Can anyone work out the % probability for me?

High Entropy said:
That's not what he asked, he said they pick 10 items, not one, then another, then another, you're making it unnecessarily complicated.
Imagine a big lottery tumbler, with 6000 balls and it drops 10 balls at once - 5% chance (300/1) one of those 10 is one of his 2 items
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Its an interesting thought, selecting them all instantaneously.

Should it make a difference to picking them one by one? I don't think so. So I think my version still holds up.
 


High Entropy said:
That's not what he asked, he said they pick 10 items, not one, then another, then another, you're making it unnecessarily complicated.

Imagine a big lottery tumbler, with 6000 balls and it drops 10 balls at once - 5% chance (300/1) one of those 10 is one of his 2 items
Click to expand...
It doesn't make any difference whether you pick 10 at once or 15 minutes apart.

And 300/1 is not 5%. 20/1 is 5%
 
NYMackem said:
It doesn't make any difference whether you pick 10 at once or 15 minutes apart.

And 300/1 is not 5%. 20/1 is 5%
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It does, you're talking about chance and probability, they're not the same thing.

If you flip a coin the chances of heads are 50/50 and next time you flip those chances are the same 50/50 and again the next time the odds are still 50/50 BUT the chances/probability of 3 heads in a row are not 50/50 - one is chance, the other is probability.

and 300/1 is 5%
 
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High Entropy said:
It does, you're talking about chance and probability, they're not the same thing.

If you flip a coin the chances of heads are 50/50 and next time you flip those chances are the same 50/50 and again the next time the odds are still 50/50 BUT the chances/probability of 3 heads in a row are not 50/50 - one is chance, the other is probability.

and 300/1 is 5%
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:eek:

Chance and probability are literally two different words for the same thing.

Your coin example (while correct) does not disprove what I said. The odds of one coin flipping tails ten times in a row is exactly the same as the odds of ten coins being flipped at once and all landing on tails.

Please show your workings for how 300/1 is 5%.
 
NYMackem said:
:eek:

Chance and probability are literally two different words for the same thing.

Your coin example (while correct) does not disprove what I said. The odds of one coin flipping tails ten times in a row is exactly the same as the odds of ten coins being flipped at once and all landing on tails.

Please show your workings for how 300/1 is 5%.
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Chance and probability are not the same thing m8, a common misconception.

6000 ÷ 2 = 3000 ÷ 10 = 300 or 5% of 6000
 
High Entropy said:
Chance and probability are not the same thing m8, a common misconception.

6000 ÷ 2 = 3000 ÷ 10 = 300 or 5% of 6000
Click to expand...
300 / 6000 is 5%. But 300/1 means something else entirely and is equal to 0.33%.

Chance (the possibility something might happen) might be a slightly broader term than probability (the mathematical calculation of exactly how likely something is to happen) linguistically, but in the way you are using those words above they are interchangeable.
 

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