not give this a bump?
Some things that may be of interest:
- Cambridge are the lowest pressing team in the entire division. Basically, they don't press at all and will force us to break them down.
- They have played a 4-2-3-1 in 31 games this season.
- In terms of an attacking style compared to a team we have played recently, they are almost identical to Shrewsbury. They are a direct team but unlike a Wycombe or a Gillingham who want to go long as quickly as possible, they will have a few more passes per sequence before bombing it.
- They look to attack down their left hand side a lot. I know it probably seems like I'm picking on him, but if Neil starts Winchester as the right sided CB in a 3 (and he probably will do so given that Cambridge don't press), he will need to pick his RWB accordingly.
- Queue a prime Casillas performance after posting this, but their keeper, Mitov, seems to be awful with one of the worst goals prevented rates in the division. He is especially poor from long range shots so we should shoot on sight which will probably be a viable strategy if they are dropping deep as expected.
- Their striker, Joe Ironside, is a very good finisher and is up there with the biggest names in the division in terms of his conversion rate. Every one of his goals have come inside the box so if we give him a chance in there, he's likely to score.
Overall, whilst they are in good form at the moment, they have lost heavily to Wycombe twice (4-1 and 3-0), Sheffield Wednesday (6-0) and Oxford (4-2) in recent weeks also.
They will probably look to target our right hand side as they often base their attacks down their left anyway, and presuming we play Winchester, him and whoever our RWB is on the day will need to be on it.
Ultimately, they are a direct side who will keep the ball a bit longer than a Wycombe or Rotherham type side before going long.
It seems clear that they will allow us to have the ball and force us to try and break them down before trying to break quickly down our right hand side when they gain possession.
As their keeper is so susceptible to long shots, it may be a strike outside the box that is our best route to success.
After having a look at Plymouth yesterday morning I posted that they rarely press and would be happy to sit in and make us break them down which proved to be the case.
With such a big game for us coming up against Cambridge at the weekend, why not give this a bump?
Some things that may be of interest:
- Cambridge are the lowest pressing team in the entire division. Basically, they don't press at all and will force us to break them down.
- They have played a 4-2-3-1 in 31 games this season.
- In terms of an attacking style compared to a team we have played recently, they are almost identical to Shrewsbury. They are a direct team but unlike a Wycombe or a Gillingham who want to go long as quickly as possible, they will have a few more passes per sequence before bombing it.
- They look to attack down their left hand side a lot. I know it probably seems like I'm picking on him, but if Neil starts Winchester as the right sided CB in a 3 (and he probably will do so given that Cambridge don't press), he will need to pick his RWB accordingly.
- Queue a prime Casillas performance after posting this, but their keeper, Mitov, seems to be awful with one of the worst goals prevented rates in the division. He is especially poor from long range shots so we should shoot on sight which will probably be a viable strategy if they are dropping deep as expected.
- Their striker, Joe Ironside, is a very good finisher and is up there with the biggest names in the division in terms of his conversion rate. Every one of his goals have come inside the box so if we give him a chance in there, he's likely to score.
Overall, whilst they are in good form at the moment, they have lost heavily to Wycombe twice (4-1 and 3-0), Sheffield Wednesday (6-0) and Oxford (4-2) in recent weeks also.
They will probably look to target our right hand side as they often base their attacks down their left anyway, and presuming we play Winchester, him and whoever our RWB is on the day will need to be on it.
Ultimately, they are a direct side who will keep the ball a bit longer than a Wycombe or Rotherham type side before going long.
It seems clear that they will allow us to have the ball and force us to try and break them down before trying to break quickly down our right hand side when they gain possession.
As their keeper is so susceptible to long shots, it may be a strike outside the box that is our best route to success.
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Mackem00
Striker
Interesting stuff mate. Nice one.
Mickdundee
Winger
Got to hope we have Pritchard available if this is the case. Might be worth bringing Dan Neil into the side as well.
Ted Lassos Tache
Central Defender
Insightful, cheers for that
sessafc
Midfield
Interesting, thanks for the write up. Hopefully we start like we did against Shrewsbury.
chuckyroll
Striker
And don't switch off
The Situation
Striker
Pritchard is also one of the most creative players in the division.
So whilst he'd give us that accuracy from long-range, he'd also be the one player in our squad (aside from McGeady who is obviously not an option) who you'd back to unlock a defence that is likely to sit back and make us break them down.
The Situation
Striker
Well, the numbers didn't lie about Mitov anyway.
One of the worst GK performances I've seen at the Stadium of Light in quite a while!
The Situation
Striker
Sorry I didn't have time to get the Rotherham preview up with it being a midweek game, but it was probably no secret to anyone that they would go direct as quickly as possible, press non-stop, generate breaks in play to be used as chances to rest for as long as possible, and generally just be so difficult to play against!
Anyway, we got out with a point and on we go to Morecambe, with a playoff place still in our own hands:
General
- Morecambe generally play a 4-3-3 formation (33 times this season) and will sometimes play a 3/5 at the back (8 times this season). All of their last recent games have been a 4-3-3 lineup (aside from a 4-2-3-1 against Charlton), so it's likely they will go with 4-3-3 again, but don't be hugely surprised if they switch it up to match our formation as they have some experience of playing same.
- They have taken 29 points from their 22 games at home (7W, 8D, 7L) which is 18th in the division
Attacking & Defensive Numbers
- In terms of attacking numbers, they are 16th in the division for open play attacking xG (35.8) and they have scored 38 goals from open play, so they aren't really out or under performing their attacking numbers.
- In terms of defensive numbers, Morecambe rank 19th for open play defensive xG at a rate of 45.9, however, they have actually conceded 59 goals from open play this season which is joint most in the league. That's a massive 13 goals difference so they've either been extremely unlucky or something is amiss (e.g. very poor goalkeeping), much more on this later.
Play Style
- Morecambe do not press at all. Only Cambridge, Cheltenham and Gillingham have a lower pressing figure. They're very similar to Cambridge and Shrewsbury for example in terms of teams we've played recently, but they will look to get the ball forward a bit quicker than the aforementioned. I would be suggesting here that it's going to be another one of those games whereby the opposition will sit in, look to frustrate us and force us to break them down. They are 18/1 to go down so it will take a highly unusual set of results for them to drop. Therefore I wouldn't expect them to change style too much with that in mind. It would be different obviously if they needed a win.
- As mentioned above, their attacking style is fast and direct. They don't lump it as quick as a Rotherham or Wycombe, but they are faster doing it than a Shrewsbury or Cambridge. Only Rotherham, Wycombe, Burton, Gillingham and Accrington have less passes per sequence than Morecambe. They pose very much a traditional "League One" style.
Players
- Stockton is the one who obviously jumps out given his goals record (23). However, all may not be what it seems. You might be surprised to know that he doesn't appear on any key xG stat! I don't have access to the latest figures, but throughout the season he had been vastly outperforming his xG and at one stage I saw his goals tally was almost double his expected goals figure. Given that he's 28 and in 11 years had never scored more than 13 in any league campaign until this year, it suggested that this season has been a massive outlier and for that reason, I wouldn't be going near him if I was in charge of recruitment for a Championship or League One club with promotion ambitions.
- With that said about Stockton, he has still done the business this year and his numbers suggest he has been consistently scoring from difficult chances and his finishing has been very good. I would be amazed if it continued past this season as per above, but that is of no comfort to us when we play them in a few days! Everything he seems to touch these days ends up going in!
- Other than Stockton, their CM Adam Phillips on loan from Burnley is canny, but as you could probably expect from a team in their position, there understandably aren't many others that jump out.
- As always I like to look at keepers and we've identified Mitov as being a huge weak link last week. You might remember Morecambe's keeper, Kyle Letheren, from the game up at our place. He was massively overweight and looked, and played, like a Sunday league GK. Prior to the beginning of January, he was in and out of their starting 11 and during that period had one of the worst goals prevented rates in the division at a similar rate to the likes of Mitov and Hladcky (who had a nightmare at Ipswich after being signed as first choice). Unbelievable, Morecambe actually had a worse GK in Jokull Andersson who shared duties with Letheren and had an even worse goals prevented rate than the Welshman! This single-handedly explains the difference in their defensive xG and actual goals conceded numbers as mentioned earlier. Unfortunately for us, Morecambe finally lost patience, got rid of both and brought in Trevor Carson plus a new 2nd choice in January and that has solved their issue. Carson is nothing special, performing at an average rate, but average probably feels like Allisson to Morecambe's fans now! If they had Carson from game 1, they'd likely have well over 50 points now.
Overall
- They generally play 4-3-3 but have played the 3/5 at the back on 8 occasions this season. There is a chance they'll do the same again to match our formation.
- Morecambe won't press. They'll sit back and force us to break them down. They are 18/1 to go down on the final day so know it will take a mad set of results. With their GD, a draw would suit them, so I can't see them coming out and having too much of a go.
- They're a direct side, and will look to get the ball forward quickly.
- Stockton is their danger man but is vastly outperforming his xG all season to have a season unlike any other of his 11 years as a professional. He is more likely to score a worldie than a tap-in, but nonetheless his goals record this season does need to be respected and he's going to be a threat. Everything he touches seems to inexplicably go in this season!
- Adam Phillips, their CM, is a good player.
- Morecambe suffered massively with GK issues for the first half of the season, but have since brought in our ex-player Trevor Carson who whilst performing pretty averagely, has been a huge improvement. They would have had 50+ points and been comfortably safe long ago without the GK mess they had until January.
Anyway, we got out with a point and on we go to Morecambe, with a playoff place still in our own hands:
General
- Morecambe generally play a 4-3-3 formation (33 times this season) and will sometimes play a 3/5 at the back (8 times this season). All of their last recent games have been a 4-3-3 lineup (aside from a 4-2-3-1 against Charlton), so it's likely they will go with 4-3-3 again, but don't be hugely surprised if they switch it up to match our formation as they have some experience of playing same.
- They have taken 29 points from their 22 games at home (7W, 8D, 7L) which is 18th in the division
Attacking & Defensive Numbers
- In terms of attacking numbers, they are 16th in the division for open play attacking xG (35.8) and they have scored 38 goals from open play, so they aren't really out or under performing their attacking numbers.
- In terms of defensive numbers, Morecambe rank 19th for open play defensive xG at a rate of 45.9, however, they have actually conceded 59 goals from open play this season which is joint most in the league. That's a massive 13 goals difference so they've either been extremely unlucky or something is amiss (e.g. very poor goalkeeping), much more on this later.
Play Style
- Morecambe do not press at all. Only Cambridge, Cheltenham and Gillingham have a lower pressing figure. They're very similar to Cambridge and Shrewsbury for example in terms of teams we've played recently, but they will look to get the ball forward a bit quicker than the aforementioned. I would be suggesting here that it's going to be another one of those games whereby the opposition will sit in, look to frustrate us and force us to break them down. They are 18/1 to go down so it will take a highly unusual set of results for them to drop. Therefore I wouldn't expect them to change style too much with that in mind. It would be different obviously if they needed a win.
- As mentioned above, their attacking style is fast and direct. They don't lump it as quick as a Rotherham or Wycombe, but they are faster doing it than a Shrewsbury or Cambridge. Only Rotherham, Wycombe, Burton, Gillingham and Accrington have less passes per sequence than Morecambe. They pose very much a traditional "League One" style.
Players
- Stockton is the one who obviously jumps out given his goals record (23). However, all may not be what it seems. You might be surprised to know that he doesn't appear on any key xG stat! I don't have access to the latest figures, but throughout the season he had been vastly outperforming his xG and at one stage I saw his goals tally was almost double his expected goals figure. Given that he's 28 and in 11 years had never scored more than 13 in any league campaign until this year, it suggested that this season has been a massive outlier and for that reason, I wouldn't be going near him if I was in charge of recruitment for a Championship or League One club with promotion ambitions.
- With that said about Stockton, he has still done the business this year and his numbers suggest he has been consistently scoring from difficult chances and his finishing has been very good. I would be amazed if it continued past this season as per above, but that is of no comfort to us when we play them in a few days! Everything he seems to touch these days ends up going in!
- Other than Stockton, their CM Adam Phillips on loan from Burnley is canny, but as you could probably expect from a team in their position, there understandably aren't many others that jump out.
- As always I like to look at keepers and we've identified Mitov as being a huge weak link last week. You might remember Morecambe's keeper, Kyle Letheren, from the game up at our place. He was massively overweight and looked, and played, like a Sunday league GK. Prior to the beginning of January, he was in and out of their starting 11 and during that period had one of the worst goals prevented rates in the division at a similar rate to the likes of Mitov and Hladcky (who had a nightmare at Ipswich after being signed as first choice). Unbelievable, Morecambe actually had a worse GK in Jokull Andersson who shared duties with Letheren and had an even worse goals prevented rate than the Welshman! This single-handedly explains the difference in their defensive xG and actual goals conceded numbers as mentioned earlier. Unfortunately for us, Morecambe finally lost patience, got rid of both and brought in Trevor Carson plus a new 2nd choice in January and that has solved their issue. Carson is nothing special, performing at an average rate, but average probably feels like Allisson to Morecambe's fans now! If they had Carson from game 1, they'd likely have well over 50 points now.
Overall
- They generally play 4-3-3 but have played the 3/5 at the back on 8 occasions this season. There is a chance they'll do the same again to match our formation.
- Morecambe won't press. They'll sit back and force us to break them down. They are 18/1 to go down on the final day so know it will take a mad set of results. With their GD, a draw would suit them, so I can't see them coming out and having too much of a go.
- They're a direct side, and will look to get the ball forward quickly.
- Stockton is their danger man but is vastly outperforming his xG all season to have a season unlike any other of his 11 years as a professional. He is more likely to score a worldie than a tap-in, but nonetheless his goals record this season does need to be respected and he's going to be a threat. Everything he touches seems to inexplicably go in this season!
- Adam Phillips, their CM, is a good player.
- Morecambe suffered massively with GK issues for the first half of the season, but have since brought in our ex-player Trevor Carson who whilst performing pretty averagely, has been a huge improvement. They would have had 50+ points and been comfortably safe long ago without the GK mess they had until January.
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