Why do you keep referring to that formula?
This isn’t a dig by the way, I just find it really odd.
If you look at it alternatively, Leicestershire’s RPW is 42.2, compared to ours which is 101.63 - because let’s remember the important fact that all things aren’t equal. Their batsmen don’t face their bowlers, ours do. In 169.5 overs, their attack has only taken 8 wickets. Our bowlers took 10 in 109.4.
That highlights the next fact to consider, that Leicestershire’s RPW versus our attack including Potts (is 14.5), as opposed to their RPW versus our attack excluding Potts (which is 83.75) and you’ll see there are quite vast and significant differences.
It was sunny yesterday, whereas it was cloudy today - another pretty important consideration given the behaviour of a cricket ball.
There are far too many variables at play, but ultimately Leicestershire are going to need to score ATLEAST 392 tomorrow in a maximum of 96 overs at a rate of 4.08 or better to beat us. I’m comfortable with an overnight declaration. If it doesn’t rain, they’ve still got to overcome Potts, Raine and Toole with a new ball on a wearing pitch that is already showing signs of uneven bounce, if that doesn’t stop them, they’ll have to also overcome Parkinson, Trevaskis and maybe even Borthwick on a Day 4 pitch that has been turning more and more since Day 1.
Who’s position would you rather be in?
I’ve always been a bit of a pessimist when it comes to my sports teams, which leads me to always exercise caution, but I can’t see us batting further and that feels like the right decision. I get that we don’t NEED to win and I also get that a defeat would mean Leicestershire close right behind us (whilst also giving Sussex or Glamorgan the chance to close in) but the saying goes that fortune favours the brave and it would be a crying shame if after three days of controlling this fixture we settle for a draw.
As Ryan Campbell said, draws don’t win you titles. More to the point, it feels like one more win will pretty much secure promotion and given our injury problems it wouldn’t half be nice to not have to be scrapping for points with a depleted side come September.
AND after all of that, I still expect that a rain ruined final day will mean a 13 point draw in any case