Herd immunity, letting infection spread while deaths still happening
Harry Angstrom
Striker
Herd immunity is the goal surely?Herd immunity was always a crazy strategy, and meant UK was back of the class when it came to testing.
What I dont get is why with all the world warning the UK they persisted in that strategy, when this is all done and dusted there needs to be an enquiry into how the "leading science experts" in the country could have been so wrong in the face of such overwhelming evidence in the rest of the world:
Boris Johnson's government failed to impose mass coronavirus testing after being told that COVID-19 was only a 'moderate' risk to the UK
The UK is currently testing less than 10,000 people a day for the coronavirus compared to 500,000 people a week in Germany.www.businessinsider.com
It most definitely is the target. Just like for measles, mumps etc etc.
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Beery
Striker
yeah they are only 4 and 3 times ours per % pop
I replied to your earlier post, by the way but the answers are the quote in case you missed them
Isn't Measles and Mumps by vaccine? I don't think have measles parties do they? Are you thinking of chicken pox?
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Harry Angstrom
Striker
Yes. The goal is still herd immunity. If the vaccine isn't available for the foreseeable future then we are going to have to get back on with life. The vulnerable will have to isolate or take their chances. If we get say 60% of population with immunity then the risks of transmission are much lower.
Pointless being locked down for years, especially if you are already old.
Brian Griffin
Striker
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
I think it is as we can't continue the lockdown with a vaccine. There's various news about vaccines but if they don't come then sadly they
This! Even if the lockdown is relaxed we won't be seeing all the footy leagues suddenly rushing back to play and all restaurants, pubs etc opening thinking everything will be back to normal and they can book a holiday.
There's already the PCR test to see if you've got it of course which will be ramped up and there's the antigen tests as well I think. It's the antibody test that will help move this along once it's rolled out to the masses but it's needs to be reliable but will they drop the requirement levels they require like some countries? They certainly can't just keep everyone in current lockdown to protect them as it will cause unrest and more people will take the piss. That will allow people to get on with normal life and this would be a big benefit to their mental health along with the economy.
We need people people to still get infected plus infection rate will have slowed down dramatically since lockdown. If the oldies/vulnerables are more vigilant and still self isolate or are well protected even if the venture out then those getting infected and requiring medical assistance will be smaller again. The young & healthy still have a very high chance of just brushing it off or getting the best treatment as it's well within the limits of the NHS. Some may die sadly but it won't be at the levels we're currently seeing now due to the demographics of those who've been dying (not just UK, worldwide). The NHS is being overwhelmed in areas (I know about the 10 year political shite but can all that be fixed this instant?) but still coping well to some degree. That's also because many other NHS related stuff has been pushed aside or delayed, such as my Mam's cancer treatment. They can't keep doing that but when they resume normal NHS services they will still have some capacity to deal with the extra work load of the infected.
There is an app in development that tracks people using their phone. It will allows people to be told if they'd been in the vicinity of someone in the past who's now tested positive. That means they can go get tested as soon as possible to ensure the don't spread it any more. There may even be mask requirements in crowded places once the demand for medical services has subsided and the public can use them. Same goes for temperature checking like other countries as it may help catch people and there's other measures that can be used to help allow people back out of the lockdown and potentially increase the time for another one and cut down the frequency of them. This may mean doing things you may not necessarily do but if I haven't already had it, I'd quite happily walk about in a mask and gloves while being tracked, getting my temperature checked though not anally, if it meant I could move about with far more freedom
It's just a waiting game at the moment but hopefully there's light at the end of this f***ing horrible tunnel!
Scorer
Striker
True but there will be a second wave here too, hopefully we’ll be better equipped to deal with it by then.
It wouldn't surprise me if the govt follow the strategy set out by both ICL and LSHTM to have on/off lockdowns, instigated when we reach a certain % of ICU capacity, and lifted when we fall below a certain % of ICU capacity.
Beery
Striker
what are the other countries tests proving just binary snapshot - you have it or don't?
Brian Griffin
Striker
That you have it ‘right now’. And we do test for that, at hospital.
Other countries do not have tests to tell you if you have had it.
So go through my questions again, and answer them all with that knowledge.
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offmenut
Striker
It's certainly not shite mate.Thanks for thatI type fast and find it hard sometimes be far more concise so posts just grow and grow!
People can ignore it or skip it but I do know some do read certain posts no matter how long and can take whatever they want from it. If I'm helping someone else through this or giving them some info now and then then I'm happy to take the flack from others who may think it strange or sad. I've seen the 2 stickies at the top of this forum but stuff like that isn't for me but it shows I'm not the only one who is affected in some way. I'll not be doing this shit once it's all over and my days of scrutinising footy to the miniscule won't be as bad as they once were either people will be pleased to know
You see, a long post just like that! Plus I'm on a large screen so it doesn't look as big but I bet a phone is a f***ing nightmare for some
And if it helps you, all well and good.
I come on this board a lot to get info, but too much on here makes me so depressed, lots of posters (perhaps quite rightly) scared and desperate to slate the gvt and its handling of things (which is the opposite of people I spk to in real life) so I have to try and skate over quite a lot of political posts.
Weather people like it or not some degree of herd immunity will have to be achieved. The virus is going nowhere we cannot hide for 18 months till a vaccine. We are only in lockdown to try give the nhs a chance, not to stop the virus all together.
And what would testing the general population do at this point? I get nhs staff needing to know if positive or negative but thats about it.
The test to see if people have had it is more important than the straight positive/negative test.
And what would testing the general population do at this point? I get nhs staff needing to know if positive or negative but thats about it.
The test to see if people have had it is more important than the straight positive/negative test.
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What would testing achieve? Something clouding your judgement there mate?
FootballFan
Striker
Well technically yes, but the usual herd immunity by vaccination, not the crazy version the UK scientists had planned, when even Trump can see the issue you know you are in trouble.
"If you remember, they were looking at that concept - I guess it's a concept if you don't mind death, a lot of death - but they were looking at that in the UK, remember,"
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D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
Test x 3
Harry Angstrom
Striker
I dont see any alternative. It will be controlled but there will definitely be death.
FootballFan
Striker
The idea now is to buy time for testing, development of anti-viral treatments, and ultimately vaccine, IMO obviously.
Edit - and limit the death.
Osklen
Winger
I think it is as we can't continue the lockdown with a vaccine. There's various news about vaccines but if they don't come then sadly they
This! Even if the lockdown is relaxed we won't be seeing all the footy leagues suddenly rushing back to play and all restaurants, pubs etc opening thinking everything will be back to normal and they can book a holiday.
There's already the PCR test to see if you've got it of course which will be ramped up and there's the antigen tests as well I think. It's the antibody test that will help move this along once it's rolled out to the masses but it's needs to be reliable but will they drop the requirement levels they require like some countries? They certainly can't just keep everyone in current lockdown to protect them as it will cause unrest and more people will take the piss. That will allow people to get on with normal life and this would be a big benefit to their mental health along with the economy.
We need people people to still get infected plus infection rate will have slowed down dramatically since lockdown. If the oldies/vulnerables are more vigilant and still self isolate or are well protected even if the venture out then those getting infected and requiring medical assistance will be smaller again. The young & healthy still have a very high chance of just brushing it off or getting the best treatment as it's well within the limits of the NHS. Some may die sadly but it won't be at the levels we're currently seeing now due to the demographics of those who've been dying (not just UK, worldwide). The NHS is being overwhelmed in areas (I know about the 10 year political shite but can all that be fixed this instant?) but still coping well to some degree. That's also because many other NHS related stuff has been pushed aside or delayed, such as my Mam's cancer treatment. They can't keep doing that but when they resume normal NHS services they will still have some capacity to deal with the extra work load of the infected.
There is an app in development that tracks people using their phone. It will allows people to be told if they'd been in the vicinity of someone in the past who's now tested positive. That means they can go get tested as soon as possible to ensure the don't spread it any more. There may even be mask requirements in crowded places once the demand for medical services has subsided and the public can use them. Same goes for temperature checking like other countries as it may help catch people and there's other measures that can be used to help allow people back out of the lockdown and potentially increase the time for another one and cut down the frequency of them. This may mean doing things you may not necessarily do but if I haven't already had it, I'd quite happily walk about in a mask and gloves while being tracked, getting my temperature checked though not anally, if it meant I could move about with far more freedom
It's just a waiting game at the moment but hopefully there's light at the end of this f***ing horrible tunnel!
The main issue is still not so much the oldies but those who care for people or who have someone in their household who is at high risk. How can you expect someone to go back to work in the knowledge they could get it and pass it on to a loved one?
Some quiet difficult decisions for people when the lockdown is lifted.
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
I certainly think there will be future lockdowns given the various methods that are being talked about to catch infection before it spreads. Hopefully if they then do have to increase measures it won't be the lockdown of the kind we have now and still allows some freedom. We had to do this lockdown as even the extra trickle of infections that is happening now would be enough to overwhelm the NHS. It's that bottle of water analogy some bloke made in a video.
People may well die but who can say what an 'acceptable' number is against the cost of the whole nation? There's no vaccine (though some good stories about development might be quicker) so people can't hide forever. There needs to be balance for the sake of the populations well being and the national economy during and after all this. Some may be able to restrict exposure when measures are relaxed but some may not have a choice of hiding away even if the government pay 80% of wages or give grants/tax relief for example.
Harry Angstrom
Striker
Yes but ultimately we will have to get on with it. Sooner rather than later.
